I would like to volunteer my opinion on the Bears-Seahawks game this weekend as I think I see a very nice opportunity here. If there are any Bears or Seahawks fans with in depth knowledge of these two teams, I would love to hear some feedback. Please however pass on commenting if your only feedback is "Cutler Sucks" or "Marshawn Lynch is ridiculous"
Technical analysis of this game would probably make Chicago a 7.5 to 8.5 point favorite based on Chicago's inconsistency and Seattle's two recent wins. This would immediately indicate that there is a small edge in betting Seattle, and a small disadvantage in betting Chicago. I don't think the technical side is worth arguing as I have seen/heard models in the 7.5 to 10 range all week. I would like to discuss the intangibles behind this game, which I believe indicate that there is value in Chicago. This is where things get tricky.
I immediately want to discount Seattle's past two wins. I think we all know that neither St. Louis or New Orleans is a strong road team built to win in cold weather late in the season. The St. Louis game is tough to analyze because Whitehurst was playing, but nothing Seattle did impressed me, and St. Louis easily could have won that game. I recall a few drops and plenty of missed opportunities from the Rams. We almost saw a scenario in which a rookie QB lead a dome team into Seattle to eliminate the Seahawks from the playoffs. That doesn't give me a lot of confidence in Seattle.
Last week I placed a very large wager on Seattle to cover 10.5. New Orleans was a shell of an NFL team, decimated by injury. Seattle held a huge home field advantage in that game, the New Orleans defense couldn't hold up, and Seattle won a great game. Still, despite 0 running game and half a roster, the Saints put themselves in a position to win.
Let's look at the basics for Seattle. If you allow me to discount those last two games, they are a 6-9 team. Even if you don't want to discount them, here are Seattle's games against playoff caliber teams this year:
@TB 15-38 L
vs ATL 18-34 L
vs KC 24-42 L
@ NO 19-34 L
vs NYG 7-41 L
@ CHI 23-20 W
(Honestly I don't know how to feel about that first Bears game, and it certainly wouldn't be solid handicapping to completely throw it out. I would love to hear feedback from anyone who watched that game, or could tell me more about the state of each team at the time of the game. If it weren't for that single game I would be feel much better about playing Chicago huge, but perhaps there is a matchup advantage for Seattle that I am missing?)
Looking at Seattle in general, I believe they were in perfect position to win their last two games, they have been dominated by good teams all year, and they are historically terrible on the road. Last week was obviously the emotional pinnacle of their season and they won't be able to maintain that in Chicago. They are traveling to an 11-5 team, with a dominant defense and two weeks rest.
I have to admit I don't love the Bears because their offense has certainly come up flat at times. However if you look at the back half of their season, they managed to put up 27, 31, 24, 40, and 38 points in five games. They have the potential to put up points when their offense and special teams are clicking. I don't think we have to discuss their defense too much as statistically they rank in the top 10 in nearly every category. I don't see how Seattle can move the ball on Chicago, avoid turnovers, and hold up on the road for 60 minutes.
In conclusion, I am not calling this a "lock" and I don't encourage betting your house on 1 game. But I do feel that the Bears are in a perfect spot for a big win, Seattle may be coming down from their emotional high, and there is more than enough evidence to justify betting a 10 point favorite.
Final Score prediction:
Bears 31
Seahawks 13
Technical analysis of this game would probably make Chicago a 7.5 to 8.5 point favorite based on Chicago's inconsistency and Seattle's two recent wins. This would immediately indicate that there is a small edge in betting Seattle, and a small disadvantage in betting Chicago. I don't think the technical side is worth arguing as I have seen/heard models in the 7.5 to 10 range all week. I would like to discuss the intangibles behind this game, which I believe indicate that there is value in Chicago. This is where things get tricky.
I immediately want to discount Seattle's past two wins. I think we all know that neither St. Louis or New Orleans is a strong road team built to win in cold weather late in the season. The St. Louis game is tough to analyze because Whitehurst was playing, but nothing Seattle did impressed me, and St. Louis easily could have won that game. I recall a few drops and plenty of missed opportunities from the Rams. We almost saw a scenario in which a rookie QB lead a dome team into Seattle to eliminate the Seahawks from the playoffs. That doesn't give me a lot of confidence in Seattle.
Last week I placed a very large wager on Seattle to cover 10.5. New Orleans was a shell of an NFL team, decimated by injury. Seattle held a huge home field advantage in that game, the New Orleans defense couldn't hold up, and Seattle won a great game. Still, despite 0 running game and half a roster, the Saints put themselves in a position to win.
Let's look at the basics for Seattle. If you allow me to discount those last two games, they are a 6-9 team. Even if you don't want to discount them, here are Seattle's games against playoff caliber teams this year:
@TB 15-38 L
vs ATL 18-34 L
vs KC 24-42 L
@ NO 19-34 L
vs NYG 7-41 L
@ CHI 23-20 W
(Honestly I don't know how to feel about that first Bears game, and it certainly wouldn't be solid handicapping to completely throw it out. I would love to hear feedback from anyone who watched that game, or could tell me more about the state of each team at the time of the game. If it weren't for that single game I would be feel much better about playing Chicago huge, but perhaps there is a matchup advantage for Seattle that I am missing?)
Looking at Seattle in general, I believe they were in perfect position to win their last two games, they have been dominated by good teams all year, and they are historically terrible on the road. Last week was obviously the emotional pinnacle of their season and they won't be able to maintain that in Chicago. They are traveling to an 11-5 team, with a dominant defense and two weeks rest.
I have to admit I don't love the Bears because their offense has certainly come up flat at times. However if you look at the back half of their season, they managed to put up 27, 31, 24, 40, and 38 points in five games. They have the potential to put up points when their offense and special teams are clicking. I don't think we have to discuss their defense too much as statistically they rank in the top 10 in nearly every category. I don't see how Seattle can move the ball on Chicago, avoid turnovers, and hold up on the road for 60 minutes.
In conclusion, I am not calling this a "lock" and I don't encourage betting your house on 1 game. But I do feel that the Bears are in a perfect spot for a big win, Seattle may be coming down from their emotional high, and there is more than enough evidence to justify betting a 10 point favorite.
Final Score prediction:
Bears 31
Seahawks 13
