Proof that without greed you can make steady income sports betting!!

[F42294]

Oh, by they way, start listening to your brother-in-law a little more, he makes sense.

Also, the best way to make consistent money at sports betting is to be the book. 99.9% of betters lose money consistently.

[rydaphotoguy]

It is proven that these systems are doing 75-2 or 78-3 Example John Morrison system. The way they calculate a win is to do Bet A if Bet A loses you double Bet B and if that loses you double on Bet C. If one hits you count as a win and start back at Bet A. The thing is if you lose all three then it would be equivalent to the same amount as 8 wins so once people lose they usually quit with the system because it is a big loss. Or they lose a lot more because they get nervous and don't go through with third bet because amount is so high. I am saying if you follow a system like this and don't stray for any reason even if you lost two or three meaning All three bets then it would be the same as going 75-16. But who cares, just watch it happen or fail. You obviously don't understand what system is which is fine because I am done trying to explain it.

[ebbearsfb1]

morrison would make up lines so be careful with that...


and what you got 4 or 5 threads like this?



greed is doubling up

[rydaphotoguy]

Ok I will admit I am getting kinda scared now. haha

[SparJMU]

Ryda, please read this post as I am being 100% honest and hope to save you some cash.

You are absolutely right that an educated and disciplined sports bettor can make money every single year. I am not a professional, but I have close to a decades experience in sports betting at this point in my life and I supplement my annual income via sports betting. You are correct and your brother in law is wrong.

Having said that, what you are attempting here will fail. Your head is in the right place about discipline and greed, but this method is not the answer. When I was a beginner I tried things like this and I know many others who have done the same. The absolute, 100% fact, bottom line is that your system will fail. If you want to discuss it at all feel free to message me and we can talk about it.

[SparJMU]

Also, John Morrison is a scam artist who preys on beginners like you. He is no better than someone like Brandon Lang. They lie and manipulate to make themselves richer, but all of their clients go broke eventually. Research further and you will find plenty of documentation surrounding the John Morrison scams that were uncovered. He is a fraud.

[EXhoosier10]

Three losses would put be at $1100-$1200 and then I would be forced to take it as a loss and start again. So I still have money and if I go back to 5% of that and do it again then I would have to lose about 12 games in a row to lose money completeley and every win makes plays go back up. And to lose 12 games in a row would be as hard as hitting 12 team parlay. Just doesn't happen. So if I follow system and only lose 2 or 3 all year then I would go 76-16 or whatever it would be. I disagree again... I think it would take high amounts of discipline to stick to a system like this and not let it psych you out. It will lose a couple times no question about that but will it kill bankroll....no. Will it win a lot more than lose? Yes. We will see though. I don't see how it could fail. But I have been wrong before. Time will tell I guess

After that one 3 game losing streak, you need to win 12 "chases" in a row to get back to even. How is this any better than morrison? If you really want to chase, bet 1% and get 5 games to chase or .05% and get 6 games to chase to win. You will lose 3 in a row at some point.

Think about it this way. Even if you think you have a 60/40 edge in every game you bet, after 100 games, you'll lose 3 in a row, on average, 4 times. You can't chase with that large of a betting size.

[EXhoosier10]

The way you are picking, betting on random teams and picking games at random is less successful than Morrison's chase because he is focused on one team. It is harder for 1 team to lose 3 in a row in a certain situation than it is for 3 random teams to all lose because of team mentality and a team knowing they need to win. If you bet on 3 teams all coming off of wins, they may not "need" the wins and can have a let down.

[jagermeister1]

Think about it this way. Even if you think you have a 60/40 edge in every game you bet, after 100 games, you'll lose 3 in a row, on average, 4 times. You can't chase with that large of a betting size.

You are exactly right.

I'm bored, so I did some math, and I adjusted the numbers just a little to keep it simple. With this system, assuming his 3-game wager amount at 100, 200, and 400 (I'm not going to take into account that his wager amount will be 5% of the roll - dynamic values like that will make this impossible for me to calculate. Statistics class was a long time ago.) Given that his chances of hitting are 50/50 (maybe he's better than this - just humor me) and that odds are fixed at -110, this is the EXPECTED VALUE after 3 games:

8 outcomes possible: WWW, LLL, WWL, LLW...

The first amounts to 100 + 100 + 100 = 300
The second amounts to -110 - 220 - 440 = -770
The third amounts to 100 + 100 -110 = 90
And so on...

After 3 games, the EXPECTED VALUE is a LOSS of $180. Not very good.

Now, I'm sure some of you are thinking, "yeah, but he still has a chance to win still, in the instance of WLL." Well, let's play it out and see what happens.

At this point, he is down 230 (100 - 110 - 220). If he rolls the dice again, the only two outcomes, after 4 plays, are a win of 170 or a loss of 670. Given that this is roughly a 50/50 proposition, we can see that the expected value of this scenario is even worse.

Do the math yourself. I think it's pretty clear that this chase method is a loser.

And if you think you can pick better than 50/50, let's say 60/40, then you have no reason to use a system like this anyway. Just make flat bets a million times, and you'll become rich without ever having to gamble.

Good luck, gentlemen.

[jagermeister1]

For comparative purposes, if you were to only make flat bets, wagering 100 each time at -110 odds on a 50/50 proposition, the expected value after 3 games would be a loss of 15.

A loss of 15 is much better than a loss of 180.

[Pap45murF]

Lol. This thread is like a bunch of concerned friends trying to convince their buddy not to leap off the roof. The majority of us have done the chase system before when we were new and have seen the outcomes. I first tried it on an online casino roulette that let you spin without betting. I waited for 10 consecutive red or blacks in a row. Then started with a dollar bet and chased. I was trying to make 10 dollars an hour and use that as like my daily job. Had a bankroll of 200. I mean it's so unlikely that black or red would hit 18-20 times in a row right? Apparently not, wave that bankroll (roughly 300 when it happened) goodbye.

Then I figured my odds would be better chasing on football picks since it's an educated pick and not pure chance. Nope. GL to you, but regardless of how much you win and how good you feel, you will eventually have a bad run, and starting with 5% gives you 5% (1 bet), 10% (2 bets 15% commit), 20% (3 bets, 35% commit), 40% (4 bets, 75% commit), the rest... so after losing 4 bets, you no longer have enough left to win back to your original amount. And even the best of the best lose 4 bets in a row several times throughout the course of any season.

EDIT: damn you jager, you beat me to it

[casola]

So, what is your pick for today?

[ebbearsfb1]

foolish thread....


agree with the guys above... if you have time and discpline,, you can a living off sports betting however, you my friend look to clearly not have that

[R6MC]

time and discipline are necessary, sure,

but you need to understand sports betting

look into it, further, and further some more

[EXhoosier10]

so are you done with this thread?