An actual lock....trying to help out the board

chargers4222 · 11-01-11, 04:08 PM

before somebody posts the obligatory "IF ITS SUCH A LOCK WHY ARENT YOU BETTING IT" post, understand i have a 6 month old and somehow managed not to ruin her life and make some money to support her the first 8 weeks of the year. i am done now, but will still follow the games and have picks. enjoy this one

Big Bear · 11-01-11, 05:15 PM

how sure are you?

and who do you think will win the match?

Big Bear · 11-01-11, 05:19 PM

New England is a much better team while playing at Gillette Stadium.

chargers4222 · 11-01-11, 06:03 PM

i am extremely, extremely sure. this game will go over 62, let alone 52. whatever you do, do not bet the game under in any sort of teaser

Big Bear · 11-01-11, 06:05 PM

I won't. I appreciate your tip but I don't ever bet on totals.

chargers4222 · 11-01-11, 06:07 PM

throw something small on it. you'll regret it when you see 21 points in the first 6 minutes and think about that guy on SBR who told you to bet the over

loopydude11 · 11-01-11, 06:55 PM

what the hell? you can post with real sentences and reasoning? the only time i've ever seen you post is to say "LOCKY FOR MY COCKY" and shit like that. i like the insight, i'm going to tease it down with a couple of other totals. thanks

here's my locky for your cocky 13 pt teaser on OVERS

Pats/Giants over 38.5
49ers/Redskins over 24.5
Packers/Chargers over 38
Bears/Eagles over 34

chargers4222 · 11-02-11, 12:15 PM

i would be careful with the 49ers redskins. 17-7 written all over it. patriots and over teaser is solid. the over flat is more than solid. as i said, there is no way this game goes under. on parlay sheets, the back number is 56.

grizzlies1 · 11-02-11, 10:33 PM

57% of bets on the under and it's moved to 51. What are your thoughts on that? I like the play a lot personally and it doesn't hurt being on the same side as the books!

Two excellent passing teams which both contain putrid secondaries + Tom Brady in FU mode and this might be one of my biggest plays of the weekend.

chargers4222 · 11-02-11, 10:36 PM

if this game was going under, the back would be 48 or 55. they are getting the same back number as their past 2 games which both went under. this causes a natural reaction in the average bettor to bet the under. this game will go over.

BigDan · 11-02-11, 10:40 PM

One of my fav plays for sunday...of coarse i played pats/pit over as well

, getting my money back and then some here..pats off a loss against nyg shitbag secondary =30+ points, manning and his core of wrs should manage enough to get it over from there...

chargers4222 · 11-02-11, 10:45 PM

loopydude...why wouldnt you tease the 49er game up to 50.5? there is no way that game goes over 45

loopydude11 · 11-03-11, 12:27 AM

idk man 24.5 just seems so low, but you're probly right i should've went the other way.. wish me luck

gimpy · 11-03-11, 04:01 AM

Interesting.

Mrecko21 · 11-03-11, 04:48 AM

What i dont understand is your saying this is basically a lock because the bookies got 2 unders in a row on New England? This is kind of lame ,also if you think the score is gonna be 45-21 i might as well just bet the Pats no? Also since your up alot and dont want to lose it back why make a small wager on such a gift of a game? Does not make me to confident that your not even willing to bet small on a game you feel so strongly about.

Originally posted by chargers4222

I've been on SBR for years and usually just post useless jinx threads and fade people. I'm up a lot of money and decided to stop for the year since I'm out of work currently. This pick will not lose. Bet whatever you want on it. My gift to SBR for years of help.

Pats/Giants O 52.5

Vegas got their wins on Pats games going under the past 2 games (Jets game tied in same places) with around the same back number. Giants just had a shitshow against Dolphins. Giants secondary is bottom 3 in NFL, Pats pass D isn't too many spots better. Splits will be about 75/25 by gametime which is more than books could have hoped for 3 weeks ago when both these teams were slinging it around. The game will end up around 45-21. Patriots will not stop scoring. Giants are not a good road team...Eagles win was a fluke, as was most of Philly's defeats during their 1-4 start.

Tail or fade, this pick will win. I am not betting on it and, like I said, I appreciate SBR and want to throw this info out there for you to do as you please.

GunShard · 11-03-11, 05:45 AM

Put that Over 52.5 in a 3 team 10 point teaser. So it goes down to Over 42.5.

chargers4222 · 11-03-11, 11:34 AM

my girlfriend had a child 6 months ago. the entire pregnancy i was betting over my head and had to borrow money constantly then finally got hot for the past month and have money to pay for her expenses while i find another job. locals minimum is $100 and i really don't want to get back in the hole if i make other plays and start chasing. this game will go over. patriots is also a great play but the over is rock, rock solid.

chargers4222 · 11-03-11, 11:35 AM

mrecko, you miss the point. had the back number been 56 or 48 in those other 2 games, it wouldnt have mattered, but it was essentially the same number for both the cowboy and steeler game, as well as the jet game which tied in some places. it is just natural for joe public to walk into the sportsbook at the MGM, see that back number, think of the shitfest the giants just had paired with the pats games going under and take the under. it will go over.

BigDan · 11-03-11, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by Mrecko21

What i dont understand is your saying this is basically a lock because the bookies got 2 unders in a row on New England? This is kind of lame ,also if you think the score is gonna be 45-21 i might as well just bet the Pats no? Also since your up alot and dont want to lose it back why make a small wager on such a gift of a game? Does not make me to confident that your not even willing to bet small on a game you feel so strongly about.

so you are basically saying if he put "20x" or "100 dime bomb" or "this my biggest wager ever!" (basically any of the stupid shit ppl post around here about their huge "units") in the post you would be more inclined to follow along?

not commenting really on outcome as it nfl hell if i know, just find it curious that if the man lied and said he was betting a large amount of his small fortune on this gm you would be more willing to follow along...

grizzlies1 · 11-03-11, 12:41 PM

Chargers not sure what you mean by back number and where 56 and 48 come from? Sorry if it seems stupid and it could just be different terminology that I'm not used to this side of the pond. Thanks

upscope · 11-03-11, 01:38 PM

How do we know this isn't another one of your jinx threads??

No coincidences · 11-03-11, 04:00 PM

I would say the NE TT over is a safer bet. Or even the Pats side.

This game will not be close.

chargers4222 · 11-04-11, 10:16 AM

if it was a jinx thread it would have the word locky and/or cocky in it somewhere. this game is under is a LOCKY FOR MY COCKY if you wanna go that route. grizzlies, not sure if you know what "back number" means but it is the total for the game. my argument is that, had the back number for this game been 48 or 56, it would go under. either number would make bettors take the over. 52.5 is a nice middle for patriot games to gain even action

Mrecko21 · 11-04-11, 03:20 PM

Not sure how you came to that conclusion,this guy is saying this is "an actual lock" and he's up alot of money so far,and he's not willing to even place a (small) wager on the "lock" i understand he said he doesn't want to blow the money with the new kid but surely you could put a small bet on the "lock" without risking all he's gained. So i dont know how you come away with that im basically saying if he put 20x or 100 dime bomb on the game i would be more incline to follow?I would be more inclined if he would have just said this is a lock but im playing it safe because of the kid so its only a 1unit play for me guys but i feel very strongly about this pick. Also would have helped if his locked had more to it besided the bookies got 2 unders on the Pats the last 2 weeks so there happy now.

Originally posted by BigDan

so you are basically saying if he put "20x" or "100 dime bomb" or "this my biggest wager ever!" (basically any of the stupid shit ppl post around here about their huge "units") in the post you would be more inclined to follow along?

not commenting really on outcome as it nfl hell if i know, just find it curious that if the man lied and said he was betting a large amount of his small fortune on this gm you would be more willing to follow along...

chargers4222 · 11-05-11, 08:01 PM

hope you guys took my advice here...pats and over teaser is play of the day along with the over flat. now at 50.5...take the over, buy yourself something nice

JMon · 11-05-11, 09:09 PM

This game goes under...I would love to take "personal" side wager with you for any amount. Let me know if your interested.

Speedy88 · 11-05-11, 09:14 PM

I really liked the over until I found out NYG's two best offensive players are out with injuries. I honestly think Eli and the Giants will struggle on offense, and I think you'll see the Pats run a lot, to slow down that pass rush of the Giants.

hitman09 · 11-05-11, 10:11 PM

I think the Pats score around 31 to 38 pts by themselves, so it depends on the G-mens offensive line.

BigDan · 11-06-11, 04:35 AM

cant really be behind this play any longer. with gmen d-line problems pats would be best served to run often in this gm while keeping their d off the field. while yea nyg still has weapons Nicks makes the other wrs better and Bradshaw is a lot more trustworthy than fat boy imho..wouldnt touch under either cause this could still get high scoring but seems like a gmplan by bellicheat where he tries to play keep away from eli like he used to do with Payton.. nyg defense not good enough to get pats off the field so id expect some long methodical drives..

LLXC · 11-06-11, 04:40 AM

I like NYG Team Total a lot.

peeiempee · 11-06-11, 04:44 AM

This game in all honestly makes sense. But nothing is a lock. And vegas already wants more people to take the over

stefan084 · 11-06-11, 04:52 AM

way to get your priorities straight chargers---

chargers4222 · 11-06-11, 12:13 PM

to the person who said he would like to make a personal wager with me, i am not an SBR Pro so it would be pointless. plus, i already put all my points on the over. the splits on this game are not as even as i thought and i thought it would be around 65/35 but 77/23 still means 1 out of 4 people took the under. 45-21 pats

another tremendous play is ARI/STL U 41.5

uhuhahah · 11-06-11, 12:25 PM

Pats and over