just fell into your thread, good stuff with the live betting!
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Thanks vulcan....what a night....wow is all I can say...in a game that was sure to go over going into the 4th....Detroit shot themselves in the foot along with all of us that had the over and the +9.5....I mean detroit is just awful....100+ yards in penalties....in a game where they actually had a chance they lost by 14 and in a night where I had a chance to actually sweep I end up losing so pissed....but what can u do we will get it next timeComment -
NO/Det O 53.5 Loss -200
Live NO/Det O 51 Loss -150
Det +9.5 Loss -75
NO TT O 31.5 Loss -200
Det TT O 23 Loss -300
Stafford pass comps O 26.5 Win +68.25
Live NO/Det O 46 +182
2-5 on the night....and truly on a night where I should have been at least 6-1 SO PISSED
well on a positive note I am still above 500 but am still so pissed about last night how can you not get a TD with 8 minutes left in a game....COME ON!!!!
41-39-3
+1338.25Comment -
yea logan and young had to keep their street cred lol
you on tonight's game?Comment -
I think I may have a small play....nothing major...will post after I research it a bit moreComment -
ok so for tonight...this is a tough one one bad offensive team with a very good D and one team with a slumping qb (who is obviously not getting enough sleep with his newborn baby...and 5 or 6 other kids). Rivers is not a bad qb but has been bad lately....I however have to roll with the chargers tonight....I mean yes Jax has a good D but Gabbert is just so bad...they may be able to stop SD but SD will still score at some point and I have to go with the team with the better O not the team with the better D here....yes D can win games but you have to have a tiny bit of offense to back you up...rivers may throw a pick and the D may get a score that way but I have to roll with SD tonight..
SD -3 for 125
also teasing SD +4 and U 46.5 for 75
I may also have a player prop later
I do like the Under in this game....I mean Jax has 0 offense and a good D so those 2 combined equal under for me...the line just moved to 39.5 I have not pulled the trigger on this one yet...stay tuned.Comment -
How how how can this game go O I mean really how can it....I cant see it...but how did det/no not go O last night...not sure...but really I dont care about previous stats previous games played between these 2 teams, stats on lose 3 games in a row and take the next game to go over blah blah blah blah that does not even make sense to me what makes sense is:
Jax horrid Offense
Jax good D
SD slumping O
SD just ok D
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Under
Under 40.5 buying full point for 100Comment -
I said I would not bet this game live....but how can I not take the under live here
small
JAX SD Under 45 for 75Comment -
Well what a bad night on monday....but we can say that jax has a terrible offense...the game should have been 38-0 but instead somehow jax offense looked ok 1st half and they scored 14 points but then they woke up and realized that was not really them and completely fell apart in the 2h...what a terrible team really.....
sd -3 win +113.75
tease sd+4 under 46.5 loss -75
jax/sd u loss -100
jax sd live u 45 loss -75
42-42-3
+1202Comment -
I've got an early play for this sunday....and I am loving this play right now so I thought I would get it in early....I have to go with my boy vick this weekend...I see him coming back and getting things done for his team...getting some td's and running that offense. Miami has been on a roll lately and the past few weeks their offense has looked quite good as well....so my play will be on the Over here....and I am really like this Over at 45....I mean philly can put up 25 points without even trying...vick will want to get out there and get things going quickly and I see miami being able to hang in there...will philly win this one well I hope so cause philly is my team but I cannot take a side in this one...Miami has the momentum on their side here and philly seems to just be well they are just not as they should be this year unfortunately and I do not know if they will get that spark back this year.
So for sunday its a big play because I really like it..
Mia/Philly O 45 for 400Comment -
footballgirl,
i wanted to suggest something to you...... STOP playing over/unders. the NFL is designed to kill over/under betters. its almost a seemingly educated, yet in reality ignorant, coin flip.
you have a decent understanding of capping and your analysis are more often than not right when it comes to which team is likely to win. if you want to go with over/under mentality, then start trying to predict the exact score and cap the game using that
for example, you concluded that san diego would roll in the game agaisnt the jags. you specifically used the phrase im 'rollin with' a couple times and you even stated that you are going with the team with the better offense as opposed to defense in all your analysis, indicating you were very confident that san deigo would able to handle jacksonville. yet you placed all your wagers on stupid over/unders.
and you teased the safe way instead of saying, you know what, im confident in my pick, and I will go with san deigo -10 at +280 and drop 1 unit on that. jags cannot score and rivers is "slumping" as you stated. wouldnt a slumping qb pick it up against a bad team?
honestly all the answers are in your own analysis. start betting bold instead of betting scared. predict the score in your head and wager on the spread based on that. you are constatnly betting scared and going with over/unders is proof of that.
just a thought. good luck. start betting spreads and be bold. if an underdog will win, take the moneyline, dont take the spread. and if a favorite will cover, let them cover. stop going over/under. if you like the over, take an alternate line showing the favorite will blow the other team out.Comment -
thanks for the advice....I do like totals actually...I find this year in particular teams are so unpredictable....so I often am not totally confident that a team will come out and cover a spread. Yes I thgouth SD would roll, but who would have thought that Jax would roll in the 1st half with theri offense and that their D which has been looking good over the past 4-5 games would be so bad? I mean Jax did not even come close to scoring a td in the 2h. Gabbert could not even throw the ball so how did he manage to string together so many throws in the first half, I have no idea. That game really should have been a shut out...and if Jax D had played they way they should have then SD woul dhave never scored that many points. Look at teams like dallas, Detroit, Giants, Jets, Buffalo the list goes on and on one week they are good the next week they are totally sukin. To me it seems that the total are a safer bet and that is why I am betting them right now. The NO/det game should have gone well over I mean at one point that game was 60+ live....but detroit had a disaster and fell apart and NO did not really care and took the foot of the pedal....
But that you 4th and stupid for your comments I do appreciate them and am always looking to improve......Comment -
So here we go....and I am going to take a piece of what 4th and stupid said and try to apply it to tonights game as I would lean under but I have to be honest I hate playing the under as the under could always end so easily, whereas an over always has time to hit. The browns have been scoring on average 12 points per game. Last week they lost by 14 to the ravens who have a great D but I mediocre Offense. I hate flacco and I dont care what anyone says I think that he is a bad qb and the ravens would do far better with someone else. Pitt has struggled to get points in certain games, but those games have been against teams with good D's. Balt (they still got 20, Jax, whose D was rolling, KC whose D was on fire the night they played). I cannot see the browns D holding big ben back...I think that Pitt will put up the points and the browns will merely put up their 12 (if that). So for tonight I am taking a side and will roll with Pitt and Big Ben (although I hate big ben) as I see this game being a blow out....I am going to go with the more conservative move and buy a half point here and take pitt -13.5
Pitt -13.5 for $150
let get this tonight.....Comment -
I know I know I am just being conservative just in case it goes to 14......we will seeComment -
Wow what a horrible offensive game from cle (which I thought as mentioned above leaning on the U) but truly pitt should have had that game by 14 easily even with ben's injury. 1st and goal from the 2 yard line and not only could they not get it in for a td but on 4th and 1 they decide to go for it and miss....that was my 14....oh well....I find that all night games have been shockingly bad this year....just following the trend of a very very boring game but what a show from big ben who came out to play after his injury now that was awesome....
42-43-3
+1052
still up on the year so far....lets look ahead to sunday and get the philly O
Adding SD/Buff O 47.5 for 250
Buffalo has screwed me many times in a row....but I am looking for this to be a highly offensive game for 2 teams that have not great D's. I cannot take a side here as both these teams are up and down but mostly down....they are both risky teams to be taking to win so I have no clue who will win this nor do I really care I just want it to be a shoot out between fitzpatrick and rivers.....Comment -
Pinny not offering stafford pass completions yet....funny...that has been my bread and butter of the last few weeks....maybe it will be up tomorrow.....Comment -
For todays card I am going with all OU for right now. I just cannot bring myself to take sides this week as teams are just so damn inconsistent. I do have some leans but am not pulling the trigger yet...
Leans for today
my leans are on Mia +3...Mia has the momentum here and are on a roll and although i hate to say it cause Philly is my team...they have had the wind taken out of their sails...I see mia winning this one but cannot bring myself to pull the trigger because honestly you never know what philly team will show up today.
I am also leaning NO and would buy a half point to 3...I know a lot of ppl are on titans but really I personally do not see that...I think that NO are in playoff mode. Yes they are on fire at home and their road game has been a bit different but I see NO as a different team now. I think that they are the team to beat right now and are looking good. Perhaps I have just been too caught up in their past few home games but they look awesome and I see them taking tenn today....I guess I may have to play that Over too actually but will add it later in the day perhaps...I know they are averaging mid to low 20's on the road and tenn is averaging 20ish ppg...but I can see this one being a shoot out too...although now writing out the stats perhaps the O here is not such a good idea. But I will see.
Also really liking OAK +11.5 against GB today. I think that is a lot for GB to cover....after an almost loss to the giants last week, I really cant see GB covering this big spread against OAK. I really like the way OAK has been playing...their D has stepped up so I see OAK covering here
SF-I see sf covering here against zona. although I would buy them down to 3 but the odds for that are not great....I am really like SF and zona has been sucking...
SD-I love SD here. It seems that rivers and the chargers month to roll is in December. They are looking somewhat better and I see them beating the bills but can they cover the 7 that I am not sure....with the Bills you never know who will show up or how they will show up....although since their last win....which I can barely remember they have been at a new low and have not been able to do or win anything...I just hope that they can do enough today to put 21-24 points on the board today for my O but I cannot bet on or against the bills as they are one of the most inconsistent offensive teams right now...
And the denver train again I do not see denver winning this one...but of course it is tebow and you just know that den is going to beat the bears today with no QB...I will be riding the denver train later today and will be pulling that trigger....
as for the above plays as I said those are my leans only and they are not official plays...just something to think about......the only one I think that I will add is Denver
maybe I will tease all of my leans into a play later on....
I have been looking at car/atl all week and am going to go with the Over in todays game. I love cam newton and I want to see him putting up the points today. I love the way that cam is playing and I think that he will inspire matty the ice bucket to get his offense going. I see this one as a shoot out and hope to see that total hit.
Car/atl O 47 for $125
so for today I have 3 plays on Overs....and more to be posted laterComment -
adding another play
Philly tt O 21 for $300
Love this play too along with the total O 45 now I know that the line is not moving in my favour here...when I tool the philly total earlier this week, it quickly moved to 45.5...today it has move back down to 45....with the odds favouring the under at this point in time. Philly totals with vick this year have been set very high...this 21 is low for them and I see this as a reflection of their play of late with young as the starting qb.But I do really like philly tt O 21...I see vick coming out today and getting it done. Philly will e putting up the points today and I think I like this play more than the philly/Mia Over but am cautious with my money as I already have 400 on philly O.
Lets get this Vick.Comment -
wow not very happy right now with the line movement in Philly/mia....line just move to 44.....and look at the NO/Tenn line just dropped from 50 to 47.5 wow that is some crazy movement in a span of 20 minutes for NO....lets home the philly line moves back before game time but I am not worried Vick is coming to play against a streaking mia team..gotta add one more small one...very small.... I was hesitant about the NO Over line before at 50 but it has mve 2.5 points....I am jumping on the over now small very small
NO/Tenn O 47 (buying half pt) for $50Comment -
come on vick lets get this one I can see him scoring 40 on his own...light rain in Miami I assume that is why line is lower....but I cant help myself adding more on philly O
Philly over 44 $150Comment -
yes love it...line just jumped to 44.5 now to close off so at least it moved back up just now....like it lets get this vick come on and put up some points!
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GO gettem girl!!!!!!Good luck today
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love it when a play hits in the 2q-love it vick you can get 40 yourself lets get this over!!!
Thanks shocktopme
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philly/mia making me sweat this one out...we needed 2 tds in 2H...and its looking very very very hard to get that one fg and almost the end of 3q...still need 2 TD's come on vick get thisComment -
first off what a game in Tenn...that was awesome and they really could have won it there at the end. But again what can I say about the philly MIA O...I did not watch the game as I did not get it but come on 30+ points in the first half and then 5 in the 2 I mean really that is crazy.....and again luck is just not going my way....I mean so many chances close in and nothing absolutely nothing at all....oh well
2-3 for the early games...but really could have been a huge morningComment -
live sf -3 for $75Comment -
what a game in denver....was that exciting or what....I had done den ML live for quite a bit when odds where 3 to 1 and it hit....but was not a posted play so I am obviously not counting it....but what a game and I am just so shocked with 2:08 left in the game they get 10 pts....wowowowow....I am so happy right now I am not even that upset that my SD O 47.5 missed by a half point that I think was totally doable!!!!!!! So I am down on paper...but what can you do...the 2 overs that lost were completely doable and I really should have had a huge day today but instead am down....
I think I am 2-5 today...really should have been 5-2......sux but Denver is awesome I have actually never seen anything like this before!!! Wow
What will I do for tonight....check back later for my postComment -
well line not moving in the direction I had hoped but going with the over tonight...if I liked it at 50 then I like it at 48....lets go over
Dall/Giants Over 48 buying half a point for $250
lets see if I can half my losses and come away from today losing only 250...and I'll leave some room for live betting too...
lets get thisComment -
ok now I will explain my pick for tonight...I have been watching this line and when I first saw this match up I thought...Over for sure then looked at the number and saw 50....so I rethought it...how can these 2 teams put up 50 points when they are averaging just over 23 points per game (23.9 and 23.6). I thought the 50 was high...but lets take into account that they are playing in a dome which is much better for overs...so when the line dropped to 48.5 tonight I thought hell ya I am on that and I am buying the hook. I think that the giants come out big tonight their coach is pissed off after so many losses....and he will kick their asses if they do not come out tonight....hmm on that thought may have to go with giants live if I get a number I like....dallas lets get an early td so that I can jump on an inflated giants line
lets get this
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well I am not getting excited about anything right now...the over is looking good but you know how things have been going in the nfl...just when all you need is a few more tds nothing happens
taking small live play on Giants
Giants ML for $25....small but paying almost 3 to 1 take a chance why notComment -
that was a live play by the way on the giants mlComment -
wow what a play there...but the more this game goes on the more it makes me mad about my philly over that lost today. Look at this game14-15..thats 29 points almost the end of the half....they need 49 points for the win thats 20 points. Now look the philly game...just over 30 points in the 1st half...I was laughing...they needed 2 TD's in the entire 2h and they get a whopping 5 points...5 points....r u kidding me....I mean that should have hit for sure and my day would be completely different today...I had over 500 on that game...and I was already getting excited about the win at the half...look at last week...the NO DET game same thing I think they needed 2 TDs to or maybe 3 cant recall but it looked like it was a no brainer and guess what nope did not hit....so even though this game is at 29 at the moment (with 1 min left) I am not at all confident that it will hit...because look at what has happened to easy overs....I just cannot believe that the philly over did not hit....so pissed so pissed and was so pissed last week too with the DET/NO Over....now this total better hit....the live Over is at 57....I will be pissed if this falls apart in the 2h....I will be pissed....but lets get this...I see these 2 qb's fighting it out to the very end...
just some food for thoughtComment -
well I can finally exhale...with that win. I do love it when I hit something early on...so I got the O for tonight....
3-5 for today with one left to go...
lets see if the giants can pull out a win here...fingers crossed they are looking good but so is dallas
will write up win/loss totals for today at some point tomorrow. I am too tired now with all the ups and downs from today.Comment