Hey SBR, I posted some here in year's past, but have been out of public forums the last two years. I have a proven track record in the regular season with my stats based capping, but have not tried capping the preseason much, so keep that in mind if you want to throw a grain of salt on this analysis, lol. Feel free to jump in with any comments or differing analysis.
Pats @ Bucs: The Bucs' starting cornerbacks are injured and didn't practice Monday. The Bucs signed CB Ashton Youboty off the street. “Hey Youboty, wanna' suit up and play versus Tom Brady this week? Come on down!” That's all bad news facing a Pats team with the best offensive output in NFLx week #1 without even putting Tom Brady and almost all of their biggest stars on the field. Looking at the Pat's secondary, there is serious competition for a starting safety position between 2 time Pro-Bowler B. Merriweather and S. Brown, prompting Belichick to leave the first teamers (Merriweather & Chung) in the entire 1st half versus Jax to work on their communication. Expect the Pat's secondary to once again be tougher than usual for a preseason game.
The Pat's RB Ridley left practice Monday with a muscle pull in his, leaving them a little thin at the position. The Pats had a near even split in pass and run plays in week #1, in spite of a 19-9 halftime lead that ballooned to a blowout in the second half, so expect coach Belichick to continue running a normal offense regardless of the score, adding value to both the Over and the Pats side.
Belichick wanted to see how well his 2nd-stringers would perform by allowing them to get into the flow of an entire game, claiming fear of injuries had nothing to do with his decision. The 2nd preseason game traditionally sees field time split between the starters in the first half and the backups in the second. His starters will have to see SOME action in the preseason, so I'd expect them to go an entire half for this game, perhaps a little more in the 3rd game, while reverting to backups only for the 4th game, which is traditional for most teams anyway. You can't expect the starters to be as fired up for a preseason game as the subs, but I'm not sure any player would feel comfortable not playing hard with coach Belichick watching on the sidelines.
The Bucs' 25-0 drubbing of the Chiefs in the first preseason game is a bit misleading, as the Chiefs have taken things incredibly slow since the lockout ended, treating the opener versus the Bucs as just another part of training camp. The key offensive players for the Chiefs didn't play at all, so the Bucs' banged-up secondary wasn't tested nearly as much as it will be versus the Pats.
The Bucs will have the motivational edge in this game facing a Pats team that always has a target on their back, while also playing their first home game of the preseason. If you look at last season, the Pats won their home opener in week #1 then played at Atlanta in week #2. The result? A 28-10 win versus a good Falcons team who'd also won in week #1, and who didn't make the playoffs in the prior season.
The Patriots could easily get out to a fast start this game while also contributing points in the 2nd half, just like last week. The Bucs have two big-play Qbs getting the majority of the snaps in this game. While the Bucs may keep it close at times during this game, it's still just a preseason game, so don't expect them to make any sacrifices in the 4th quarter to win at all costs, as that's not the objective.
Final score prediction: Patriots 27 – Bucs 17
The Over 36.5 is of definite value as are any plays on the Pats, especially any first half bet that has them as any kind of dog at -110 or better, as well as the game ML and Team Total Over. ***Update, took NE Team Total Over 17 (-120) -- my favorite play on the board after capping the first 7 games.
Pats @ Bucs: The Bucs' starting cornerbacks are injured and didn't practice Monday. The Bucs signed CB Ashton Youboty off the street. “Hey Youboty, wanna' suit up and play versus Tom Brady this week? Come on down!” That's all bad news facing a Pats team with the best offensive output in NFLx week #1 without even putting Tom Brady and almost all of their biggest stars on the field. Looking at the Pat's secondary, there is serious competition for a starting safety position between 2 time Pro-Bowler B. Merriweather and S. Brown, prompting Belichick to leave the first teamers (Merriweather & Chung) in the entire 1st half versus Jax to work on their communication. Expect the Pat's secondary to once again be tougher than usual for a preseason game.
The Pat's RB Ridley left practice Monday with a muscle pull in his, leaving them a little thin at the position. The Pats had a near even split in pass and run plays in week #1, in spite of a 19-9 halftime lead that ballooned to a blowout in the second half, so expect coach Belichick to continue running a normal offense regardless of the score, adding value to both the Over and the Pats side.
Belichick wanted to see how well his 2nd-stringers would perform by allowing them to get into the flow of an entire game, claiming fear of injuries had nothing to do with his decision. The 2nd preseason game traditionally sees field time split between the starters in the first half and the backups in the second. His starters will have to see SOME action in the preseason, so I'd expect them to go an entire half for this game, perhaps a little more in the 3rd game, while reverting to backups only for the 4th game, which is traditional for most teams anyway. You can't expect the starters to be as fired up for a preseason game as the subs, but I'm not sure any player would feel comfortable not playing hard with coach Belichick watching on the sidelines.
The Bucs' 25-0 drubbing of the Chiefs in the first preseason game is a bit misleading, as the Chiefs have taken things incredibly slow since the lockout ended, treating the opener versus the Bucs as just another part of training camp. The key offensive players for the Chiefs didn't play at all, so the Bucs' banged-up secondary wasn't tested nearly as much as it will be versus the Pats.
The Bucs will have the motivational edge in this game facing a Pats team that always has a target on their back, while also playing their first home game of the preseason. If you look at last season, the Pats won their home opener in week #1 then played at Atlanta in week #2. The result? A 28-10 win versus a good Falcons team who'd also won in week #1, and who didn't make the playoffs in the prior season.
The Patriots could easily get out to a fast start this game while also contributing points in the 2nd half, just like last week. The Bucs have two big-play Qbs getting the majority of the snaps in this game. While the Bucs may keep it close at times during this game, it's still just a preseason game, so don't expect them to make any sacrifices in the 4th quarter to win at all costs, as that's not the objective.
Final score prediction: Patriots 27 – Bucs 17
The Over 36.5 is of definite value as are any plays on the Pats, especially any first half bet that has them as any kind of dog at -110 or better, as well as the game ML and Team Total Over. ***Update, took NE Team Total Over 17 (-120) -- my favorite play on the board after capping the first 7 games.
'OVER's have been a solid play so far...
