Hilton SuperContest Week 6 selections

bobbyk1133 · 10-15-11, 05:06 PM

It's interesting that DAL is the biggest play by a large margin. I couldn't agree more with that pick. Also interesting they are taking one last stand with PHI this week suggesting they are trusting the fundamentals rather than the variance.

In contrast the public are riding all the big favorites once again (GB, PIT, NYJ, etc).

This is the time of year where the men begin to separate from the boys.

chopperocker · 10-15-11, 05:17 PM

i got myself a STL +14.5 ticket on wednesday. i thought that was the best play, but there must be some situational trend im unaware of involving DAL +7 ?

bobbyk1133 · 10-15-11, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by chopperocker

i got myself a STL +14.5 ticket on wednesday. i thought that was the best play, but there must be some situational trend im unaware of involving DAL +7 ?

NE is inflated in the spread every week but they still continue to cover. DAL is much more balanced though and getting healthy. No situational trend, just simple analysis.

chopperocker · 10-15-11, 05:49 PM

what i do have in my files is Home Favs of -7 vs Non-Conference opponent going 2-11 O/U last 13. this one has the largest total this season so far 55.5 week 4 NWE/OAK total was 55 final score 31-19 going under by 5pts.

flocko76 · 10-15-11, 07:44 PM

dallas is coming off a bye week.... if that does or doesn't have any effect on record ATS

EricZ116 · 10-15-11, 07:51 PM

I can combat Dallas coming off a bye with this:

Home favorites of 6.5 or more points a week prior to their bye are 28-8 ATS since 2002 (Bill Belichick 3-0).

bobbyk1133 · 10-15-11, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by EricZ116

I can combat Dallas coming off a bye with this: Home favorites of 6.5 or more points a week prior to their bye are 28-8 ATS since 2002 (Bill Belichick 3-0).

This is a good example of how useless most "trends" are. Almost any capper can validate their pick with a stat like this for either side of any given game.

suicidekings · 10-15-11, 10:38 PM

The thing about the Hilton Super Contest is that the numbers of players have swelled to 517 contestants this season and I think you could argue that the group as a whole no longer represents an elite group of cappers. Currently, 301 of them are hitting below breakeven at -110 (win rate of 52.38%) and 210 below 50%.

Consensus plays from these guys are probably not any more valuable than public consensus numbers.

chopperocker · 10-15-11, 10:44 PM

Week 5 most selected play was the wrong side.
======================================== ====================================
Here are the number of times each team was taken by the 517 SuperContestants this week (for those who don't know, each players in the Hilton SuperContest makes 5 plays against the spread -- a contest spread set on Wednesday afternoon -- each week with wins worth 1 point and pushes worth 1/2):

IND -2.5, 69
KC +2.5, 66

MIN -2.5, 145 ***6th-MOST SELECTED BUT HIGHEST % PLAY***
ARI +2.5, 16

PHI -2.5, 174 ***MOST SELECTED TEAM***
BUF +2.5, 71

HOU -5.5, 54
OAK +5.5, 137

NO -6.5, 80
CAR +6.5, 123

JAX -2.5, 46
CIN +2.5, 162 ***2nd-MOST SELECTED TEAM***

PIT -3.5, 72
TEN +3.5, 148 ***5th-MOST SELECTED TEAM***

NYG -9.5, 115
SEA +9.5, 32

SF -3, 67
TB +3, 133

NE -9, 51
NYJ +9, 158 ***3rd-MOST SELECTED TEAM**

SD -4, 103
DEN +4, 86

GB -6, 91
ATL +6, 157 ***4th-MOST SELECTED TEAM***

DET -5.5, 133
CHI +5.5, 91

And here are the leaders' selections:

1 in 1st place with 16.5 points
SANS SOUCI ., 16, 3, 1, MIN, TB, NYJ, GB, DET

1 in 2nd place with 15 points
SAMSWINS.COM2 ., 15, 5, 0, MIN, CIN, TB, NYJ, GB

6 tied for 3rd place with 14.5 points
IBET ., 14, 5, 1, OAK, TEN, NYG, SF, NYJ
ROBERT C BEST ., 14, 5, 1, IND, NO, NYJ, SD, DET
SONS OF DITKA ., 14, 5, 1, NO, NYG, SF, SD, DET
SAMSWINS.COM ., 14, 5, 1, MIN, BUF, CAR, NYJ, CHI
PAGERMAGER ., 14, 5, 1, CAR, CIN, NYJ, SD, ATL
GAMEANALYSTS. COM, 14, 5, 1, MIN, CIN, TEN, NYJ, DET

8 tied for 9th place with 14 points
SHAWNERS ., 13, 5, 2, NO, CIN, SF, SD, ATL
TREASURE HUNTER, 13, 5, 2, MIN, CIN, NYG, NE, ATL
R2K2 ., 13, 5, 2, BUF, CIN, TEN, NYJ, ATL
HELLO - HELLO HELLO -, 13, 5, 2, PHI, OAK, CAR, DEN, CHI
ICED TEA ., 14, 6, 0, MIN, PHI, OAK, CIN, GB
SLICK 50 ., 14, 6, 0, PHI, OAK, CIN, NYJ, SD
BURL IVES ., 14, 6, 0, KC, SEA, TB, DEN, CHI
MISTER P ., 14, 6, 0, CIN, NYG, TB, NYJ, ATL
===================

chopperocker · 10-15-11, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

The thing about the Hilton Super Contest is that the numbers of players have swelled to 517 contestants this season and I think you could argue that the group as a whole no longer represents an elite group of cappers. Currently, 301 of them are hitting below breakeven at -110 (win rate of 52.38%) and 210 below 50%.

Consensus plays from these guys are probably not any more valuable than public consensus numbers.

GREAT POINT!!!!

checkin' the leaders is more valuable.

chopperocker · 10-15-11, 11:04 PM

team off a bye as a Road Dog of +6.5 to +9.5 are 4-12 ATS

aman86 · 10-15-11, 11:30 PM

damn, i feel great about my pats bet now, thanks for the info

seems like everyone buying into the post bye week, not the pre bye week

bobbyk1133 · 10-15-11, 11:38 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

The thing about the Hilton Super Contest is that the numbers of players have swelled to 517 contestants this season and I think you could argue that the group as a whole no longer represents an elite group of cappers. Currently, 301 of them are hitting below breakeven at -110 (win rate of 52.38%) and 210 below 50%. Consensus plays from these guys are probably not any more valuable than public consensus numbers.

Those win rates are no different than a collection of cappers from a pay service site either. Why do people assume that just because someone is considered "sharp" then it automatically follows that they must hit 55%+?

If you've followed the Hilton contest in years prior...there are a lot of overlapping picks with the public in September and then things get dramatically different the rest of the way. The public consensus picks rarely go away from the heavy favorites every week regardless of how much they inflate the lines.

chopperocker · 10-16-11, 12:23 AM

new betting strategy - fade the hilton supercontest most selected play & modified - fade the hilton supercontest most selected play in a chase a to z to aa to zz.......