From JM:
The NFL bet that has never lost in 89 years happens TOMORROW 9/8! If you don't bet on this game now, you are throwing money away:
Seems like the smart money will be on NOS +4.5
Kev
The NFL bet that has never lost in 89 years happens TOMORROW 9/8! If you don't bet on this game now, you are throwing money away:
NFL - Betting against the Super Bowl champs – Winning the NFL Super Bowl is a remarkable achievement. One can develop a theory that once a new season starts, any team that plays against the defending Super Bowl champ will be more motivated to win than usual. Therefore, would it be a good idea to bet against the previous Super Bowl winner for the first 6 weeks of the season?
This is an angle that has a lot of merit because it definitely has an effect on player motivation. Players are more inspired to win when they’re up against the defending champion, and will often play harder as a result. Back-testing this theory over the years will give you the results that such a system will yield about 55% winners.
Remember, as long as you can win more than 52.4% of your bets (assuming the odds are -110), then you’re in profit over the long run. A winning rate of 55% is well sufficient for a winning betting system.
So there you go – make sure that you bet against the NFL Super Bowl champion on the spread for the first 6 weeks of every season, and you’ll be way up in profits over long term – even if you know nothing about sports!
Now, what about a staking plan? An A-B-C staking plan as I’ve outlined previously can make the system super-effective! Why? Because if the Super Bowl champ manages to cover the spread in week 1 (thus making your [A] bet loses), then their opponent in week 2 becomes even more motivated to win!
And if the champ covers the spread in both their first 2 games, then their 3rd opponent becomes super-motivated to win! By following an A-B-C staking system, betting against the most recent Super Bowl winner on the spread in the first 3 weeks of the season (only betting on the 2nd week if the first week loses against the spread, and only betting on the 3rd week if both the 1st and 2nd week lose against the spread, increasing your stake every time), you would have won each and every single one of these 3-game betting series in the entire history of the NFL! In the NFL, it’s recommended to buy 1 point if your team is an underdog of exactly +2.5 or +6.5, and buy a ½ point if your team is an underdog of exactly +3 or +7.
This is an angle that has a lot of merit because it definitely has an effect on player motivation. Players are more inspired to win when they’re up against the defending champion, and will often play harder as a result. Back-testing this theory over the years will give you the results that such a system will yield about 55% winners.
Remember, as long as you can win more than 52.4% of your bets (assuming the odds are -110), then you’re in profit over the long run. A winning rate of 55% is well sufficient for a winning betting system.
So there you go – make sure that you bet against the NFL Super Bowl champion on the spread for the first 6 weeks of every season, and you’ll be way up in profits over long term – even if you know nothing about sports!
Now, what about a staking plan? An A-B-C staking plan as I’ve outlined previously can make the system super-effective! Why? Because if the Super Bowl champ manages to cover the spread in week 1 (thus making your [A] bet loses), then their opponent in week 2 becomes even more motivated to win!
And if the champ covers the spread in both their first 2 games, then their 3rd opponent becomes super-motivated to win! By following an A-B-C staking system, betting against the most recent Super Bowl winner on the spread in the first 3 weeks of the season (only betting on the 2nd week if the first week loses against the spread, and only betting on the 3rd week if both the 1st and 2nd week lose against the spread, increasing your stake every time), you would have won each and every single one of these 3-game betting series in the entire history of the NFL! In the NFL, it’s recommended to buy 1 point if your team is an underdog of exactly +2.5 or +6.5, and buy a ½ point if your team is an underdog of exactly +3 or +7.
Kev
