MNF Hedge - Help Needed - 50 point reward for helpful post(s)

[Dex17]

Guys,
I'm looking for hedging feedback regarding a bunch of open bets I have that all involve one pick of tonight's game. I will give 50 points to the post(s) that I deem most helpful, which must include risk/reward breakdown (i.e., do not just say "parlay ATL with the under"). I want #s.

Here's a summary of the open parlays/teasers, relevant to tonight's game:
NO +120: risking 40 to win 490
NO +3 risking: 30 to win 69
NO +10: risking 125 to win 307
NO/ATL over 43: risking 140 to win 245
TOTAL: risking 335 to win 1017

How would you hedge this?

[yisman]

Honestly, hedging is almost always -EV. You're better off riding it out. Sure, you could lose in this instance, but in the long term, you'll win.

Hedging by taking a presumably sharp line on the other side is just not profitable in the long term.

[ClimbSomeRocks]

ATL -1.5 for 70. This covers the first two bets, and the NO +10 one could win even if ATL covers. Under 43 you could hedge up to the 140 that you bet, however over 43 seems pretty solid so you may either not hedge it, or only hedge part of it.

[jmilacek]

Yeah, but this guy isn't looking for long term. How often does this actually happen? Hedging can guarantee winnings, whereas doing nothing he could lose all 335.

Guys,
I'm looking for hedging feedback regarding a bunch of open bets I have that all involve one pick of tonight's game. I will give 50 points to the post(s) that I deem most helpful, which must include risk/reward breakdown (i.e., do not just say "parlay ATL with the under"). I want #s.

Here's a summary of the open parlays/teasers, relevant to tonight's game:
NO +120: risking 40 to win 490
NO +3 risking: 30 to win 69
NO +10: risking 125 to win 307
NO/ATL over 43: risking 140 to win 245
TOTAL: risking 335 to win 1017

How would you hedge this?

I would straight up bet on ATL -2.5 -110 with a bet of 550 to win 500. Why?

Well, say Atlanta wins by 3-9. You then win 500 + 307, total of 807, minus losings of 70 (excluding O/U).

If Atlanta wins by 10+, you still win 305 (500 - 195) (excluding O/U).

If Atlanta loses, you still win 316 (866 - 550).

IF Atlanta wins but DOESN'T cover, you lose 234. So, even though this is the bet I would do (much more likely it wins than does not, IMO), beware of the risk involved.

Additionally, bet 160 SU on under 49.5 to win ~140. Why? Game goes over 49, you win 245 - 160 = 85. Game goes under 43, you win 245 - 140 = 105. Game goes 43+ to 49, you win 245 + 140 = 385. Best value here IMO.

In short: one straight-up bet for 550 on ATL -2.5. Another SU bet for 160 on UNDER 49.5.

BOL.

[Dex17]

Honestly, hedging is almost always -EV. You're better off riding it out. Sure, you could lose in this instance, but in the long term, you'll win.

Hedging by taking a presumably sharp line on the other side is just not profitable in the long term.

Good feedback, although JM is right... I'm not thinking of this as a play towards my long term prospects. This is a pretty unusual situation to have multiple outcomes in play.

[spargament]

Honestly, hedging is almost always -EV. You're better off riding it out. Sure, you could lose in this instance, but in the long term, you'll win.

Hedging by taking a presumably sharp line on the other side is just not profitable in the long term.

Unless the lines do the work for you by moving enough, all hedging accomplishes is playing outside of a system (if you have one) or also semi-chasing when hedging without sufficient LM.

Now if factors change in an event that causes you to re-evaluate a situation as a capper in terms of the actual outcome of the event in question, then I'm a believer in betting accordingly, and I don't see it as hedging..That though sans crazy injuries shouldn't happen daily.

[JosephPavs]

If you tried to get your bet back you would have to bet 335 + 33.5 = 368.5

Add that to what you are risking and you get a total risked = 368.5 + 335 = 703.5

So your options would be to (A) break even or (B) win 1017 - 703 = 314

So all in all you can hedge your bet to at min break even or win 314


The other option is of course to let it ride and bet risking 335 to win 1017


What sounds better to you get your money back and put it on 1 game this/next week or let it all ride tonight....

[Holdin Aces]

Just my 2 cents but the only hedge I would do is to take Atl ML for your initial investment and let the rest ride.

[Dex17]

I'm going to take ATL ML at -145 for 400 to win 276.

The payout for each outcome are as follows (excluding some outcomes, that I'm willing to risk):
NO wins, over 43 --- $617
ATL wins by less than 3, over 43 --- $857
ATL wins by between 3-9, over 43 --- $758
ATL wins my more than 10, over 43 --- $326

Thanks for everyone's insight.

[4TH AND STUPID]

I'm going to take ATL ML at -145 for 400 to win 276.

The payout for each outcome are as follows (excluding some outcomes, that I'm willing to risk):
NO wins, over 43 --- $617
ATL wins by less than 3, over 43 --- $857
ATL wins by between 3-9, over 43 --- $758
ATL wins my more than 10, over 43 --- $326

Thanks for everyone's insight.

st louis will murder seattle..charlie wisenhurst will start for seattle (i got my sources ) . he cant pass for over a 100 yards if his life depended on it and marshaun lynch cant run for over 80 yards if his life depended on it. parlay st louis with atlanta and you are a big winner if new orleans loses. im actually parlaying new orleans with st louis myself and am very confident about it. cheers

[Dex17]

ML dropped to -135, line still at 2x on Bookmaker. Anyone think it will move to 2? Maybe I can get -130 or better....

[Dex17]

st louis will murder seattle..charlie wisenhurst will start for seattle (i got my sources ) . he cant pass for over a 100 yards if his life depended on it and marshaun lynch cant run for over 80 yards if his life depended on it. parlay st louis with atlanta and you are a big winner if new orleans loses. im actually parlaying new orleans with seattle myself and am very confident about it. cheers

Probably a good pick but Bookmaker doesn't allow parlays with the next week's game until Tuesday AM. I'd probably lay off hedging with another game anyways. I thought about pulling in Philly -13x.

[jmilacek]

I'm going to take ATL ML at -145 for 400 to win 276.

The payout for each outcome are as follows (excluding some outcomes, that I'm willing to risk):
NO wins, over 43 --- $617
ATL wins by less than 3, over 43 --- $857
ATL wins by between 3-9, over 43 --- $758
ATL wins my more than 10, over 43 --- $326

Thanks for everyone's insight.

GL man.

[jmilacek]

Nice win. Still think you should've hedged the O/U, but that is probably hindsight bias.

[Dex17]

Nice win. Still think you should've hedged the O/U, but that is probably hindsight bias.

I actually did pretty crappy b/c the Over 43 portion didn't hit. Should have hedged it, but I figured Over 43 would be good and the chances of Over 50 were greater than Under 43. Oh well, I saved my arse with a 2nd half parlay with NO +x and Under 24x.

[Dex17]

Nice win. Still think you should've hedged the O/U, but that is probably hindsight bias.

BTW, I gave you 40 SBR points b/c I calculated that taking the ML for ATL would provide more advantageous outcomes than ATL -2x... thanks though!

[jmilacek]

BTW, I gave you 40 SBR points b/c I calculated that taking the ML for ATL would provide more advantageous outcomes than ATL -2x... thanks though!

Yeah, I saw that. Thank you.