It's been a helluva run this year, boys, and I'm back for the Super Bowl pick. The upcoming game is very intriguing for several reasons, and brings up quite a few interesting questions. Does anyone have the answers? That's why we handicap it, and ultimately you decide. The "voting" here, however, isn't with your feet but rather with the 
By this time it should be pretty clear who I like, but we do have a spread to consider, and more importantly, we should enumerate the reasons why.
Let's hit the top points, those that most heavily factor into the conclusion that Green Bay will cover the 2.5 and likely 3 won't be a problem either, if you aren't on the Vegas Strip.
As I've said on other poster's threads, there are two major components indicating a Green Bay victory on Sunday:
1) The fast track in Dallas AND
2) The offensive line woes of Pittsburgh
I've heard that some people think Green Bay will be rendered 1-dimensional by Pittsburgh's ability to stuff the run. My first response is, "Green Bay only needs 1 dimension." Remember, people, this is 1 game. The running game is important in a single game, but is generally more of a long term consideration of success given how fickle and adaptable a team can be given its game plan and adjustments to the other team in that very game.
Having said that, I know that Kurt Warner has said that once they spread the field, things opened up for them against Pittsburgh's defense. I've said it before and I'll say it again, this year's Pittsburgh team (which I actually think is a notch below the teams of the past in all facets, just slightly, and those teams actually were pretty fortunate if not downright lucky to win the past 2 Super Bowls) has a susceptible secondary. This has been the case all year. With the proper game plan, and God knows they have the weapons, the Packers should be able to throw AND run out of a spread-set. Don't forget that although it can be somewhat risky, Rodgers is really really fast and he can cause major problems for the opposing team when and if they are spread apart. The perfect footing of the playing field only helps that. Looking to Pittsburgh's offense, they have run the ball well recently but this team really hasn't been a running team for a few years now, they rely on Big Ben standing for a LONG time in the pocket (risking many sacks) in order to make big plays in the air, especially on third down. Now, he is one of the best at doing this and I'm definitely not underestimating him here. The line issue seems like it will haunt Pittsburgh here regarding both run and pass and remember, the only weapon they have to stretch the field (perhaps this is all they need) is Wallace. But on the other side, the Packers almost have 5. There's just something about James Starks and his late season performance, which just seems to happen for the right team and the right time. Was he supposed to do it against Atlanta or Chicago? In the end, he was effective enough, if not exceeding expectations. That's just gut feeling, though.
So (1) and (2) converge and become the two biggest reasons why Titletown gets another.
Along with the Starks gut feeling, that is, "It just seems like it is Green Bay's year," we also have the fact that Pittsburgh as said previously, was arguably not even the better team the last time they won the Super Bowl. You could look at it two ways: they have the intangibles (including buying off the refs in the Super Bowl vs. Seattle) and they have the clutch playmakers or ... their luck is going to run out.
I think the combination of luck running out and that they are relatively overmatched (if McCarthy does things right!) is the obvious play.
I should say one more thing about the Green Bay defense: they will be keying on Mendenhall early. He is definitely the wild card (along with the O-line). My guess (no IFs here, I hate those) is that he has trouble and that spells trouble for the Pittsburgh offense in general. Green Bay will get penetration and pressure, with sacks on 2nd and 3rd down. In general this game seems to be an OVER play, but I only have real faith in GB getting more than 24. I don't see Pittsburgh scoring that much.
All in all, my recommendation is to take Green Bay -2.5 and forget the rest. I've been riding them and there is no reason to stop now.
When I see my proposition bets come out, I'll come back and throw a few thoughts out there, but I'll leave a teaser and tell you I'll be betting on
Jordy Nelson
Heath Miller
James Starks
for first TD, unless the odds aren't double digits for the top two and good for Starks.
Best of luck to all. It's been a fun playoff run.
SG
By this time it should be pretty clear who I like, but we do have a spread to consider, and more importantly, we should enumerate the reasons why.
Let's hit the top points, those that most heavily factor into the conclusion that Green Bay will cover the 2.5 and likely 3 won't be a problem either, if you aren't on the Vegas Strip.
As I've said on other poster's threads, there are two major components indicating a Green Bay victory on Sunday:
1) The fast track in Dallas AND
2) The offensive line woes of Pittsburgh
I've heard that some people think Green Bay will be rendered 1-dimensional by Pittsburgh's ability to stuff the run. My first response is, "Green Bay only needs 1 dimension." Remember, people, this is 1 game. The running game is important in a single game, but is generally more of a long term consideration of success given how fickle and adaptable a team can be given its game plan and adjustments to the other team in that very game.
Having said that, I know that Kurt Warner has said that once they spread the field, things opened up for them against Pittsburgh's defense. I've said it before and I'll say it again, this year's Pittsburgh team (which I actually think is a notch below the teams of the past in all facets, just slightly, and those teams actually were pretty fortunate if not downright lucky to win the past 2 Super Bowls) has a susceptible secondary. This has been the case all year. With the proper game plan, and God knows they have the weapons, the Packers should be able to throw AND run out of a spread-set. Don't forget that although it can be somewhat risky, Rodgers is really really fast and he can cause major problems for the opposing team when and if they are spread apart. The perfect footing of the playing field only helps that. Looking to Pittsburgh's offense, they have run the ball well recently but this team really hasn't been a running team for a few years now, they rely on Big Ben standing for a LONG time in the pocket (risking many sacks) in order to make big plays in the air, especially on third down. Now, he is one of the best at doing this and I'm definitely not underestimating him here. The line issue seems like it will haunt Pittsburgh here regarding both run and pass and remember, the only weapon they have to stretch the field (perhaps this is all they need) is Wallace. But on the other side, the Packers almost have 5. There's just something about James Starks and his late season performance, which just seems to happen for the right team and the right time. Was he supposed to do it against Atlanta or Chicago? In the end, he was effective enough, if not exceeding expectations. That's just gut feeling, though.
So (1) and (2) converge and become the two biggest reasons why Titletown gets another.
Along with the Starks gut feeling, that is, "It just seems like it is Green Bay's year," we also have the fact that Pittsburgh as said previously, was arguably not even the better team the last time they won the Super Bowl. You could look at it two ways: they have the intangibles (including buying off the refs in the Super Bowl vs. Seattle) and they have the clutch playmakers or ... their luck is going to run out.
I think the combination of luck running out and that they are relatively overmatched (if McCarthy does things right!) is the obvious play.
I should say one more thing about the Green Bay defense: they will be keying on Mendenhall early. He is definitely the wild card (along with the O-line). My guess (no IFs here, I hate those) is that he has trouble and that spells trouble for the Pittsburgh offense in general. Green Bay will get penetration and pressure, with sacks on 2nd and 3rd down. In general this game seems to be an OVER play, but I only have real faith in GB getting more than 24. I don't see Pittsburgh scoring that much.
All in all, my recommendation is to take Green Bay -2.5 and forget the rest. I've been riding them and there is no reason to stop now.
When I see my proposition bets come out, I'll come back and throw a few thoughts out there, but I'll leave a teaser and tell you I'll be betting on
Jordy Nelson
Heath Miller
James Starks
for first TD, unless the odds aren't double digits for the top two and good for Starks.
Best of luck to all. It's been a fun playoff run.
SG
The Packers will have huge issues running against the Steelers front seven.I am one who is impressed by what James Starks has done,but ready to say he is the answer.The Packers are going to need to run the ball to help Rodgers with the play-action.They are tough and get after it better than anyone in the league.That being said, I really believe that the Packers will be able to throw against the Steelers (ie Week 15 of 2009) if they are able to keep the pass rush at bay.Aaron Smith is most likely going to play for the first time in months, so the task gets immediately more complicated.I think playing in a controlled environment will allow Rodgers to have a heck of a game.Troy Polamalu is going to have two weeks to get back to 100%,you could tell he wasn't on top of his game this week. 
