I'm Giving Up on Gambling

[TouchdownMyPants]

the cowboys have been 5-0 ATS under Jason Garett. You really mean to tell me that you handicapped Rex Grossman, a guy who has failed miserably every single opportunity he has ever gotten in the NFL, scoring 30 points and 330 yards by himself??

as far as the Green Bay game goes, I don't know what the hell happened to the Patriots defense. They just decided not to show up in this game. The Packers offensive line has consistently been awful this year and they dominated this game with 150 rush yards. How the hell does that happen?

You sound like a whiny rookie gambler....you say you did your analysis but you missed the obvious: Wildcard was Rex and if the coach who watches him in practice everyday thinks he can run his west coast offense - then you should have noted that....as for the GB game: same deal and you said it in your thread: they play the last 4 games on defenses well etc - i saw trap especially with the points...

do yourself a favor - if it looks too good to be true - well then it usually is.....bet the other 13 games available next time

[rickbo528]

it's just too goddamn frustrating


Cowboys do a great job of containing the greatest player in the World (Mike Vick) last week but they can't slow down the almighty fukking Rex Grossman



Patriots have been blowing out everybody in sight, yet they struggle against a packers team ravaged with injuries starting a second fukking stringer



shit is too frustrating, I feel like I do great analysis yet continuously get fukked over by teams underperforming to their abilities

I feel your pain man. Been going through it myself. I don't see how anybody can consistantly make money doing this unless your are just plain lucky. I'm like you on Pats. They kick the stuffing out of people till I go big on them, then they struggle. Won't play them next week and they will win 50-0. Everybody says take underdogs. When I take them they play like dogs. I don't care what kind of knowledge you have or ability to crunch numbers. I don't care about the capping skills you have. It's just plain luck. I would rather be a lucky dumbass than a genius who is cursed. There are times when I think you could do just as well putting all the games on little pieces of paper and drawing them out of a hat.

[Dark Horse]

The main problem with the NFL is that there are very few games, but they get a lot of publicity. All the media attention draws people in. Then they bet on games they have no business betting on. If there are a lot of games, as in NBA and MLB, you can pick your spots more easily. I only bet the NFL for the first two months of the season now. It's a waste to spend 20-30 hours a week on 16 games, when there are many more NBA games with far softer lines that can be capped in 10 minutes per game.

[zoso11871]

I had some BRUTAL beats yesterday too my man.........Giants topping the chart.

Just take abreak, and clear the head man.

Good new - you probably won't take a beat that bad again this year.

[icancount2one]

Like the saying goes "its a marathon not a sprint"

A good capper 60-65% of the time? Damn you can own vegas at 65% of the time. If you can cap games at 60-65% please post your plays so I can have a share in all the hotels vegas has.

Respondng to the thread: Gambling is a grind. I do it day in and day out. You might have went 0-2 today or worse but you will rebound soon. It's always like that.

You really seem like you need some perspective. If winning at betting the NFL was as simple as looking at a few trends and what happened the last couple weeks, any moron could do it and the books wouldn't offer it.

Even if you are good and have an edge, bad streaks or even bad seasons will happen. If you're half as bright as you think you are, that shouldn't be that hard to get your head around.

[HiTMaNN]

It is funny cause you were on threads galore calling people idiots for not taking NE and that you are gods gift to capping because you KNEW NE was going to blow out GB. How could they not win by -14 right?!?!?!!? You lost the bet now man the **** up and bet another day or just leave the forum we got enough pussies here.

[Stevedore]

Told you.. If you would have done your research, you'd have know that the Pack's 5 losses going into this game have been by the huge total of 17 points! Rodgers not being in there affects the line by 11 points? Obviously not.. GB getting anything over 4 is $$$.

[Snowball]

diversification is key.
for example i also played Pats last night @ -13, and -7 in teaser
HOWEVER I had equal amount on them to score over 28.5
so not an ounce lost.

[cobracommander]

diversification is key.
for example i also played Pats last night @ -13, and -7 in teaser
HOWEVER I had equal amount on them to score over 28.5
so not an ounce lost.

That wasn't diversification, you got lucky. You should have won all three or none at all. More often than not if the Patriots score over 28.5 in bad weather against a second string quarterback they cover that spread.

[brettley]

the bears, steelers and jets are all defenses about the same level, if not even better, than Green Bay. The patriots beat those 3 teams by a combined score of 120-36 (average margin of 27 points)


2 of those 3 games were on the road and none of them were starting a mediocre second stringer with a bad offensive line and zero running game




the cowboys beat the lions by 17 points. The lions are about a country mile better than the Redskins


I mean, for the love of fukking god, REX GROSSMAN had a much better game against the cowboys than Mike Vick last week. What the fukk??

There are no locks... you don't take into account that a team may be due. If not to win, at least to keep a game close. Some of the worst teams in the league, like the lions, have a solid ats record.

I try to cap the line and look for value... ie vegas inflates a line as they know the public will hammer it. That puts me on the dog and the under alot, so I have to to train myself not to only bet against the public.

Conversely, your always on the favorite... favorites only hit 50% of the time long term.

Also, stop making "lock" threads, show some humility, and bet in a disciplined fashion. Its an instant jinx to post lock, guaranteed cover thread, etc.

BOL

[70kgman]

I would never put money on a double digit favorite in the NFL. Even when Detroit had that 0-16 season a couple years ago, they were still 7-1 ATS that year in games where they were getting 10+ points.