2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

[NardVa]

Rams could keep it close and cover but I can also see the Eagles making a big plate late in the game to get the cover.

[John Ryan]

So, here is an interesting and very debatable fact. Any Reid is one of a few head coaches to coach more than 10 seasons on the same team and not win the Super Bowl. In my opinion, he cost the Eagles their one lone appearance against New England and he has cost his team countless other regular season losses by porr time management and poor game day decisions. Bud Grant coached 18 seasons for the Vikings and lost in four Super Bowl appearances. Jeff Fisher coached 16 seasons with the Oilers and Titans and lost in one Super Bowl. Marv Levy lost four Super Bowls with the Bills over 12 seasons, Dan Reeves 12 seasons lost three super bowls, Jim Mora 11 seasons with the Saints and never made it to the Super bowl. Dennis Green 10 seasons and never went to the Super Bowl and Marty Shottenheimer 10 seasons and never made it to a Super Bowl.

It took Bill Cowher 14 seasons to win a Super Bowl and Tom Landry won the Super Bowl in his 12th and 18th seasons.

So, should Andy Reid go down as one of the greatest coaches in Philadelphia Eagles history? or one of the worst? since there have been so many seasons he DID have the talent to win it all.

[John Ryan]

The 'OVER' may be a play as well. My simulator shows a high probability that the Eagles - even if they lose - will gain six or more yards per play. Note that they are 17-5 OVER when they gain 6 or more total yards per play over the last three seasons. Look for my first 5* Lock to be released tomorrow.

I will try to get back to all of you with your pleasant greetings and game matchup analysis questions and opinions. I really appreciate your effort too in making this thread great.

[chopperocker]

week 1 totals of 44 or greater are 5-16 O/U last 5 years.

im not looking to insult, but if you are a sharp capper why would you ever call anything a lock?

[vividjohn45]

sorry to intrude on a piks page but now that i'm out of the fed pen for violating fed law.








look to see me playing versus the cleveland browns and their rabid fans the Dawg Pound.










i'd like to thank the commish for my 40mill salary guarantee and the opportunity to play these fools.

Vick

[John Ryan]

Good question

week 1 totals of 44 or greater are 5-16 O/U last 5 years.

im not looking to insult, but if you are a sharp capper why would you ever call anything a lock?

I have called them this since writing them for SBR over the past 18 months. I have been handicapping sports for 18 years and have just now chosen to call them Locks. My premium plays are called Titans. So, perhaps we should consider a name change or I will clarify in depth that there is no such thing as a LOCK winner.

Great Point!!!!

[barza01]

Can't wait for that pick John. Has your TITAN pick ever lost in the last 18 years?

[chopperocker]

I have called them this since writing them for SBR over the past 18 months. I have been handicapping sports for 18 years and have just now chosen to call them Locks. My premium plays are called Titans. So, perhaps we should consider a name change or I will clarify in depth that there is no such thing as a LOCK winner.

Great Point!!!!

i would hate for any SBR newbies to commit financial suicide. we want to make a profit on our sports investments. NOT solely gamble.

... there is no such thing as a LOCK winner.

Great Point!!!!

[Greyraptor]

GL John. Thanks for the info on the game and will be sure to keep on eye on you. This is my first NFL season on this forum so I am still learning who to tail and who to fade. Your analysis has some good points to it regarding the Eagles "D" and I agree that they are NOT the "dream team" that alot have made them out to be. Honestly, I am laying off the side and going with the totals. Living and dying by the blitz brings mixed results but I do agree that both teams will want to establish the run in the first half making for a low scoring first 30 minutes of football.

[House]

How about the:
Rams + 11
Steelers + 8 not a bad teaser IMO....played that one already x3.....you can go get that chicken dinner,cause this is a winner...on the HOUSE

[knelson]

I'll be rooting Rams, but I have to go Eagles in this one.

[John Ryan]

5* graded play ‘OVER” Pittsburgh/Baltimore set to start at 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, September 11, 2011. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that 36 or more points will be scored in this game.

This represents my first pick here at the John Ryan NFL thread and I will certainly do my best to provide not just solid winning picks, but the comprehensive research why you can bet the play with confidence. I have 18 years of sports handicapping experience, but that is diminished with the start of every new season. I do believe that if you follow these pays and bet a disciplined amount per unit for the entire season you will have an excellent opportunity make some money and learn a ton about football strategies and schemes.

Supporting System
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 22-4 ‘OVER’ for 85% winners since 1983. Play ‘OVER” with any team against the posted total in a game involving two divisional rivals who had good records in the previous season winning between 60% and 75% of their games. Over the past 10 complete seasons this system has produced a perfect 8-0 ‘OVER’ mark. Moreover, 54% of the games played went ‘over’ the posted total by seven or more points.

In past years the first thing that came to mind was defensive war. but these two teams have evolved into more balanced teams with more offensive weapons entering the 2011 season. The Steelers ranked 14th in the NFL gaining 225.1 passing yards per game and 11th gaining 120.3 rushing yards per game. Baltimore ranked 20th in the NFL gaining 208.4 passing yards per game and 14th rushing the ball gaining 114.4 yards per game. I fully expect these offenses to improve and this could be a long-shot AFC Championship matchup.

Baltimore will be able to use the ball control passing attack to open up the running game led by their power back Ray Rice, who is 5-8, 212 pounds. He does not elite speed, but he has a very low center of gravity making it difficult for would-be tacklers to bring him down by themselves. He is also a threat to reach the perimeter of any defense and the Steelers will have to respect that fact and not get pinched in the middle of the defensive front. He also has great hands and this is where he is vastly under rated. In play action pass plays, Rice will be a safety valve that gain chucks of yards in space.

I have him rated as the third best back in the NFL behind Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson. I know many would argue that Marice Jones-Drew, Jamaal Charles, and Arain Foster are better, but I will stick my guns and let’s see where he is ranked in total yards gained from scrimmage at the midpoint of the season.

Ravens quarterback Flacco is at his best in the play action schemes where he has time to run through his progressions and hit the correct receiver. Pittsburgh can counter this with pressure up the middle, but many times you will see Flacco look toward one side of the field after the snap then read the movement of the safety and then throw his passes counter to that safety movement. When in cover-2 situations hitting the tight end on slants is a high percentage pass that will negate interior pressure from the Steelers.

Steelers Offense
The Ravens been known for their defensive strength and intimidation factor, but they will have difficulty gambling with pressure against a very good Steeler offensive line. Even when Roethlisberger is flushed he is strong enough physically and has the superior arm strength to still execute vertical pass plays. Baltimore has to be blitzing at the right times when the Steelers are using their backs to sit in the flat or to be engaged in pass routes and not held back fro pass protection.

In a near mirror look to baltimore, the Steelers will use the ball control pass plays to establish the power running game. This in turn will get play action situations for Roethlisberger to exploit that will be in man coverage. Take the ‘OVER’

[bauerranch]

I like the Rams and best of luck this year

[John Ryan]

Thanks and best of luck to you as well.

you like this OVER play on Baltimore?

[John Ryan]

How about the:
Rams + 11
Steelers + 8 not a bad teaser IMO....played that one already x3.....you can go get that chicken dinner,cause this is a winner...on the HOUSE

Not a big fan of teasers. It has been more than a decade since I laid down advice to play a teaser. For small amounts they can be entertaining, but to make consistent returns playing one game at a time and grinding it out has proved to be the best path to success for me.

[John Ryan]

good comments

GL John. Thanks for the info on the game and will be sure to keep on eye on you. This is my first NFL season on this forum so I am still learning who to tail and who to fade. Your analysis has some good points to it regarding the Eagles "D" and I agree that they are NOT the "dream team" that alot have made them out to be. Honestly, I am laying off the side and going with the totals. Living and dying by the blitz brings mixed results but I do agree that both teams will want to establish the run in the first half making for a low scoring first 30 minutes of football.

Thanks for the info. Anything I can do to help you on your learning curve just say the word. I have listed an "OVER' 5* play here on the thread. Check it out and let me know what you think.

[Hawk007]

Looks like the last 10 meetings have produced 6-3-1 to the over.

GL John!

[keel44]

Does anyone remember hearing something about home dogs that play on a different surface than their opponent's home field? Pretty good I think.....

[Greyraptor]

How about the:
Rams + 11
Steelers + 8 not a bad teaser IMO....played that one already x3.....you can go get that chicken dinner,cause this is a winner...on the HOUSE

I am not much for teasers, pleasers and parlays but DAMN that sounds appealing! GL with that one and I hope it hits House.

[Greyraptor]

Thanks for the info. Anything I can do to help you on your learning curve just say the word. I have listed an "OVER' 5* play here on the thread. Check it out and let me know what you think.

John, first glance at this game screams UNDER, which is where I would expect the public to go initially. I personally like to go against the public in certain situations...this being one of them. I have stated in a different thread that I look for offenses to be more prolific in the first couple of weeks over the defenses with the limited amount of practice teams have had (I just personally believe that it is easier for offenses to get up to speed quicker in general rather than defenses especially those that are implementing new systems). That being said, I am looking for the over in this game as well but admittedly, I take a much more conservative approach to wagering and am going to list this as a two unit pick when I list my Sunday NFL selections later.
Love your analysis and cap on the game and it just cements further my own take on it.
GL to you!

[SomeDayinBuffalo]

I saw this line when it came out and it stood out also for this reason. Always have high scoring games at the start of the season. Only thing i have is that these teams know each other more then any team that they play this year. Well that leads to my question because these teams do know each other so well how much new stuff can they throw at them? and if its something new, they at least know what match up they can use to have the best chance to stop it. Let me know....

[WvGambler]

Who's this pecker?

[btd]

I've followed JR in the SBR picks section and he seems to know what he's talking about , thanx for the time and effort to include ur writeups to back up ur picks, GL to all.

[vividjohn45]

i'll take the over . thanks john. i know urgood majority of time.

[racer43]

Thanks for the input John, much appreciated..... BOL

[Jones10]

GL John looking foward to following throughout the season. I love the rams play since the lines came out, Not sold on the over yet but GL...

[UnderDog_Philip]

I like the over on the Steelers/Ravens, I see both team spreading the D out and throwing more. Both teams know that u can't run in this game.

[John Ryan]

Thanks and best of luck to you as well.

you like this OVER play on Baltimore?

Yes I do.. I like ti alot.. Not a big time 15* play,but I think you oucld step it up to a 5*..

[John Ryan]

Hello all,

Been dealing with a 'little' river flooding today. Have not had a chance to bring more info and I apologize, but I hope to be back on-line and at full sytrength.. I like the Saints tonight... I think the training and practices that Brees has been doing with his teammates will only have them more prepared... Plus, Ingram is a big plus to the running game, which will open up play action pass where we all know Brees is awesome.

So, although an hour from game time, i hope you all get this play

<b>5* New Orleans
+4 points -110 </b>

[John Ryan]

Just an additional note, that Brees would be even better if he had a TE to throw to with great hands like Eric Johnson was a few years back.

[TheLawFirm]

go pack

[Dexter]

I am expecting a number to be posted at 33. This is the type of game that may see the public betting 'OVER', which obviously could push this first half line to 33 1/2. I rarely recommend patience in placing an early wager, but in this case let's see what happens tomorrow. I think there is a reasonable shot at booking a 33 1/2 line..

how did you expect a first half total of 33 when the game total is 44? maybe im missing something....

[knelson]

Yea where'd this 33 come from?

[harlee71]

You guys beat me to this. As soon as I read 33 I about fell out of my chair. Fuk yeah the Under is the play at 33!

[Ethan]

Hello John