Saints -9 1/2

loopydude11 · 11-01-11, 08:52 PM

i'll be on this as well, Superdome Saints = freaking beasts

rwd201 · 11-01-11, 08:58 PM

-6@-160 win

MOONCRICKET · 11-01-11, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Many people are very understandably gun shy to bet on NO after that disaster last week, but...

NO is a COMPLETELY different monster at the Superdome. I'm thinking NO will bounce back from an ugly week 8 and win big at home. Tough to imagine this team struggling for the second straight week against an average team like the Bucs.

I'm taking the -9 1/2, and also Sains -3 1/2 in a teaser.

while you are right for sure about NO being a different animal at home there was much of the same bounce back talk regarding baltimore last week after laying an egg at jax. granted i'm not comparing the pedestrian balt offense to payton's bunch at home but both teams are of similar overall team strength within each respective conference.

i think the line begs TB which is why you have to like NO - after laying it on NO down in TB how is this team a full 9 point dog to a team that just got smoked by winless STL?

the key to beating NO is middle pass rush - if you only ever handicap one component of a NO opponent make sure to focus on this first - brees is maybe 5' 11" - edge rushers come flying up field and he steps into as confidently as anyone ever to play QB - how many times did the base 4 of STL get an upfield push stunting up the middle? then brees takes one step back and makes chris long long look like LT. if you cant get heat up the middle (remember indy and their 2 awesome edge only rushers) bress just steps up and throws darts all day. a rush up the middle also allows the speedy edge guys to break back off to defend the screen pass which brees/payton are way too in love with and rely on very heavily with sproles - pass rush up the middle means a big play against NO - otherwise they are a play ON -

in the 1st matchup neither team had a sack - week 7 tb only got to cutler twice - you gotta believe the TB effort had a lot to do with being at home and being on the slower grass track. plus the line is just maxed out at 9 - after losing game 1 you might figure 6-7 ....but 9? now 9'?

gregg williams brings more heat - will smith is rampaging right now - a turnover here, a key drop there and the recipe for a double digit home revenge win while that week 6 loss is still fresh seems ripe.

i am with you on the saints - i never bet a game because i think it is gonna be a blowout - usually if i think blowout i have to shake myself and rethink it - this is the NFL - not wise to be 13 point faves b/c you think they will win by 35. more 4 point dogs win by 35 than 13 point faves. (i have nothing to back that up with - it just seems correct doesnt it?) but ultimately it would not surprise me if this much overrated TB crew coming off a bye (which has hurt nearly every team so far) just gets smoked 41-14. but we will take 34-24 just the same.

BOL.