fg's season long thread

[footballgirl]

wow what a game last night finally a great night game!! So in a weekend that really should have gone much better (philly and sd O's should have hit and I should have been6-3 at least-sf loss???? I mean come on)...I end up 4-5 and not down that much...have not figured it all out yet but will be down less than 250 I think will have full stats up tonight.
As for tonight I do love seattle at home-love that crowd but do not like the -10 too high a number...you never know with the rams what team will come out...most of the time they are bad but who knows....would have been a good tease with giants last night..,..so that may be a live betting game for me if I can get a better line

[Vulcan300]

seattle at home is tough and it's MNF, i still like it. tav jackson is back to full strength with his arm, pec injury isn't the issue anymore and it's lynch time tonight.

GL with what you decide with, i don't think tonight you'll get a better line at live...ram's need to score for that to happen. luckily i did tease them last night with giants and parlayed the giants ML with the spread so i'm good with the bets.

[Vulcan300]

just checked spread, went down a point guess bradford is playing? still confident in the play though..

[footballgirl]

nice play on the giants ml last night that was an awesome game....still have to have a look and do a bit more research on this line....I think bradford is still somewhat hurt and cannot see him doing that well tonight....I do like seattle but think anything more than a td is a lot....I may tease them down....with OU play...stay tuned

[footballgirl]

From yesterday

MIA/Philly Over 45 Loss -400
Mia Philly Over 44 Loss -150
SD/Buff O 47.5 Loss -250
Car/Atl O 47 win +112.50
Phi tt O 21 Win +270
NO/Tenn O 47 loss -50
SF Live -3 Loss -75
Dall/nyg O 48 win +219.25
NYG live ML win +52.50

Loss of 271.25

Total 46-48-3
+780.75

[footballgirl]

seattle is actually a team that I think is flying a little bit under the radar. They have actually hung in and beaten somevery good teams this year-balt, giants, philly (yes I know philly is not great this year but still they blew philly out and many did not think it woul dbe a blow out). Yes they have had some shocking games...the low scoring cleveland game, shut out by pitt, taken out by san fran, but they are actually not as bad as people may think. Now Stl that is a bad team they had one good game against NE and that is it they can hardly break 10 pts per game. STL is averaging 11 ppg and SEA is averaging 18 ppg...I guess the books are factoring the home field advantage and there you have your 10 pts or so...I mean I think the 10 was a little bit high and now you have everyone pounding the stl line like there is no tomorrow and the line has now dropped to 9....I have to say I would lean on seattle.....but I still am finding 9 a bit high....but soo tempting....

7 pt tease SEA -2 and U 45 for $75
Seattle -8 (still good odds at that -108) for $50

[footballgirl]

was waiting for this live play on U

live U 41 for 50

[footballgirl]

what type of play calling is that for stl...4th and 1 and they go for a long throw are you kidding me??? Why not just give it to jackson...whta horrible play calling but good for U and good for SEA

[footballgirl]

did I say that seattle was flying under the radar???? Wow they are sucking it up tonight...yes they are winning by 10 but should be up at least another 10-14 points....fumble at 30, miss td off interception in the 3rd and fg in 2nd they could not do anything with their offense..

[footballgirl]

unreal that the U just got killed...wow how crazy is that....unreal....I mean stl should have had a fg there and the taunting call are you kidding me.......a night that should have been a sweep...wow i just don't even know what to say there are so many unlucky things that continue to happen in all of these games....a game where nobody is scoring suddenly 2 teams score 14 points in about 2 mins...crazy...

[footballgirl]

R u kidding stl is calling a time out...with one minute left down 17 are they trying to kill my teaser to get a TD

[footballgirl]

phew....I mean really that should have been a sweep for me...but still up a 2-1 night...what can you do....but really this game should have actually gone way over so many misses tonight I was lucky the teaser hit so I should just be happy with that...

vulcan congrats on your parlay...good call on sea -10

[Vulcan300]

i forgot to add a teaser seahawks/falcons all good though.
i did get seahawks in with packers(-3.5)/falcons(-1) for 10pter. so i have one of my bets in for this week.

love the falcons in the dome for thursday, but def not at the current line. most likely teased again.

might make a play soon on lions, suh is back and stafford seems to be throwing the ball well; so his finger shouldn't be an issue. that also leads to megatron time

http://bayarea.sbnation.com/oakland-raiders/2011/12/12/2631210/jacoby-ford-injury-denarius-moore-injury-oakland-raiders-update

returning from injuries is always a problem, wanted to see as the week goes on if there were any more updates, but i definitely want to make a play before the line moves some more towards lions. if one of those two are ruled out...i'm sure it'll jump quick.

[footballgirl]

updated season total
48-49-3
+890.15

[footballgirl]

ok lets try this again....going with the philly over again this week and want to lock it in early again at 44. But as with last week I thought the number would rise and it did by a half point but then dropped just before game time. Miami who had the momentum with them and who had been playing quite well the past few weeks had a disaster last week and they were to blame for the total not covering....so this weekend when the jets play philly I expect the jets to put up at least 14-21 points and philly will take care of the rest. Philly will be putting up 30+ so I just need 14+ from the jets which can happen easily. So for my first play for the weekend...
Philly O 44 for 200

I hope this does not come back to bite me again!!!!

Vulcan like your Detroit pick....Oak looked terrible last week against GB...I thought they would at least hang in there instead they were blown out, but that does not mean that they will not show up against det. I just have a hard time taking detroit since their thanksgiving disaster and then the week after 100+ yard in penalties, I cannot trust teams like that and I am not sure what to do about that play. I love the way stafford has been playing, but he has to be pissed with his team.

As for tonight I agree I love atl tonight too....how did Jax score 41 points against TB I mean can Gabbert even throw the ball...how did that happen? I have no idea...but 11 is a big spread and last night the line moved to 11.5 and it is still juiced up...I may pull the trigger on 11.5 no way gabbert is getting more than 14 points in this game....will post later

[Vulcan300]

yea i actually made the move on -11 yesterday for 3 units, 1 unit on 1st half. it's jumping to like 12 and 12.5, maybe even 13 by game.

This most likely will be a blow out, some people are thinking they let up 2nd half for bd cover w/e i just don't think jags can hang. With injuries mounting for them esp CBs and their WRs, and jones-drew having to use a Hyperbaric chamber to heal up faster, that's crazy.

i laid -10 on seahawks, don't see why i wont lay -11 on falcons in a similar scenario.

[Vulcan300]

-14

[footballgirl]

wow nice to get on the line at 11 no play for me as line at 13.5 may wait for a live opp but according to what ppl think this game is going to be a blow out and there may not be an opportunity for a live bet...so for now no play...

[footballgirl]

wow it seems like everyone is on atl tonight. The question is how did jax score 41 points on sunday I mean really they are one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Gabbert can hardly throw a ball in the air most of his passes are into the ground. So how did they have such a high offensive game? I have no clue I did not watch that game but it is really confusing me for this pick. I feel that the other obvious pick here would be the U...what is it now 41.5....but look at stl seattle that game was an under for sure...that line was set at 38.5 and i got it live at 41...and guess what it ends up going over...and stl offense was horrid that day too...so even though the under seems to be the play who really knows. For now I still have no play at all...may be looking a bit closer at atl tt-the total has moved half a pt to 27.5 may do that but still no play yet.
It seems I only have hockey plays for tonight...got a new thread in hockey section just started this past week.

[Vulcan300]

line was at 42 for total then hopped to 42.5, public perception on that jax is gonna score thus over. even if it's a blowout, over only hits if jax can score. a blowout could still be like 27-3 or 30-7 which could be under. hence the line dropping to 41.5. So unless jax can score which i'm not sure they can... should be under, not touching it though..

anyway that jax/tb game you could say tb just called it a wrap, team is in shambles and there was tons of turn over pts scored that game.
you can always check recaps at nfl.com

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2011121108/2011/REG14/buccaneers@jaguars

could always do a 6pt teaser with cowboys for saturday.

[footballgirl]

ok biting the bullet but small.....

atl -13.5 for 50
atl tt O 27.5 for 50

going small tonight as these are not my most confident bets...atl has been putting up the points and is very capable of putting up points. the problem will be is if Jax has no offense them matty ice may just take it easy. If they are up a lot they are not going to be pushing the offense...so lets hope that jax can score somewhat I want to see MJD running it tonight and getting some points so that it pushes atl to score....lets get this

[footballgirl]

vulcan I want to see a blow out tonight...I hope atl and matty ice show up to play hard!!!! Lets see how gabbert plays hopefully he will have a game like the last night game...14 pts in the 1st half and then 0 the rest of the game so atl can coast to a 35-14 win!!!

[Vulcan300]

10.5 pts left for your team total

[footballgirl]

the game is looking good so far...just don't want atl to take their foot off the gas...but Jax looking bad as usual...gabbert has returned to his true form

[footballgirl]

thats what I like to see...24-0 in the 1st half...need one more TD from matty ice tonight....

[Vulcan300]

cash that 1st half

[footballgirl]

27-0 nice like it...one more point

[footballgirl]

vulcan what do u think about 2h over 17.5 do u like it??

[footballgirl]

ya gonna go for it...small....
atl 2h O 17.5 for 50

[footballgirl]

love it when plays hit so early cash that 2H Over in the 3q.....42-7..... now unless something really really weird happens I think I may be able to take out the broom....I was taking it out the other night but quickly had the door slammed on me when stl and seattle got 14 points in the final 2 minutes....good thing for so many turn overs this game.

[Vulcan300]

lol o shizz i was busy doing some work and didn't watch after the half. is it too soon for me to say, CASH IT!

[footballgirl]

I hope not...great play on atl...good call!!.....

Lets have a good weekend....do you do any college betting...I have my eye on some Overs in the bowl games...took TCU O last week....i think line has moved up half point...also liking boise O, baylor O and a few others....I actually did quite well this year with college Overs!!!

I am still liking philly over this weekend again hope I do not get burned again.....

[Vulcan300]

i'll tail you on college if you feel good about it, i just do nfl and mma.

about the jets/phi total, i think we'll see at least 2 picks or more coming from both sides combined, sancheese hasn't throw one yet in the last 2 games and with the PHI secondary stepping it up bit, i wouldn't be surprised. on opposite side you have jets corners and uh vick. I think any sack/int prop would be money, but i usually don't bet these lol.

so you could have the scenario of picks, and no scoring cause they're both moving up and down the field or picks and easy scores.

another look at it is, improved D from phi, wildcat / ground and pound from jets.. i don't think jets want to have a shootout with phi, well cause it's sancheese gunning it. with reevis out there, vick will have to go to the TEs and mccoy you would think.

McCoy, though, is facing a Jets defense that is allowing an average of 83.7 yards on the ground during the three-game winning streak.

jets need this game.. and it's not a gimme(against a weak team) you won't seem them take risks. so as the visting team, well most likely...see a low scoring game attempt from the jets. if jets get smashed early, look for them to take risk and then you have the over; if the game plan goes sour.

just my take though. let me know if you disagree or agree with any of the points.

something like this game..
11/20 PHI at NY GIANTS over/under 45 results: 17-10

[footballgirl]

thanks vulcan I like that analysis and yes I do agree that there will be a few interceptions thrown....I also agree that the jets plan will be to play a very conservative offense. But here is what else I think...I think that philly has nothing to lose these days and will come out for each game ready to play their fast paced offense with vick throwing way down the field (when I think of the philly style game I think of the philly washington game-Mcnab was just singed to a huge multi million dollar contract and vick on the very first play of the game...I think it was from the 10 yeard line throws a huge pass all the way down the field...I think philly socred 50+ points that night)....I agree he is always good for 1-2 interceptions and so is sanchez lets just hope the interceptions lead to points!!!I think that philly will get off to a fast start like last week and will put up the points, the jets will have to keep up with them and play a fast paced game to keep up with the faced paced throwing and scoring of vick....I would love to see what I saw last week...philly can put up 20+ points in the 1H and the jets have a much better chance of scoring than the phins....I hope I am right!!!


oh ya and for last night....I went to bed before I took out my broom....



3-0 last night thats right 3-0

[Amster22]

You have been on a real tear lately. Can't wait for NFL and bowl season. Do you also cap NBA?

Keep up the stellar work!!!

And thanks for lining my pockets for Christmas!!!