I'll start by saying GB -3 -115 to -125 is a very fair line. GB has been getting tons of respect by oddsmakers, and deservingly so. They were preseason favs to win NFC, and despite all adversity, are in prime position to win it with them playing their best football right now. GB was also -3 in CHI in September.
GB O vs. CHI D:
GB O Rankings: Total - 9th (358.1); Scoring - 10th (24.2); Rushing - 24th (100.4); Passing - 5th (257.8)
CHI D Rankings: Total - 9th (314.3); Scoring - 4th (17.9); Rushing - 2nd (90.1); Passing - 20th (224.2)
GB D vs. CHI O:
GB D Rankings: Total - 5th (309.1); Scoring - 2nd (15); Rushing - 18th (114.9); Passing - 5th (194.2)
CHI O Rankings: Total - 30th (289.4); Scoring - 21st (20.9); Rushing - 22nd (101); Passing - 28th (188.4)
GB Differential: Total - +49; Scoring - +9.2; Rushing - -14.5; Passing - +63.6
CHI Differntial: Total - -24.9; Scoring - +3; Rushing - +10.9; Passing - -35.8
Strength of Schedule/Power Ratings:
(Sargarin Schedule Rankings)
GB 9th
CHI 13th
(Sargarin Power Rankings)
GB 3rd
CHI 7th
Wins vs. top 10: GB 6-3; CHI 3-3'
Angles For Bears:
1) Stout #2 ranked run D can shut down GB running game for 3rd time (gave up just 63 and 53 first two meetings). This will cause 2nd/3rd and longs, and will put all the pressure on GB passing game. CHI did a good job containg GB's passing game first two meetings. They prevented the big play, and held GB to 4-10 and 2-11 on 3rd down conversions in both games.
2) Field conditions will probably be shit in CHI, which could slow down GB offense. We saw receivers slipping all over the place in the Divisonal game. If GB receivers struggle to get separation and burst, it could be a big problem for them.
3) Special Teams. Hester, obvious. GB coverage teams sometimes lacking as we saw Saturday and the first meeting in September when Hester returned one.
Overrated/False Angles For Bears:
1) Home Field - NFL HFA time and again proves to be not so important. Would you rather be home than away? Yes, but it's not paramount. And GB has handled last 2 road playoff games very well.
2) "Motivation" in a Rivalry game. People will say "Lovie always does well vs. Packers". Give me a break with this. Packers are equally as motivated, and Lovie is a soft-spoken, seemingly slow and stupid coach. I really have no idea what he does exactly.
Angles For Packers:
1) Better D. Packers are better than Bears in every Defensive category, except rushing. Packers are also 2nd in the league in Sacks and sacked Cutler 3 times in the first meeting, and 6 in the 2nd. CHI is a league high in giving up sacks - 56. Packers should be able to get tons of pressure on Cutler again. Capers (D coord) is just a genius in schemeing blitz packages. GB held CHI to just 13 and 3 Offensive points and 276 and 227 yards in both meetings.
2) Better O. Outside rushing (which is close comparatively), GB is head and shoulders above CHI in offense. GB outgained CHI by 160 yards combined in both meetings. Rodgers' superiority to Cutler is self-evident from every statistical category, to pocket awareness, accuaracy, release speed, the ability to keep eyes focued down field, mobility, and the ability to avoid pressure. GB also gave up 18 fewer sacks, so maybe a slight advantage in Oline as well. CHI beats GB in TE category, but GB's receiving core with Jones, Driver, Nelson, and Jennings, again, is just far superior.
3) Road Tested/played very well against quality teams. GB 6-3 vs. Sargarin top 10 teams (@ Philly twice, @ NYJ, Giants, Bears, @ ATL). In their 3 losses, they outgained/outplayed NE @ NE (with a back-up QB) 369 to 249, gave up a pick 6, gave up a 70 yd lineman KR, etc.; outgained/outplayed ATL @ ATL 418 to 294, fumbled on goal line, etc.; they outgained/outplayed CHI @ CHI 379 to 276, dominated TOP 35:49 to 24:11, were penalized 18 times for 152 yards, had a key TO, gave up PR, etc. If you laugh at the "they got outplayed" line, then I direct you to Saturday against ATL, to see what happens when GB doesn't beat themselves and plays the same team again @ their near full potential.
4) Bears overrated? I think so, much like ATL. Both played extremely favorable scheudles and were fortunate all year (first Lions game debacle, played Miami with 3rd string QB, etc.). Bears were at home for their 3 toughest non-Divisional games: NYJ, NE, Philly. They were outgained by all 3, killed by NE, beat NYJ and Philly. Despite their advantage playing at home, they are only 3-3 vs. top 10 teams. Now their only playoff game was home against Seatlle...a 7-9 team with the 28th total O and 27th total D. Just not buying them like I didn't buy ATL and I think GB is much better.
5) Vegas Respect. Hanging a -3 -125 for a road team in the NFC title game is pretty crazy. Vegas doesn't give a home team in title game 3 points with reduced juice for no good reason. This after GB was only +1 on the road to a #1 seed; unprecedented. GB was also preseason NFC favs and are now SB favs.
6) Momentum. This can be overrated, but I think it's real and legit. GB has been in a must win situation for 4 straight weeks and delievered in all of them. You can definitely draw parallels to 2005 Steelers and 2007 Giants (Wild Cards who won SB). With Rodgers's and teams's confidence and momentum at an all-time hard, you have to think it will, more likely than not, carry over into Sunday and they continue to soar.
The lean is clearly on GB for me, don't know how much to play yet, though.
GB O vs. CHI D:
GB O Rankings: Total - 9th (358.1); Scoring - 10th (24.2); Rushing - 24th (100.4); Passing - 5th (257.8)
CHI D Rankings: Total - 9th (314.3); Scoring - 4th (17.9); Rushing - 2nd (90.1); Passing - 20th (224.2)
GB D vs. CHI O:
GB D Rankings: Total - 5th (309.1); Scoring - 2nd (15); Rushing - 18th (114.9); Passing - 5th (194.2)
CHI O Rankings: Total - 30th (289.4); Scoring - 21st (20.9); Rushing - 22nd (101); Passing - 28th (188.4)
GB Differential: Total - +49; Scoring - +9.2; Rushing - -14.5; Passing - +63.6
CHI Differntial: Total - -24.9; Scoring - +3; Rushing - +10.9; Passing - -35.8
Strength of Schedule/Power Ratings:
(Sargarin Schedule Rankings)
GB 9th
CHI 13th
(Sargarin Power Rankings)
GB 3rd
CHI 7th
Wins vs. top 10: GB 6-3; CHI 3-3'
Angles For Bears:
1) Stout #2 ranked run D can shut down GB running game for 3rd time (gave up just 63 and 53 first two meetings). This will cause 2nd/3rd and longs, and will put all the pressure on GB passing game. CHI did a good job containg GB's passing game first two meetings. They prevented the big play, and held GB to 4-10 and 2-11 on 3rd down conversions in both games.
2) Field conditions will probably be shit in CHI, which could slow down GB offense. We saw receivers slipping all over the place in the Divisonal game. If GB receivers struggle to get separation and burst, it could be a big problem for them.
3) Special Teams. Hester, obvious. GB coverage teams sometimes lacking as we saw Saturday and the first meeting in September when Hester returned one.
Overrated/False Angles For Bears:
1) Home Field - NFL HFA time and again proves to be not so important. Would you rather be home than away? Yes, but it's not paramount. And GB has handled last 2 road playoff games very well.
2) "Motivation" in a Rivalry game. People will say "Lovie always does well vs. Packers". Give me a break with this. Packers are equally as motivated, and Lovie is a soft-spoken, seemingly slow and stupid coach. I really have no idea what he does exactly.
Angles For Packers:
1) Better D. Packers are better than Bears in every Defensive category, except rushing. Packers are also 2nd in the league in Sacks and sacked Cutler 3 times in the first meeting, and 6 in the 2nd. CHI is a league high in giving up sacks - 56. Packers should be able to get tons of pressure on Cutler again. Capers (D coord) is just a genius in schemeing blitz packages. GB held CHI to just 13 and 3 Offensive points and 276 and 227 yards in both meetings.
2) Better O. Outside rushing (which is close comparatively), GB is head and shoulders above CHI in offense. GB outgained CHI by 160 yards combined in both meetings. Rodgers' superiority to Cutler is self-evident from every statistical category, to pocket awareness, accuaracy, release speed, the ability to keep eyes focued down field, mobility, and the ability to avoid pressure. GB also gave up 18 fewer sacks, so maybe a slight advantage in Oline as well. CHI beats GB in TE category, but GB's receiving core with Jones, Driver, Nelson, and Jennings, again, is just far superior.
3) Road Tested/played very well against quality teams. GB 6-3 vs. Sargarin top 10 teams (@ Philly twice, @ NYJ, Giants, Bears, @ ATL). In their 3 losses, they outgained/outplayed NE @ NE (with a back-up QB) 369 to 249, gave up a pick 6, gave up a 70 yd lineman KR, etc.; outgained/outplayed ATL @ ATL 418 to 294, fumbled on goal line, etc.; they outgained/outplayed CHI @ CHI 379 to 276, dominated TOP 35:49 to 24:11, were penalized 18 times for 152 yards, had a key TO, gave up PR, etc. If you laugh at the "they got outplayed" line, then I direct you to Saturday against ATL, to see what happens when GB doesn't beat themselves and plays the same team again @ their near full potential.
4) Bears overrated? I think so, much like ATL. Both played extremely favorable scheudles and were fortunate all year (first Lions game debacle, played Miami with 3rd string QB, etc.). Bears were at home for their 3 toughest non-Divisional games: NYJ, NE, Philly. They were outgained by all 3, killed by NE, beat NYJ and Philly. Despite their advantage playing at home, they are only 3-3 vs. top 10 teams. Now their only playoff game was home against Seatlle...a 7-9 team with the 28th total O and 27th total D. Just not buying them like I didn't buy ATL and I think GB is much better.
5) Vegas Respect. Hanging a -3 -125 for a road team in the NFC title game is pretty crazy. Vegas doesn't give a home team in title game 3 points with reduced juice for no good reason. This after GB was only +1 on the road to a #1 seed; unprecedented. GB was also preseason NFC favs and are now SB favs.
6) Momentum. This can be overrated, but I think it's real and legit. GB has been in a must win situation for 4 straight weeks and delievered in all of them. You can definitely draw parallels to 2005 Steelers and 2007 Giants (Wild Cards who won SB). With Rodgers's and teams's confidence and momentum at an all-time hard, you have to think it will, more likely than not, carry over into Sunday and they continue to soar.
The lean is clearly on GB for me, don't know how much to play yet, though.
Important stats you left out is that GB is better in red zone, third down, completed plays per game, and points from long drives per game. Bank GB heavy.
Jay Cutler over Rodgers not a chance kids. Did someone say something about snow what you think Packers will have trouble in bad weather. Did anyone see how good the Bears were at home in very bad weather against the Pats? Packers defense ranks right up there with the Bears. Packers obviously have a advantage on offense. Give the Bears special teams and thats about it in this game. What the Packers did to the Eagles and Falcons very impressive. What the Bears did to the Seahawks not so much. Packers all day sunday kids.
