New Orleans -4 @ Tampa Bay
Tampa missing starting tailback LeGarrette Blount will replace him with Earnest Graham. Behind him they have no one with game experience. Backup tight end Luke Stocker who had been assuming most of the fullback duties did not play last week probably will not go again this week. I think the only way Bucs keep this one within a TD is if they can establish the run. Given this information I have to doubt their ability to do this. If the onus to move the ball falls to Josh Freeman I gotta play against him. He has not looked anything like he did last year. Mike Williams has not played well. Seems like Kellen Winslow is the only target Freeman is looking for lately, often forcing throws into double coverage.
Bucs defence is really beat up as well. Gerald McCoy the starting DT is out with an ankle. He is their run stopper. Middle linebacker Mason Foster is also very doubtful. He has been their best defensive player this year. Quincy Black will likely replace him if he can go himself. He did not play last week with an ankle. CB Aqib Talib is slowed by a knee but will play.
Tough spot for Tampa back from the ass kicking on the west coast and off to England next week. Some may point out that this is the Saints third road game in a row but I can’t buy that for a dollar. J’ville, Carolina and Tampa are not gonna ring up enough air miles to make that a factor.
Looks like the Saints will be closer to full strength with starting center Olin Kreutz coming back. SLB Martez Wilson and MLB Jon Vilma look good to go.
Dallas + 7@ New England
It all comes down to defence for me in this one. Dallas can match New England on offense, strength of schedule is about even and have a scheduling advantage coming off a bye week.
Defensive co-ordinator Rob Ryan was able to devise a game plan to stop New England while with Cleveland albeit in a home game. I think the personnel he has to work with in Dallas is far better than what he had with the Browns and again he has had an extra week to prepare. Demarcus Ware could line up anywhere on Sunday.
Always have to respect the Brady magic and I do believe he will rack some yardage on Sunday. Where I think the Pats will really struggle is on D. They are really going to miss Jerod Mayo this week. Romo has had an extra week to heal the rib injury and both Dez Bryant and Miles Austin are back to full speed in practice.
Defensively as mentioned the Pats will be missing Jerod Mayo, by far their best defensive player. That is really going to limit their base 3-4 package. Fat Albert and his backup Kyle Love were limited in practice but are expected to play. Starting corner Ras Dowling is a game time decision.
The most telling observsation I can make on this game is that some of the biggest shops have come down off 7 for this game. Unheard of for a Pats line. 6.5 is widely available if you favour the Pats. Not for me.
Cleveland @ Oakland -6.5
What sticks out on first observation for me is the difference in schedule strength that these two teams have played. Cleveland comes in having faced the third easiest schedule (30th) and the Raiders have faced the second toughest. It should be noted that Cleveland is off a bye week and that this will be the Raiders first home game since Al passed.
Cleveland has lost a couple of real important defenders for this one. Joe Haden their best cover CB has not practiced all week. He has not yet been ruled out but local media reports say that is likely. With the speed of the wideouts for the Raiders that is a significant injury. No way can the Browns stack the box against McFadden without Joe Haden in the lineup. They will definitely need safety help deep. Defensive end/linebacker Marcus Benard (pass rusher) had a motorcycle accident and is out for a while.
Defensively I expect the Raiders to stack the box against Hillis and Hardesty. That plays to their defensive strength which is inside with Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly. They are going to make Colt McCoy beat them. Now the Raider secondary is a bit beat up and has looked suspect this year. But that has been against the likes of Brad, Fitzpatrick, Sanchez and Schaub. Colt McCoy is not in that calibre as of yet.
On offensive I am hoping to see Marcel Reese back in his role as starting fullback. He has not practiced this week and is a game time decision. He is a very important piece of the offensive game plan for the Raiders and they did miss him last week. McFadden did not have an explosive game in Houston but that was against a 3/4 package defence. The Browns employ a 4/3 base package.
The line has moved to -7 at some shops ...another telling move. I will take the -6.5 now as I expect not to see that number on game day at my outs.
I will have a few more later today or tomorrow after today's practice info is available.
Good luck lads!!
Tampa missing starting tailback LeGarrette Blount will replace him with Earnest Graham. Behind him they have no one with game experience. Backup tight end Luke Stocker who had been assuming most of the fullback duties did not play last week probably will not go again this week. I think the only way Bucs keep this one within a TD is if they can establish the run. Given this information I have to doubt their ability to do this. If the onus to move the ball falls to Josh Freeman I gotta play against him. He has not looked anything like he did last year. Mike Williams has not played well. Seems like Kellen Winslow is the only target Freeman is looking for lately, often forcing throws into double coverage.
Bucs defence is really beat up as well. Gerald McCoy the starting DT is out with an ankle. He is their run stopper. Middle linebacker Mason Foster is also very doubtful. He has been their best defensive player this year. Quincy Black will likely replace him if he can go himself. He did not play last week with an ankle. CB Aqib Talib is slowed by a knee but will play.
Tough spot for Tampa back from the ass kicking on the west coast and off to England next week. Some may point out that this is the Saints third road game in a row but I can’t buy that for a dollar. J’ville, Carolina and Tampa are not gonna ring up enough air miles to make that a factor.
Looks like the Saints will be closer to full strength with starting center Olin Kreutz coming back. SLB Martez Wilson and MLB Jon Vilma look good to go.
Dallas + 7@ New England
It all comes down to defence for me in this one. Dallas can match New England on offense, strength of schedule is about even and have a scheduling advantage coming off a bye week.
Defensive co-ordinator Rob Ryan was able to devise a game plan to stop New England while with Cleveland albeit in a home game. I think the personnel he has to work with in Dallas is far better than what he had with the Browns and again he has had an extra week to prepare. Demarcus Ware could line up anywhere on Sunday.
Always have to respect the Brady magic and I do believe he will rack some yardage on Sunday. Where I think the Pats will really struggle is on D. They are really going to miss Jerod Mayo this week. Romo has had an extra week to heal the rib injury and both Dez Bryant and Miles Austin are back to full speed in practice.
Defensively as mentioned the Pats will be missing Jerod Mayo, by far their best defensive player. That is really going to limit their base 3-4 package. Fat Albert and his backup Kyle Love were limited in practice but are expected to play. Starting corner Ras Dowling is a game time decision.
The most telling observsation I can make on this game is that some of the biggest shops have come down off 7 for this game. Unheard of for a Pats line. 6.5 is widely available if you favour the Pats. Not for me.
Cleveland @ Oakland -6.5
What sticks out on first observation for me is the difference in schedule strength that these two teams have played. Cleveland comes in having faced the third easiest schedule (30th) and the Raiders have faced the second toughest. It should be noted that Cleveland is off a bye week and that this will be the Raiders first home game since Al passed.
Cleveland has lost a couple of real important defenders for this one. Joe Haden their best cover CB has not practiced all week. He has not yet been ruled out but local media reports say that is likely. With the speed of the wideouts for the Raiders that is a significant injury. No way can the Browns stack the box against McFadden without Joe Haden in the lineup. They will definitely need safety help deep. Defensive end/linebacker Marcus Benard (pass rusher) had a motorcycle accident and is out for a while.
Defensively I expect the Raiders to stack the box against Hillis and Hardesty. That plays to their defensive strength which is inside with Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly. They are going to make Colt McCoy beat them. Now the Raider secondary is a bit beat up and has looked suspect this year. But that has been against the likes of Brad, Fitzpatrick, Sanchez and Schaub. Colt McCoy is not in that calibre as of yet.
On offensive I am hoping to see Marcel Reese back in his role as starting fullback. He has not practiced this week and is a game time decision. He is a very important piece of the offensive game plan for the Raiders and they did miss him last week. McFadden did not have an explosive game in Houston but that was against a 3/4 package defence. The Browns employ a 4/3 base package.
The line has moved to -7 at some shops ...another telling move. I will take the -6.5 now as I expect not to see that number on game day at my outs.
I will have a few more later today or tomorrow after today's practice info is available.
Good luck lads!!