EricZ116 2011 NFL Season Thread - in depth analysis and picks

EricZ116 · 09-08-11, 11:36 AM

Before I get in to my Thursday night play, I'll post the team record over/unders that I'm playing this season:

1 unit Denver Broncos under 6 wins +105
- QB controversy to the extreme. I'll be shocked if Tim Tebow doesn't take over at some point, and even after that happens the Broncos are still hopeless. Losing McDaniels will hurt the passing game, and there is no running game to speak of in Denver. Von Miller is a great prospect, but I can't see him impacting the Broncos defense so dramatically as a rookie in a new system - he is not used to playing LB in a 4-3. This team will be lucky to win 6 games, and with the juice being on the over I am glad to make this play.

2 units Jacksonville Jaguars under 6.5 wins -120
- I made this bet on the 3rd, so I'm not sure what the line is now or if it is even up... But I figured even with Garrard, the Jaguars were tipping their hand that they are not interested in winning this season when they traded up to take a QB in the draft. MJD is almost guaranteed to miss games, and that offense is 100% him especially now without Rashad Jennings and Garrard. Their defense has been upgraded, but don't look for too much offense out of the Jags. I'd say they win 5 games.

1 unit New England Patriots over 11.5 +105
- I don't like playing overs because one big injury will kill all hopes of a hit... But this is the exception. The Pats offense will be too dynamic with the additions of Chad Ocho Cinco and Brian Waters. The defense will be beefed up, and this team is on a path straight for the super bowl. I'd be shocked if they didn't win at least 12 games, I almost expect 13 or 14 wins.

2.5 units Oakland Raiders under 6.5 wins -125
- Never pay for a career year... Good advice in fantasy football, and even in the betting world. The success of the Raiders' offense hinges almost 100% on Darren McFadden. Whether or not last year was a fluke, we can all admit that things can't get too much better for DMC... But the Raiders aren't trying to give him any help. Jason Campbell lost his security blanket, Zach Miller... And the defense will be much worse without Nnamdi.

6 units Miami Dolphins under 7.5 wins -130
- Chad Henne. Reggie Bush. Enough said? Eventually, Daniel Thomas will get more carries than Reggie Bush but even when that day comes the Dolphins season will already be over. No team led by Chad Henne should be given a chance at 7.5 wins. This is my most confident play as you can tell.

These bets were all made last week, so I apologize of some of the lines are out of date. If you want my opinion on if you should still take these bets at their new lines, just go ahead and ask. You can pick my brain on any other teams over/unders as well. Like I said with my Patriots pick, I hate picking overs because all it takes is for your QB or star RB to get injured to completely dismantle a season.

EricZ116 · 09-08-11, 11:44 AM

New Orleans Saints +4.5 (-107) @ Green Bay Packers
- 2 units
- Drew Brees as an underdog is 30-19 ATS. I know the Packers are the super bowl champs, and if you asked me who I thought was going to win I would probably pick them. But to give me a possibility of a FG loss with a team as good as the Saints, with a QB like Brees? I'll take that every day of the week. The Saints are my personal NFC championship pick. The public is obviously riding the Super Bowl Champs hard, and hey - that always makes me more confident. The Saints have made some nice additions in the offseason: Mark Ingram figures to be a good runningback from day one, the defense added two huge DTs in Franklin and Rodgers who will both help to clog the run. The Packers will be watching the banner rise, but the Saints have been there before and know how to get focused for the next season. Give me a great team like the Saints + the points.

EricZ116 · 09-09-11, 01:56 PM

Year to date:
0-1 (-2.14 units)

Bad loss, just on the wrong side of that one. We'll get it back with some more smart bets for Sunday.

EricZ116 · 09-11-11, 02:09 AM

Plays:

Buffalo Bills +5 @ KC Chiefs
3 units -102
If Matt Cassell was healthy, I would have jumped on this spread... Now that he's hurt? Sign me up. Tony Moeaki is out as well which will hurt a QB like Cassell who relies on dink and dunk throws. The Chiefs are one of the most overrated teams out there after their season last year, and the Bills are getting no respect right now. Don't underestimate the impact of losing OC Charlie Weis for the Chiefs. This spread is too high for an average Chiefs team.

Colts +9 @ Houston Texans
4 units (-107)
-No Peyton Manning, I know... But the Colts are a well coached, veteran team. They know that they need to go out and give 500% to win with Kerry Collins, and I think they will because there is no way they'll allow their season to start off with an embarrassing loss to their division foe who they still see them as 'little brother'. The Texans may not give it that same 500% because they are facing Kerry Collins. Will they win? Most likely. But 9 points is too much of an overreaction, give me the Colts.

Titans +1 @ Jaguars
1 unit (-107)
The Jaguars just cut David Garrard. Whether you think he's a good QB or not, I can't imagine cutting a veteran leader a week before the season will be a move that is unanimously liked by the team. This is a sign that ownership is giving up on the season, what makes you think the players won't do the same? The Titans are no slouch, and should be looking to take advantage of a weakened division here. Look for Chris Johnson to prove his worth and go off, and you can pencil in McCown for 2 INTs right away.

Seahawks +5 @ 49ers
2 units (-101)
I'll keep this one short. This isn't me showing faith in the Seahawks...But the 49ers aren't good enough to be favored by 5 over anyone in the league right now - especially not in division. Pete Carroll should look to get some revenge on Harbaugh for their pac-10 days.

That's it for plays right now, here are my other picks:

Ravens -1
Bucs -1.5
Bears +2
Rams +4
Browns -6.5
Panthers +6.5
Chargers -8.5
Redskins +3
Cowboys +6
Patriots -6.5
Broncos -3

3 team teaser:
Colts +17
Panthers +14
Patriots -.5

Risk: 3 to win 4.5

Thanks guys, and good luck! Comments please

EricZ116 · 09-11-11, 10:25 AM

No comments anyone?

rsnnh12 · 09-11-11, 10:40 AM

Good luck today! I love the Seahawks and Titans plays. Used both in a teaser.

EricZ116 · 09-11-11, 10:45 AM

Thanks, same to you!

Looks like I moved some lines after making my picks last night :P (I know... it wasn't me lol). Feels good to have gotten some good lines here, still like the Bills at 3.5 (maybe a unit less). Like Titans -1 just as much as +1.

jtorre28 · 09-11-11, 11:04 AM

I m with you on alot of your plays...lets get this

Leeroy62 · 09-11-11, 11:18 AM

Love the titans play

I am also on Lions/Bucs over 43.5
GL to you today..................

EricZ116 · 09-11-11, 11:19 AM

I never bet o/u, but I like that side too. GL all around!

EricZ116 · 09-18-11, 10:27 AM

Awful week. No excuses, was just totally off last week. Gonna turn it around with smart plays.

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins (-3.5)
3 units (-107)
- I'm not sure if I'm taking the first week too seriously with this play, but the Skins looked pretty good and the Cards looked absolutely awful. The Cardinals defense is really soft, and the Redskins have enough playmakers in Santana Moss, Fred Davis, and Tim Hightower to take advantage today. Hightower should be especially pumped up to face the team that essentially gave up on him just a little while ago. The Cardinals are traveling to play a 1 PM game, which is not a good sign and is usually a good betting proposition for the home team.

Tampa Bay Bucs +2 @ Vikings
1 unit (-108)
- I don't have any real angles with this, but without Kevin Williams I think the Bucs are better than the Vikes and to me that's all there is to it. McNabb looked just god awful last week, and I think the young Bucs d-line will do a good job of getting pressure on him and stopping Peterson as best as they can. Look for Blount to get more involved this week, especially with the Vikes missing one of the league's best DTs and that should open up the passing game as well.

Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts +2.5
2 units (-108)
- The Colts were completely humiliated last week vs the Texans. Do you think this veteran group doesn't want to pounce on this lowly Browns team? Outside of Joe Haden, I don't see any Browns defender capable of shutting down the Colts other options like Dallas Clark, who should spend less time blocking after getting man handled by Mario Williams. The Colts have too much pride to lose to a team like the Browns at home.

Houston Texans -3 @ Miami Dolphins
-2 units (+103)
- I know it's disheartening to take the Texans as a road favorite, but hear me out. This isn't me overreacting to the Texans trampling the Colts as much as it is me showing my hate for the Dolphins this year. The Dolphins gave it their all vs the Patriots at home... And still got demolished. I don't understand why this is, but everyone knows how the Dolphins were at home last year... bad. I can't see the Texans being stopped by the Dolphins, and Chad Henne is due for a couple of turnovers against a team that brings pressure like Houston.

San Diego Chargers +7 @ New England Patriots
3 units (-120)
- Bought this up from +6.5. The Chargers are too good of a team to be 7 point underdogs against any team, even on the road. Philip Rivers should have his way with a Patriots defense that Chad Henne had success against - and he didn't have a good rushing duo like the Chargers have. Philip Rivers is 12-4 ATS an underdog, that's good enough for me.

Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 @ Denver Broncos
1 unit (-115)
- Champ Bailey, Brandon Lloyd, and Knowshown Moreno are all potentially out. With half of the stadium chanting for the third string quarterback, I can't imagine the Broncos being on their A-game against the Bengals. The Bengals were awful last year, but their defense isn't as bad as it seems even without Jonathan Joseph. I don't think the Broncos will be able to score more than a TD and some FGs against the Bengals, who have enough receiving options to take advantage of a weakened Broncos secondary.

3 team teaser 6.5 points ties reduce
3 units (+165)
Ravens -.5, Colts +7.5, Chargers +14

Other games:
Bears +5.5
Chiefs +7.5
Jets -9
Bills -4
Ravens -6
Steelers -14
Panthers +10.5
Cowboys -3
Eagles -2.5
Rams +6