Are The Falcons Line The Best Bet This Week ?

[Let's Bet]

Thoughts on this game.

[thebestthereis]

explain your thoughts on why this situation is so good for atlanta. throw out the seattle sucks bit and focus on all the situational aspects favoring atlanta.

[brahmabull117]

explain your thoughts on why this situation is so good for atlanta. throw out the seattle sucks bit and focus on all the situational aspects favoring atlanta.

you want an explanation on why this situation is so good for Atlanta while ignoring Atlanta's opponent?

is this a joke?


here is an explanation for you. The seahawks have lost 5 out of their last 7 games by an average of about 18 points. Atlanta is the best team in the league, Atlanta will win by 14-20 points

[Augustus]

The seattle will cover the numbers here.

[Let's Bet]

Yeah I know it's obvious that Atlanta will win this game, I was just wondering if everyone else thought the Falcons would cover.

[brahmabull117]

The seattle will cover the numbers here.

based on what??

they have gotten blown out by nearly every opponent they have faced recently

[Augustus]

based on what??

they have gotten blown out by nearly every opponent they have faced recently

Based on a League trend:

Home underdogs off a loss, giving up 38+ points when they are matched up against an opponent off a win by 11+ points, scoring 28+ points in that victory. This simple situation is 26-4 SU and 30-0 ATS since 1980.

[Augustus]

The Atlanta is in the 3rd game of a 3-game road trip.

[brahmabull117]

Based on a League trend:

Home underdogs off a loss, giving up 38+ points when they are matched up against an opponent off a win by 11+ points, scoring 28+ points in that victory. This simple situation is 26-4 SU and 30-0 ATS since 1980.

those computer trends are horseshit

there was a bunch of trends for the bears beating the patriots last week as well...before they got blown out by about 90 points at home

[MickChunky]

Matty Ice plays better at home, indoors, on turf. They have to travel to the west coast. Not saying don't bet it, there is just a lot more factors to this game other than good team vs. bad team.

[Waterstpub87]

Wouldn't risk money in this situation. Would lean towards Seattle with the points as long as Hasselbeck doesn't throw another 4 picks.

[Beachdude83]

The only thing that scares me is how Seattle is the most unpredictable team in the league right now.

[kidkonggolf]

My money is on Atlanta by 10. BOL

[Art Vandeleigh]

Both these teams will win their divisions this season and make the playoffs, it's just that Atlanta will be 14-2 and Seattle wil be 7-9. Strange season in the NFL.

[kiln]

Seattle for me, please.

[GunShard]

Seahawks are good @ home.
Falcons are worst when away, Matt Ryan undefeated @ home.
Seahawks have the points @ home.
Falcons traveling around 3000 miles from Atlanta.

Seahawks with the points looks like a good play.

[LetUsBet]

Falcons will cover there line

[billyboy73]

Falcons cover this line.

[Schu]

atl 11-2 saints 10-3 if saints beat balt at noon book a cover on atl in the late one

[dolphinvann]

Atlanta is fighting for home field throughout. I think the posters who are behind Seattle this week are trying to help you see that there are some reasons to pause in your passion about the line "only" being 6, 7.

[brahmabull117]

Seahawks are good @ home.
Falcons are worst when away, Matt Ryan undefeated @ home.
Seahawks have the points @ home.
Falcons traveling around 3000 miles from Atlanta.

Seahawks with the points looks like a good play.

seahawks are good at home??


seattle has lost their last 2 home games versus decent teams by a combined total score of 83-31

[ttrace35]

atl 11-2 saints 10-3 if saints beat balt at noon book a cover on atl in the late one

This is a great point. Only way I take Atl is if NO wins.

[vboyt]

Only way for Atlanta to not cover is Leon Washington.

[RTG4ATL&GT]

Some other stuff to consider

Atlanta is fighting for home field throughout. I think the posters who are behind Seattle this week are trying to help you see that there are some reasons to pause in your passion about the line "only" being 6, 7.

I took that to the bank last week vs Carolina, figured the Falcons would come out strong. Falcons were only 4 pt first-half favorite, so that was an easy play as they rolled to a 17-0 halftime score.

While I am a Falcons fan and am cautiously optimistic, this game worries me a bit. Though I have not seen much of Seattle this year, Matt Ryan can disappear in games for quarters at a time, especially on the road. Based on this and Seattle's porous run defense, my guess is the Falcons are going to try to get the run game going early on, sprinkle in just a little passing, and stick with that. Seattle probably knows this and is going to do everything they can to stop the run. And I doubt the Falcons will change much early on by passing until they have to, probably later in the game.

This is not like Falcons vs Carolina, where you can just put a bad team away early. Carolina had a stadium that was half empty, had nothing to play for, a Rookie QB in the game, etc., and that is not going to be the case vs Seattle.

Which makes me think... I keep hearing about how this is a third road trip in a row for the Falcons. Technically yes, but consider is that the last game vs Carolina was not a true 'road game' in the sense of what that usually entails for a road team... The Falcons did not get beat up in any way, coasted to the win, and did not spend much time traveling to and from Charlotte as it is a short 3 hr drive from ATL. Another 'X' factor is former Falcons player Lawyer Milloy knows Matt Ryan and the offense very well. I read 'he isn't bitter about his time in Atlanta coming to an end', but we all know how players rise up against their former teams.

Just some things to consider... I don't have a strong feeling on this game one way or another.

[Maxlock]

Although I don't have a play on this game I just want to share with you guys what I had written in my thread about this game, since someone asked me what I thought...

This game does have trap written all over it. From what I saw this line opened up at -6, but many books now have Seattle +7 -120. But for reliable line movement you'd have to look at Pinnacle's odds and they still have it 6. Pinnacle is one of the sharpest books out there who take in the most amount of $ per game. Last I saw 81% of the money was on Atlanta. I'd be weary betting a team thats getting the majority of the money with no line movement. Seattle is a much different team at home, the same could be said for Atlanta playing on the road. So for purposes of handicapping I'll focus on Seattles home performances and Atlantas road performances. Seattle at home: avgerages 23.6 points per game on offense and allow 22.1 points against. Now I think its important to take into account Charlie Whitehurst starting one of those games against the Giants where the got beat 41-7. So if you take away that game the stats shift dramatically. Seattle on offense @ home scores 26.8... Seattle on defense @ home allows 18.4. Very respecatable differential in numbers. Bottom line is Seattle is a complete different team at home. Now onto Atlantas performance away. Points scored on average: 23.7. Points allowed on average: 18.7. So now all these numbers have to be given their proper weight in terms how this will relate to this game. (I'm not giving these totals to bet the over/under) The bottom line is Seattle is a different team at home, while Atlanta has a slight decline in road performance.

Seattle will have WR Mike Williams and WR Ben Obomanu back for this game, both did not play last week. Seattle should have success through the air as Atlanta ranks 24th against the pass. The challenge for Seattle will be stopping one of the most balanced offenses in the league, with Matt Ryan, Tony Gonzalez Roddy White, and Michael Turner Atlanta has a very good offensive line that allows them Matt Ryan time in the pocket. They rank 4th in the league in terms of sacks allowed. (#1 being sacked the least amount)

All in all, this is Atlantas third straight road game. I dont think they will be focused for the "crappy" Seahawks. Not only does this look like a trap game in terms of no line movement at Pinnacle, staying at 6 throughout the week with over 80% of the money on Atl. But also the Falcons may also be in looking ahead to their key divional game at home on MNF vs the Saints. Seattle is currently in a must win situation as they continue battling for the division.

Myself, I won't have a play on this game, but i would lean with Seattle. If you got this game at +7, i like your chances even more. BOl in whatever you choose.