SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
3-Unit Play. Take #221 New Orleans (-4) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
Tampa Bay's loss last week at San Francisco was an eye-opener. I was very uncertain about this Bucs team coming into the year. I felt that their performance last year was basically a fluke against a feeble schedule. But their young talent is unmistakable and they are a team playing in a sound system. However, this looks like it is going to be a regression year and that my first instincts were correct. This team tries to coast too much, but they don't have the talent to be one of those teams. LaGarrette Blount looks out of shape and now he won't be on the field this weekend because of his knee. That is going to put even more pressure on Josh Freeman, who is enduring a sophomore slump as a starter this year. This team is 20th in offense and 23rd in defense and they really haven't shown up to play much this year. They were manhandled by Detroit and San Francisco, really the only two ?good? teams that they have played. They were fortunate to beat a struggling Atlanta team in a game that the Bucs were way up for and they were to beat Minnesota after falling behind 17-0 at halftime. Oh, yeah, and then there's the fact that New Orleans is excellent. The road team is 13-3 ATS in this series and the Saints have won the last two meetings in Tampa by the scores of 31-6 and 38-7. Tampa has beaten New Orleans in back-to-back years, but both of those wins came in Week 17 when the Saints were just going through the motions. New Orleans is just one yard away from possibly being 5-0 right now and they are legit. I don't know what the Bucs are, but I haven't been impressed.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #206 Washington (+1.5) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
I don't know how Philadelphia is favored here. That isn't to say that they won't win this game. But there are just too many things pointing to the Redskins here that this play is worth a ticket just for the value. The Eagles are awful. They are just a bad football team. They have four or five streaky, athletic players, but there just isn't a lot of talent on this roster. They can't stop anyone and I like a home dog that brings a much, much better defense to the game. Then there is the fact that the Redskins have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Mike Shanahan has always been awesome coming off a bye, and he is 12-5 ATS in his career when his teams have an extra week of rest. This team is confident - especially after taking over sole possession of first place in the division last week while being idle - and they should be very focused. Philadelphia absolutely humiliated the Redskins last year in primetime, beating them down 59-28. I don't think that Shanahan - who is as spiteful as they come - has forgotten about that one. I absolutely loathe the fact that Rex Grossman is quarterbacking and that Kyle Shanahan is calling this game. Those two guys are pathetic. But that duo is really the only thing keeping me from pulling the trigger on a 6-Unit Play in this game. It is that good of a setup when you consider the defense, rushing, overall matchups, extra prep time, revenge, and a solid public fade here.
2-Unit Play. Take #211 Indianapolis (+7) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
There is absolutely no way that I trust the Bengals to lay these points. I know that Indianapolis has been a bit of a train wreck and that they are 0-5 right now. But they have played better than their record indicates. If it weren't for a superhuman effort from Dwayne Bowe they would have earned their first win last week against Kansas City. They also played Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay tough, and I felt like this team should have beaten Cleveland in Week 2. So they aren't as bad as their record indicates. The Bengals, on the other hand, I do not believe are as good as their record would make you believe. Buffalo and Jacksonville both outplayed them in the last two weeks but Cincy managed to find ways to fluke out wins there. The Bengals have played a cupcake schedule and they lost outright the last time that they lined up as a favorite. In fact, the Bengals are a money-burning 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite and they are 2-12 ATS the last 14 times that they have laid points at home. I think that the Cover-2 will fluster Andy Dalton a bit and I think that Curtis Painter might actually be the better quarterback in this one. Indy might not get its first win of the season but I think that they will hang around in this one before finding a way to lose by a field goal.
2-Unit Play. Take #214 N.Y. Giants (-3) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
I went against Buffalo last week with the wretched Eagles and the Bills did everything they could in the second half to blow that game. Look, I just don't think Buffalo is that good. They have been opportunistic to this point and are +11 in turnovers. But once those dry up this team is going to be exposed. They have been on a good rush but they are bound to blow it. After all, they are the Bills and we have seen it before. The public is all over Buffalo in this game, betting them at a 70 percent clip. These are usually the times that the Giants come to play: when expectations are low. The Giants will be motivated in this game because they don't want to fall further off the pace in the NFC East. And on top of that they don't want to lose ground in Prestige to a fellow in-state team. Buffalo didn't look good in their last road game, at Cincinnati, and I think that this will be a tougher matchup for them here. Eli and the Giants should be able to do just enough to hold off the hungry Bills here and I think that the number tells the tale.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #216 Baltimore (-7.5) over Houston (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
By now everyone should know how overrated I think that Houston is. This team was anointed as the AFC South favorites without ever actually accomplishing anything. And as we have seen time and time again over the last few years their hot starts - usually against inferior competition - is just a mirage. Baltimore is rested and ready to go and this team has looked dominating on the defensive side of the ball. They should be able to swallow up a Houston offense that will again be without Andre Johnson. The Texans are just 4-7 SU the last few years without Johnson and he is critical to what they do. I think that Matt Schaub is going to be a turnover machine in this one and that the Ravens are going to put pressure on right from the jump. The Ravens had extra time to prepare and they are used to attacking the Pittsburgh 3-4 defense so they will know where the holes are in the Texans' version. Houston is without its best defensive player as well, as Mario Williams is done for the year. Houston is coming off a disappointing home loss where they got pushed around by the Raiders and next week they have a key divisional game against Tennessee. This week they are walking into a buzz saw.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #223 Minnesota (+3) over Chicago (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
1-Unit Play. Take #208 Detroit (-4) over San Francisco (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #216 Baltimore (-0.5) over Houston (4 p.m.) AND Take #220 New England (Pk) over Dallas (4 p.m.)
This Week's Totals
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 44.5 Cleveland at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 46.0 San Francisco at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 50.0 Buffalo at N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 50.5 Carolina at Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take #225 Miami (+7) over N.Y. Jets (8:30 p.m., Monday, Oct. 17)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 43.0 Miami at N.Y. Jets (8:30 p.m., Monday, Oct. 17)
I was going to make this a Game of the Year play but the number has just dropped too much over the last 48 hours for the play to hold its value. I do like the Dolphins in this game though and I think that this could be their first win of the season. Just like with the Eagles, people just aren't willing to accept that the Jets aren't that good. They have completely gotten away from their identity as a run-the-ball-and-play-great-defense team. Their defense has actually fallen apart and since they can't run the ball they are putting the offense in the hands of Mark Sanchez, who is pathetic. Miami lost its starting quarterback, Chad Henne, but I don't think that is a bad thing. Henne was missing way too many open throws and I think that Matt Moore will be alright for this team. He is a guy with some experience and prior to last year he was 6-2 in his first eight career starts with the Panthers. The Dolphins have had two weeks to prepare for this game and they are desperate to go out and get that first win of the year. This has been their best role under Tony Sparano - they are 12-4 ATS on the road and they are 10-3 as a road dog - and they have really had the upper hand in this series lately, winning four of five meetings both SU and ATS. The Jets are in a bit of a letdown spot after losing to the Patriots and there are growing issues in this locker room. This team is not as good as they think they are and I expect Miami to be in this one to the end.
That's it for this week. Good luck.
3-Unit Play. Take #221 New Orleans (-4) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
Tampa Bay's loss last week at San Francisco was an eye-opener. I was very uncertain about this Bucs team coming into the year. I felt that their performance last year was basically a fluke against a feeble schedule. But their young talent is unmistakable and they are a team playing in a sound system. However, this looks like it is going to be a regression year and that my first instincts were correct. This team tries to coast too much, but they don't have the talent to be one of those teams. LaGarrette Blount looks out of shape and now he won't be on the field this weekend because of his knee. That is going to put even more pressure on Josh Freeman, who is enduring a sophomore slump as a starter this year. This team is 20th in offense and 23rd in defense and they really haven't shown up to play much this year. They were manhandled by Detroit and San Francisco, really the only two ?good? teams that they have played. They were fortunate to beat a struggling Atlanta team in a game that the Bucs were way up for and they were to beat Minnesota after falling behind 17-0 at halftime. Oh, yeah, and then there's the fact that New Orleans is excellent. The road team is 13-3 ATS in this series and the Saints have won the last two meetings in Tampa by the scores of 31-6 and 38-7. Tampa has beaten New Orleans in back-to-back years, but both of those wins came in Week 17 when the Saints were just going through the motions. New Orleans is just one yard away from possibly being 5-0 right now and they are legit. I don't know what the Bucs are, but I haven't been impressed.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #206 Washington (+1.5) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
I don't know how Philadelphia is favored here. That isn't to say that they won't win this game. But there are just too many things pointing to the Redskins here that this play is worth a ticket just for the value. The Eagles are awful. They are just a bad football team. They have four or five streaky, athletic players, but there just isn't a lot of talent on this roster. They can't stop anyone and I like a home dog that brings a much, much better defense to the game. Then there is the fact that the Redskins have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Mike Shanahan has always been awesome coming off a bye, and he is 12-5 ATS in his career when his teams have an extra week of rest. This team is confident - especially after taking over sole possession of first place in the division last week while being idle - and they should be very focused. Philadelphia absolutely humiliated the Redskins last year in primetime, beating them down 59-28. I don't think that Shanahan - who is as spiteful as they come - has forgotten about that one. I absolutely loathe the fact that Rex Grossman is quarterbacking and that Kyle Shanahan is calling this game. Those two guys are pathetic. But that duo is really the only thing keeping me from pulling the trigger on a 6-Unit Play in this game. It is that good of a setup when you consider the defense, rushing, overall matchups, extra prep time, revenge, and a solid public fade here.
2-Unit Play. Take #211 Indianapolis (+7) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
There is absolutely no way that I trust the Bengals to lay these points. I know that Indianapolis has been a bit of a train wreck and that they are 0-5 right now. But they have played better than their record indicates. If it weren't for a superhuman effort from Dwayne Bowe they would have earned their first win last week against Kansas City. They also played Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay tough, and I felt like this team should have beaten Cleveland in Week 2. So they aren't as bad as their record indicates. The Bengals, on the other hand, I do not believe are as good as their record would make you believe. Buffalo and Jacksonville both outplayed them in the last two weeks but Cincy managed to find ways to fluke out wins there. The Bengals have played a cupcake schedule and they lost outright the last time that they lined up as a favorite. In fact, the Bengals are a money-burning 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite and they are 2-12 ATS the last 14 times that they have laid points at home. I think that the Cover-2 will fluster Andy Dalton a bit and I think that Curtis Painter might actually be the better quarterback in this one. Indy might not get its first win of the season but I think that they will hang around in this one before finding a way to lose by a field goal.
2-Unit Play. Take #214 N.Y. Giants (-3) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
I went against Buffalo last week with the wretched Eagles and the Bills did everything they could in the second half to blow that game. Look, I just don't think Buffalo is that good. They have been opportunistic to this point and are +11 in turnovers. But once those dry up this team is going to be exposed. They have been on a good rush but they are bound to blow it. After all, they are the Bills and we have seen it before. The public is all over Buffalo in this game, betting them at a 70 percent clip. These are usually the times that the Giants come to play: when expectations are low. The Giants will be motivated in this game because they don't want to fall further off the pace in the NFC East. And on top of that they don't want to lose ground in Prestige to a fellow in-state team. Buffalo didn't look good in their last road game, at Cincinnati, and I think that this will be a tougher matchup for them here. Eli and the Giants should be able to do just enough to hold off the hungry Bills here and I think that the number tells the tale.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #216 Baltimore (-7.5) over Houston (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
By now everyone should know how overrated I think that Houston is. This team was anointed as the AFC South favorites without ever actually accomplishing anything. And as we have seen time and time again over the last few years their hot starts - usually against inferior competition - is just a mirage. Baltimore is rested and ready to go and this team has looked dominating on the defensive side of the ball. They should be able to swallow up a Houston offense that will again be without Andre Johnson. The Texans are just 4-7 SU the last few years without Johnson and he is critical to what they do. I think that Matt Schaub is going to be a turnover machine in this one and that the Ravens are going to put pressure on right from the jump. The Ravens had extra time to prepare and they are used to attacking the Pittsburgh 3-4 defense so they will know where the holes are in the Texans' version. Houston is without its best defensive player as well, as Mario Williams is done for the year. Houston is coming off a disappointing home loss where they got pushed around by the Raiders and next week they have a key divisional game against Tennessee. This week they are walking into a buzz saw.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #223 Minnesota (+3) over Chicago (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
1-Unit Play. Take #208 Detroit (-4) over San Francisco (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #216 Baltimore (-0.5) over Houston (4 p.m.) AND Take #220 New England (Pk) over Dallas (4 p.m.)
This Week's Totals
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 44.5 Cleveland at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 46.0 San Francisco at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 50.0 Buffalo at N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 50.5 Carolina at Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take #225 Miami (+7) over N.Y. Jets (8:30 p.m., Monday, Oct. 17)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 43.0 Miami at N.Y. Jets (8:30 p.m., Monday, Oct. 17)
I was going to make this a Game of the Year play but the number has just dropped too much over the last 48 hours for the play to hold its value. I do like the Dolphins in this game though and I think that this could be their first win of the season. Just like with the Eagles, people just aren't willing to accept that the Jets aren't that good. They have completely gotten away from their identity as a run-the-ball-and-play-great-defense team. Their defense has actually fallen apart and since they can't run the ball they are putting the offense in the hands of Mark Sanchez, who is pathetic. Miami lost its starting quarterback, Chad Henne, but I don't think that is a bad thing. Henne was missing way too many open throws and I think that Matt Moore will be alright for this team. He is a guy with some experience and prior to last year he was 6-2 in his first eight career starts with the Panthers. The Dolphins have had two weeks to prepare for this game and they are desperate to go out and get that first win of the year. This has been their best role under Tony Sparano - they are 12-4 ATS on the road and they are 10-3 as a road dog - and they have really had the upper hand in this series lately, winning four of five meetings both SU and ATS. The Jets are in a bit of a letdown spot after losing to the Patriots and there are growing issues in this locker room. This team is not as good as they think they are and I expect Miami to be in this one to the end.
That's it for this week. Good luck.