There are some other factors that you guys don't seem to be giving enough weight. With the talent gap between nfl teams so small, the team who plays at a higher level of energy should usually fair better than what is generally perceived.
So what can cause a team to either lower or raise their energy level?
First the obvious
Home teams with the help of the crowd play at a higher emotional level than road teams
A hard fought divisional game like Balt/Pitt should have a negative impact on Balt who also has to go on the road, add in that they are playing an uninspiring team like Sea. Look for Balt to have a letdown here like they did in Tenn.
A loss
Coming off a loss teams are likely to play angrier and thus with a raised energy level. Pitt is a good example here although they may have left a lot on the field with Balt, so the their game with Cincy is too tough to call. KC, after getting spanked in front of their fans will bring a lot of emotion this week when they play denver, that should be enough to put them over the edge in a game where the talent level is about even. Just look at what an angry Raider team did to the chargers the other night. Almostly certainly Phil will crush Arizona to avenge their monday night home loss. Monday night losses should hold more weight because it happened in front of the rest of the league. you know how players talk about respect and all, it will not be pretty for the cardinals.
After a letdown game.
How did the ravens play the following week after they phoned in their game against the titans? they crushed the rams 37-7. Saints had a letdown week 8 against the rams and came back to handily beat the bucs. No team really had a letdown in week 9 save the raiders and they already took care of business so there is no edge we can really apply here to this week but keep it in mind going forward.
Bye Week
As we have seen, early bye weeks don't seem to provide teams with much of an advantage but mid to late season byes are where the edge becomes more distinctive. Fresh teams should fair pretty well this weekend although I would not take the lions over the bears. (see momentum)
Travel
Road teams cannot feed of the intensity of the crowd like a home team can, but couple that with travel, and perhaps even a time change.. that factors in where NYG play SF this weekend.
Momentum / Morale
Teams on a roll can ride an emotional high wave indefinitely, gb has played at a high level all year and doesn't appear to be slowing, the bears have been playing better and better each week and should be able to ride that positive energy into their game with the lions. By the same token, a losing streak can affect the morale of a team that could outweigh the anger and have a negative affect on the team's play.
Of course energy level can only give a team so much of an advantage. WIth my picks I will go through the rest of the factors
Sea + 7 Balt Balt is due for an emotional letdown after a tough divisional game against Pitt. Sea is still a pretty bad team so that limits the confidence level of this play
Car -3 Tenn Car should bring a lot of energy and enthusiasm after their bye and Tenn's morale has to be pretty low. Cam Newton can play.
SF -3.5 NYG Not a strong play here because the giants at least have the better offensive talent. Here though they face a red hot 49er team with plenty of momentum and the energy of a sure to be fired up crowd.
NE + 2 NYJ Patriots a great example of how well a team can play when they are angry. Their record after a loss speaks for itself.
NO +1 Atl No emotional edge for either team here so the advantage goes to NO and their superior offense. Matt Ryan lacks the arm strength and the pocket presence to win in a shootout with Breeze. If you watch him closely this year you will see how he makes too many backfoot throws. Atl's DF is a little better but the talent gap on offense is what should decide this one.
I relate NFL betting to dogfighting... since World War I, the pilot with the higher E (energy) state usually wins the battle, and a good fighter knows to never push a bad situation.
Sometimes the best plays are non-bets.
Hou -3.5 TB On paper, it looks like an easy win for Hou, but an inter-conference road game does not give Hou a lot to play for though they are riding some strong momemtum, and they haven't had to expend a lot of energy in their past few games, TB however, is at home and has to be angry after being dominated by division rival NO. The edge goes to HOU with the league's best O-line but I can't see them getting that up for this one. At worst, I may make a small play on Hou as you have almost a dueling competition between two good running backs... not Foster vs Blount, Foster vs Tate.
Chic -3 Det As mentioned about Chic has some nice momentum and their offense is definitely clicking. They probably won't let down too much against a rival like Det but the possibility is still there. Det has some pretty bad O-line issues that so far they have been able to hide (having Calvin Johnson helps), but against a team with a good pass rush I see their offense really struggling this week even though they are fresh off a bye. This game will probably come down to the wire so it is too close to call. Slight advantage goes to Chic.
All in all I wouldn't say there are really that many strong plays this week.
Going forward I always like to bet on the side with the best o-line like NE, Hou, Car, and against teams with poor qbs. So what I look for is the perfect storm of energy advantage, good o-line play, and an elite qb. Df really only comes into the equation if you are dealing with Balt, NYJ, or Pitt, or the the total lack thereof with arizona, stl, indy.
Before you slam this analysis let's see how the games play out.
This has been a public service message.
Joe.
So what can cause a team to either lower or raise their energy level?
First the obvious
Home teams with the help of the crowd play at a higher emotional level than road teams
A hard fought divisional game like Balt/Pitt should have a negative impact on Balt who also has to go on the road, add in that they are playing an uninspiring team like Sea. Look for Balt to have a letdown here like they did in Tenn.
A loss
Coming off a loss teams are likely to play angrier and thus with a raised energy level. Pitt is a good example here although they may have left a lot on the field with Balt, so the their game with Cincy is too tough to call. KC, after getting spanked in front of their fans will bring a lot of emotion this week when they play denver, that should be enough to put them over the edge in a game where the talent level is about even. Just look at what an angry Raider team did to the chargers the other night. Almostly certainly Phil will crush Arizona to avenge their monday night home loss. Monday night losses should hold more weight because it happened in front of the rest of the league. you know how players talk about respect and all, it will not be pretty for the cardinals.
After a letdown game.
How did the ravens play the following week after they phoned in their game against the titans? they crushed the rams 37-7. Saints had a letdown week 8 against the rams and came back to handily beat the bucs. No team really had a letdown in week 9 save the raiders and they already took care of business so there is no edge we can really apply here to this week but keep it in mind going forward.
Bye Week
As we have seen, early bye weeks don't seem to provide teams with much of an advantage but mid to late season byes are where the edge becomes more distinctive. Fresh teams should fair pretty well this weekend although I would not take the lions over the bears. (see momentum)
Travel
Road teams cannot feed of the intensity of the crowd like a home team can, but couple that with travel, and perhaps even a time change.. that factors in where NYG play SF this weekend.
Momentum / Morale
Teams on a roll can ride an emotional high wave indefinitely, gb has played at a high level all year and doesn't appear to be slowing, the bears have been playing better and better each week and should be able to ride that positive energy into their game with the lions. By the same token, a losing streak can affect the morale of a team that could outweigh the anger and have a negative affect on the team's play.
Of course energy level can only give a team so much of an advantage. WIth my picks I will go through the rest of the factors
Sea + 7 Balt Balt is due for an emotional letdown after a tough divisional game against Pitt. Sea is still a pretty bad team so that limits the confidence level of this play
Car -3 Tenn Car should bring a lot of energy and enthusiasm after their bye and Tenn's morale has to be pretty low. Cam Newton can play.
SF -3.5 NYG Not a strong play here because the giants at least have the better offensive talent. Here though they face a red hot 49er team with plenty of momentum and the energy of a sure to be fired up crowd.
NE + 2 NYJ Patriots a great example of how well a team can play when they are angry. Their record after a loss speaks for itself.
NO +1 Atl No emotional edge for either team here so the advantage goes to NO and their superior offense. Matt Ryan lacks the arm strength and the pocket presence to win in a shootout with Breeze. If you watch him closely this year you will see how he makes too many backfoot throws. Atl's DF is a little better but the talent gap on offense is what should decide this one.
I relate NFL betting to dogfighting... since World War I, the pilot with the higher E (energy) state usually wins the battle, and a good fighter knows to never push a bad situation.
Sometimes the best plays are non-bets.
Hou -3.5 TB On paper, it looks like an easy win for Hou, but an inter-conference road game does not give Hou a lot to play for though they are riding some strong momemtum, and they haven't had to expend a lot of energy in their past few games, TB however, is at home and has to be angry after being dominated by division rival NO. The edge goes to HOU with the league's best O-line but I can't see them getting that up for this one. At worst, I may make a small play on Hou as you have almost a dueling competition between two good running backs... not Foster vs Blount, Foster vs Tate.
Chic -3 Det As mentioned about Chic has some nice momentum and their offense is definitely clicking. They probably won't let down too much against a rival like Det but the possibility is still there. Det has some pretty bad O-line issues that so far they have been able to hide (having Calvin Johnson helps), but against a team with a good pass rush I see their offense really struggling this week even though they are fresh off a bye. This game will probably come down to the wire so it is too close to call. Slight advantage goes to Chic.
All in all I wouldn't say there are really that many strong plays this week.
Going forward I always like to bet on the side with the best o-line like NE, Hou, Car, and against teams with poor qbs. So what I look for is the perfect storm of energy advantage, good o-line play, and an elite qb. Df really only comes into the equation if you are dealing with Balt, NYJ, or Pitt, or the the total lack thereof with arizona, stl, indy.
Before you slam this analysis let's see how the games play out.
This has been a public service message.
Joe.
