Help with Basic Moneyline Math

[Romanov]

Using Packers -190 and Bears +171 I calculated that the Pack had a 64% probability to win the game according the Pinnacle and the Bears had 36%. Moving in reverse, removing vig the ML would then be -178 and +178. Does that reveal anything? Should I bet either ML? I think that the -178 shows that the packers ml is bad value and the same for the bears.

I did the same thing and got the same middling no vig ML on the steelers jets game. MLs went from -205 and +184 to +/-198. Is this useless?

[d2bets]

Doesn't tell you who's going to win but your math is about right. -178 implied a 63% chance to win. IMHO the game is way closer than that, but that's where the market is at.

[Romanov]

Could a mod rename my post "Moneyline Winner and Tits" so people at least open the page

[wquine]

Would also help if you had some on your avatar.

[Romanov]

Doesn't tell you who's going to win but your math is about right. -178 implied a 63% chance to win. IMHO the game is way closer than that, but that's where the market is at.

Thanks. I rounded for the post. So right now betting the ML is a bad bet either way, based solely on the numbers here?

[d2bets]

Thanks. I rounded for the post. So right now betting the ML is a bad bet either way, based solely on the numbers here?

Not sure how you got from point A to Point B there. If you can get +178 and you think the Bears have better than a 37% chance to win, then it's a good bet.

[Romanov]

Not sure how you got from point A to Point B there. If you can get +178 and you think the Bears have better than a 37% chance to win, then it's a good bet.

Okay. I assumed as much but nowhere can we get +178 for the bears. And yes, I think the bears have a great shot to win at home. I dont understand why the line isn't +2.5