After studying a lot of what is going on with the draft. Player workouts. The Combine. Senior Bowl. Reading analysis (most of it is garbage), I think this upcoming draft could be kind of nutty. What I'm not seeing is a lot of QBs with high 'evaluations', but a lot of QBs with a dickload of potential. With at minimum 10 teams absolutely needing an upgrade to the position (immediatly), I am pretty convinced several teams might have no choice but attempt to make moves to get the QB they want.
I'm also pretty certain Carolina will be taking Cam Newton first overall. He's a damn good gamble, despite a ton of bad press (which usually follows QBs that are black or QBs that play in a spread offense). I don't see how Carolina can afford not taking him, especially since they don't have a #2 pick. Unless they were able to trade out of the first overall pick (highly unlikely), I think they're 90%+ married to having to take a QB. A better situation would be to trade back, get a #1 for next year and get a 2nd round pick. That'l give them a shot at upgrading their D and a reasonably good shot at getting a QB in the 2nd round. I don't think Rivera's crew is real happy with having Claussen (I know John Fox wasn't). If worst came to worst, though, I think you have to take Newton. He's got a ridiculous upside if he can learn an NFL offense and improve on his accuracy. But, I can see him flaking out really fast. Not Jam Russel bad, though.
What gets interesting is I think Denver might consider taking a QB (although I doubt it on day 1). They might wait a year. But what has flown under the radar is that Buffalo really should consider a QB either in the first round or second round. Buffalo is in a tough spot picking 3rd. They probably will take the best player available on the board in the first round - but come 2nd round, they will have a LOT of options. I think 4-5 QBs could be off the board by the time they pick in the 2nd round. They could either move back, since they're in a prime 2nd round slot, to a QB starved team, which is quite plausible - or they could take a QB. I think Fitzpatrick being the answer there is not necessarily a strong one. Serviceable, yes, but not good enough.
Then you start getting into a run of teams that NEED a QB with early 1st and 2nd round picks like Cincinatti (Palmer pending), Arizona, San Franciso and Tennessee. What happens in the first round could create a flurry of trades in the 2nd round - or the Bengals could take Gabbert (or the Bills) and then I think you'll see a HUGE run on teams trying to move up to get their guy. It provides for drama I think we've not seen in awhile. This is a solid QB class. Not as 'elite' as some others - but there's a LOT of need at the position. Need really dictates how things will go, not to mention the potential of a lot of these guys.
One team that's in a tricky spot is the Vikings (and also Seattle). The Vikings likely can't reach where they're picking in the first round, but they might. I doubt it, though. Where they pick in the 2nd round might be good enough to give them a solid QB prospect. They could be lucky enough to get a guy like Andy Dalton at their 2nd round spot, but I have a feeling Dalton is moving up boards VERY quickly. Seattle making the playoffs hurt them in a way - picking at the back end of rounds. I have a feeling once the CBA is sorted, Seattle is going to make a run at Kolb. Seattle hired Darrel Bevel, a Childress coordinator and long time Walsh offensive guy. Bevel runs a system similar to that of Philly. It makes a lot of sense, but who knows, they could have Hasselbeck and Whitehurts like last year, which isn't TERRIBLE per se. They really could use a strong prospect at the position.
Players I'm 95% certain will be gone in the first 2 rounds:
Newton, Gabbert, Locker (if he's there at 10, the Skins, I think will take him, he'd fit well into Shanahan's offense), and Dalton
Other QBs i'm 75% certain will be gone in the first 2 rounds:
Kapernick, Ponder and Mallet.
I'm 95% certain that just those 7 listed will be gone in the first 3 rounds.
That's freaking nuts... 7 QBs! It's conceivable that teams ignore the position and pray there's a drop in all of the QBs. It happens sometimes. But I don't think you'll see a drop (which I think was very warrented) like last year with say Clausen and McCoy. To be honest, I didn't like them a whole lot and where they went was about right. I like this class a lot more, as far as QBs with potential go.
I'm hoping there is a run on QBs - especially in the first round. That gives my Pack a shot at a better prospect and more options to take the best player available. Who knows what will happen. The only thing I know is I'm not reading stupid mock drafts. Some of the picks make little to no sense, to me. I think taking the best player available or trading back is usually the best strategy - which is why I don't understand why mock drafts have teams possibly reaching to fill a 'need' to replace a guy, unless that player happens to be the best on the board. This is where Cinci picking 4th is a real wild card. Cinci's last two first rounders were probably more 'need' than 'best available' - Andre Smith being a perfect example. Gresham seemed a need pick last year, also. Who knows what they will do.
One other bit, I really think the Pats might be turning over their picks to move in certain situations to get higher stock prospects. Sooner or later they're going to have to. You can only carry and develop so many 2nd 3rd and 4th rounders for so long.
Either way, I can't wait. Although I wish they'd make it a 2 day affair again.
**EDIT:
Mike Mayock, probably the top draft follower right now, is saying up to 8 QBs could go in the first 3 rounds. Wow.
I'm also pretty certain Carolina will be taking Cam Newton first overall. He's a damn good gamble, despite a ton of bad press (which usually follows QBs that are black or QBs that play in a spread offense). I don't see how Carolina can afford not taking him, especially since they don't have a #2 pick. Unless they were able to trade out of the first overall pick (highly unlikely), I think they're 90%+ married to having to take a QB. A better situation would be to trade back, get a #1 for next year and get a 2nd round pick. That'l give them a shot at upgrading their D and a reasonably good shot at getting a QB in the 2nd round. I don't think Rivera's crew is real happy with having Claussen (I know John Fox wasn't). If worst came to worst, though, I think you have to take Newton. He's got a ridiculous upside if he can learn an NFL offense and improve on his accuracy. But, I can see him flaking out really fast. Not Jam Russel bad, though.
What gets interesting is I think Denver might consider taking a QB (although I doubt it on day 1). They might wait a year. But what has flown under the radar is that Buffalo really should consider a QB either in the first round or second round. Buffalo is in a tough spot picking 3rd. They probably will take the best player available on the board in the first round - but come 2nd round, they will have a LOT of options. I think 4-5 QBs could be off the board by the time they pick in the 2nd round. They could either move back, since they're in a prime 2nd round slot, to a QB starved team, which is quite plausible - or they could take a QB. I think Fitzpatrick being the answer there is not necessarily a strong one. Serviceable, yes, but not good enough.
Then you start getting into a run of teams that NEED a QB with early 1st and 2nd round picks like Cincinatti (Palmer pending), Arizona, San Franciso and Tennessee. What happens in the first round could create a flurry of trades in the 2nd round - or the Bengals could take Gabbert (or the Bills) and then I think you'll see a HUGE run on teams trying to move up to get their guy. It provides for drama I think we've not seen in awhile. This is a solid QB class. Not as 'elite' as some others - but there's a LOT of need at the position. Need really dictates how things will go, not to mention the potential of a lot of these guys.
One team that's in a tricky spot is the Vikings (and also Seattle). The Vikings likely can't reach where they're picking in the first round, but they might. I doubt it, though. Where they pick in the 2nd round might be good enough to give them a solid QB prospect. They could be lucky enough to get a guy like Andy Dalton at their 2nd round spot, but I have a feeling Dalton is moving up boards VERY quickly. Seattle making the playoffs hurt them in a way - picking at the back end of rounds. I have a feeling once the CBA is sorted, Seattle is going to make a run at Kolb. Seattle hired Darrel Bevel, a Childress coordinator and long time Walsh offensive guy. Bevel runs a system similar to that of Philly. It makes a lot of sense, but who knows, they could have Hasselbeck and Whitehurts like last year, which isn't TERRIBLE per se. They really could use a strong prospect at the position.
Players I'm 95% certain will be gone in the first 2 rounds:
Newton, Gabbert, Locker (if he's there at 10, the Skins, I think will take him, he'd fit well into Shanahan's offense), and Dalton
Other QBs i'm 75% certain will be gone in the first 2 rounds:
Kapernick, Ponder and Mallet.
I'm 95% certain that just those 7 listed will be gone in the first 3 rounds.
That's freaking nuts... 7 QBs! It's conceivable that teams ignore the position and pray there's a drop in all of the QBs. It happens sometimes. But I don't think you'll see a drop (which I think was very warrented) like last year with say Clausen and McCoy. To be honest, I didn't like them a whole lot and where they went was about right. I like this class a lot more, as far as QBs with potential go.
I'm hoping there is a run on QBs - especially in the first round. That gives my Pack a shot at a better prospect and more options to take the best player available. Who knows what will happen. The only thing I know is I'm not reading stupid mock drafts. Some of the picks make little to no sense, to me. I think taking the best player available or trading back is usually the best strategy - which is why I don't understand why mock drafts have teams possibly reaching to fill a 'need' to replace a guy, unless that player happens to be the best on the board. This is where Cinci picking 4th is a real wild card. Cinci's last two first rounders were probably more 'need' than 'best available' - Andre Smith being a perfect example. Gresham seemed a need pick last year, also. Who knows what they will do.
One other bit, I really think the Pats might be turning over their picks to move in certain situations to get higher stock prospects. Sooner or later they're going to have to. You can only carry and develop so many 2nd 3rd and 4th rounders for so long.
Either way, I can't wait. Although I wish they'd make it a 2 day affair again.
**EDIT:
Mike Mayock, probably the top draft follower right now, is saying up to 8 QBs could go in the first 3 rounds. Wow.
