TFG's simple Regular Season Wins Model

[That Foreign Guy]

My rough as shit season win modelling (YPP based) gives expected values of about:

ARI 6.24
ATL 10.18
BAL 9.70
BUF 5.37
CAR 4.28
CHI 8.62
CIN 7.00
CLE 6.99
DAL 7.48
DEN 5.43
DET 7.61
GNB 10.33
HOU 7.34
IND 8.59
JAC 6.54
KAN 8.27
MIA 6.69
MIN 6.58
NWE 9.25
NOR 11.31
NYG 9.01
NYJ 8.97
OAK 8.51
PHI 9.27
PIT 10.60
SDG 9.81
SFO 6.68
SEA 7.81
STL 7.55
TAM 8.34
TEN 8.55
WAS 7.11

This doesn't include any off season moves so I don't know if I'd even make any leans yet.

OK fine, VS current pinny lines:

Top 3:
NWE Under
OAK Over
TEN Over

Others:
GNB Under
NOR Over
PHI Under
SEA Over

Flame away, as mentioned this is from a basic YPP model so it's hardly earth shattering stuff (I was mostly doing it to try and practice for a minor soccer league I need to set season lines for).

I don't know if I'm going to bet any of these yet, but they're starting points for research.

[Viperpiper]

NE under 9 wins ROFL

[That Foreign Guy]

Sorry if I wasn't clear - the numbers are my predicted win total, it's suggesting NE expect to win 9.25 games which is more than 9.

The reason I said NE under is because Pinny are offering the equivalent of under 11.52 and 9.25 is quite a lot less than 11.52.

Their TO differential was +28 last year, that's about 90 unearned points.

That said, my team strengths don't include off-season moves, and I think NE have been very clever but I doubt they've been +2.27 games clever.

[Smogs]

Sorry if I wasn't clear - the numbers are my predicted win total, it's suggesting NE expect to win 9.25 games which is more than 9.

The reason I said NE under is because Pinny are offering the equivalent of under 11.52 and 9.25 is quite a lot less than 11.52.

Their TO differential was +28 last year, that's about 90 unearned points.

That said, my team strengths don't include off-season moves, and I think NE have been very clever but I doubt they've been +2.27 games clever.

Nice angles guy, i hope it works out

[bb_skoots]

Do you account for strength of schedule? i.e. first place in division vs 4th place ?