live betting

suicidekings · 02-06-11, 01:20 PM

Before the game starts, the books have set a line of GB -3 / ML -150, which implies a 60% chance of a SU win by GB, and a 50/50 chance that GB will cover the -3 (plus the vig). As the game goes on, each particular score/situation has an associated probability of winning, so if GB was to score a TD in the 1Q, the live line might jump to GB -6.5 / ML -300 to reflect the increase in their implied chance of winning (now 75%). But, if you like PIT, you can now get them at +6.5 / ML +240, so by waiting and hoping that GB scored early you got better odds on PIT, but at a higher risk as they are now behind and have to come back to win it.

So live betting can give you HUGE value if you play it right, but can also screw you if you play it wrong.

jvb · 02-06-11, 01:29 PM

so gb 7-0
live line +6 pitt -6gb
game ends gb wins game 32-30
if i bet gb after they score and gat line at -6 it for the game

suicidekings · 02-06-11, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by jvb

so gb 7-0
live line +6 pitt -6gb
game ends gb wins game 32-30
if i bet gb after they score and gat line at -6 it for the game

Typically you're losing value by playing the team on live betting that's currently ahead. In this scenario, the increased value would be on PIT, and you'd be taking a higher risk bet at GB -6 with a disproportionately low expected payout for that risk. If you expect a blowout it might work out, but a good guideline is to never place a live wager that offers you worse value than you had in the pregame lines. So I would never take GB -6 during the game regardless of score.

Power Play · 02-06-11, 01:59 PM

Typically it seems most books shades the lines towards the leading team (because human nature would want to chase/go all in on the leading team) Many times (but not always especially with juice) you're getting nice long term ev on the trailing team.

suicidekings · 02-06-11, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by Power Play

Typically it seems most books shades the lines towards the leading team (because human nature would want to chase/go all in on the leading team) Many times (but not always especially with juice) you're getting nice long term ev on the trailing team.

True. But in this case I would be surprised if they lean too far early in the game. If GB was to score first and they posted a PIT +7.5 it would get a TON of love unless it was very heavily juiced.

Power Play · 02-06-11, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

True. But in this case I would be surprised if they lean too far early in the game. If GB was to score first and they posted a PIT +7.5 it would get a TON of love unless it was very heavily juiced.

Yep definitely have analyse each situation from a sportsbook perspective. Sometimes there are nice ML takes though with the public going all in on the leading team's ML.

suicidekings · 02-06-11, 03:10 PM

One other thing about live betting. You have absolutely HAVE TO be able to quickly calculate fair value for a line if you want to do a lot of live betting. If they're offering something at (-155) and you know the fair value is (-125), it may not be worth it. People bet into a ton of bad lines when they're only given a 60 second window to act.