The Jets will travel to Pittsburgh this week to take on the Steelers for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. These two teams just played a month ago in Pittsburgh so we should have a pretty good idea of what to expect, problem is, so should the books. The Jets won a close game 22-17 back on December 19th and Vegas is expecting another close one making the Steelers small favorites at home. (-3.5 -105) Luckily for us, their last game was misleading, it will be a totally different outcome this week and I plan to take full advantage of it. Here are some things that will be different...
The Atmosphere:
Lets face it, there's home games, and then there is AFC Championship Home Games. It was probably a nice crowd a month ago, but no way will that crowd match what we will see this weekend. The towels will be waving faster and the people will be louder. This will be a factor...
Motivation:
A month ago, the Jets were 9-4, coming off a loss to the Dolpins, and staring at the Steelers and Bears on the schedule in the coming weeks. It was do or die time for them, they were still in survival mode.
The Steelers on the other hand were 10-3 and had Carolina and Cleveland to finish out there schedule. They knew they could afford to cruise into the playoffs.
Troy Polamalu Will Play:
Now, I shouldn't have to explain how important this guy is, but I'll try. A month ago, the Steelers failed to intercept a pass and only sacked Sanchez one time. In case you haven't watched any Steelers games, this is what the long haired wild-man does, intercepts balls and sacks quarterbacks. Another thing that I noticed is that Braylon Edwards had 8 catches for about 100 yards last month. This will not be the case with Polamalu in the game. He is great at jumping slant routes, something Edwards and the Jets rely heavy on when they need crucial yardage. Polamalu is one of the most dominant defensive players in the league, and I can promise you he was missed on December 19th...
Brad Smith Will Not Run Back Opening Kick:
This guy didn't even play against the Patriots and I haven't even checked if he'll play this week. The guy with all the kids is a good replacement to run back kicks but either way the Jets won't run back the opening kick. Tomlin and the coaching staff wont let it happen. Why is this such a big deal you ask? The Jets play better than most teams with a lead, but play much worse than your average team when behind. It's who they are, they love to control the clock and keep things simple for their young quarterback. That opening TD for the Jets allowed them to play conservative that much longer into the game.
The Steelers took a 17-10 lead in the third quarter last month, lets assume for a second they didn't have that return, the score could have easily been 17-3 and now Sanchez is forced to play like Warren Moon in his prime... Now lets assume the Steelers have Polamalu roaming around with this 17-3 lead. Are you starting to picture what I see happening this weekend???
Reality Will Set In:
Everything favors the Steelers, they are the better team, better quarterback, better defense, playing at home, I could go on and on, Ben is better in the cold than Sanchez, Steelers are built to stop the run while the Jets rely on the run... You could even say that the Jets are coming off an emotional high after their big win over the Patriots, but I never put much stock into that. The edge we have is the books know they will get Jets action and can afford to hang a line that is off by about 3-4 points. Lets not forget that the Steelers were 6 point favorites a month ago without Polamalu. With Polamalu they would have been about 7.5 point favorites, which is what I think the fair line is this week.
Yeah, the Jets beat a soft Patriots team that they match up well with, lets see how they do this Sunday against a team that will punch them back...
STEELERS -3 -130
The Atmosphere:
Lets face it, there's home games, and then there is AFC Championship Home Games. It was probably a nice crowd a month ago, but no way will that crowd match what we will see this weekend. The towels will be waving faster and the people will be louder. This will be a factor...
Motivation:
A month ago, the Jets were 9-4, coming off a loss to the Dolpins, and staring at the Steelers and Bears on the schedule in the coming weeks. It was do or die time for them, they were still in survival mode.
The Steelers on the other hand were 10-3 and had Carolina and Cleveland to finish out there schedule. They knew they could afford to cruise into the playoffs.
Troy Polamalu Will Play:
Now, I shouldn't have to explain how important this guy is, but I'll try. A month ago, the Steelers failed to intercept a pass and only sacked Sanchez one time. In case you haven't watched any Steelers games, this is what the long haired wild-man does, intercepts balls and sacks quarterbacks. Another thing that I noticed is that Braylon Edwards had 8 catches for about 100 yards last month. This will not be the case with Polamalu in the game. He is great at jumping slant routes, something Edwards and the Jets rely heavy on when they need crucial yardage. Polamalu is one of the most dominant defensive players in the league, and I can promise you he was missed on December 19th...
Brad Smith Will Not Run Back Opening Kick:
This guy didn't even play against the Patriots and I haven't even checked if he'll play this week. The guy with all the kids is a good replacement to run back kicks but either way the Jets won't run back the opening kick. Tomlin and the coaching staff wont let it happen. Why is this such a big deal you ask? The Jets play better than most teams with a lead, but play much worse than your average team when behind. It's who they are, they love to control the clock and keep things simple for their young quarterback. That opening TD for the Jets allowed them to play conservative that much longer into the game.
The Steelers took a 17-10 lead in the third quarter last month, lets assume for a second they didn't have that return, the score could have easily been 17-3 and now Sanchez is forced to play like Warren Moon in his prime... Now lets assume the Steelers have Polamalu roaming around with this 17-3 lead. Are you starting to picture what I see happening this weekend???
Reality Will Set In:
Everything favors the Steelers, they are the better team, better quarterback, better defense, playing at home, I could go on and on, Ben is better in the cold than Sanchez, Steelers are built to stop the run while the Jets rely on the run... You could even say that the Jets are coming off an emotional high after their big win over the Patriots, but I never put much stock into that. The edge we have is the books know they will get Jets action and can afford to hang a line that is off by about 3-4 points. Lets not forget that the Steelers were 6 point favorites a month ago without Polamalu. With Polamalu they would have been about 7.5 point favorites, which is what I think the fair line is this week.
Yeah, the Jets beat a soft Patriots team that they match up well with, lets see how they do this Sunday against a team that will punch them back...
STEELERS -3 -130
Rich, White, QB's do not rape women... More media driven bullshit..
