Let the discussions begin.. 
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Woops!Comment -
I like the Cardinals +3 against the Panthers this week.
I'm not really sure why the Cardinals are underdogs this week, although its most likely because they're starting a rookie QB (Skelton) on the road. But last time I checked Jimm Clausen is still starting for the Panthers, so as far as QBs go this is a dead heat. I did find a really interesting article about John Skelton.
I put a lot of stock in quarterbacks who are just "winners". I also respect the opinion of Mike Lombardi, who is quoted in this article. http://ktar.com/category/cardinals-a...John-Skelton?/
A quick side note: I'm well aware that the Cardinals blowout win over the Broncos last week was aided by special teams plays (Jay Feely's 55 yarder and his 5 yard TD run) which are always hard to predict/rely on, but I think the Panther's are about as bad as the Broncos are playing right now.
As for tonight, I'm putting a VERY small amount on the 49ers ML +400. I think its possible that the Chargers choke again (like they did against the Raiders) and +400 is just too appealing
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I totally forgot about Thursday night football- but I might agree. As I take a look at the lines now, I see that they opened as 10 point dogs, took a dip back to 9, then back up to +11 at some places, and holding there, around +10/+11.
As far as the money line goes (which is what I am more concerned about), it looks as if there were a little more on the side of the chargers at first, but slowly and surely, more money seems to be coming in on the 49ers ML (about a 70/30 split- 30 being the 49ers).. somewhat surprising though- either people like the value, or think the 49ers can pull the upset. I think both- but only if the chargers play poorly (or choke like you said).
I think my initial play for this thursday will be to put a small amount of the 49ers ML because of that value. More info to come as I continue to investigate..
lolComment -
just saw that theres a thread about it- im sure there are many but some good info here such as
GATES IS GAME TIME DECISION
FLOYD (WR) is also dealing with HAMSTRING.. but will likely play.Comment -
I like chargers w/ the pointsComment -
if cassel is out rams ml looks good. kc cant score without himComment -
i totally agree chronic. last week they couldn't run the ball because they're opponent stacked the line and dared brodie croyle to beat them. keep in mind though that the ML might not have great value if cassel doesn't play.
What do you all think of the Cardinals +3? Anyone check out that Skelton article?Comment -
it might be too early to post this but with so little on the 49ERS MONEY LINE, its just a cool game to see what happens with a bonus at the end if the upset occurs !!
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well it certainly didn't help that their best defensive linemen got ejected...but that was just an atrocious game. so glad i only put a tiny amount on it!
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well it wasnt too far from what we expected. It looked like they were gunna make a good run but looks like the -550 or whatever the ML was for the chargers reigned king there. I'll hafta start examining some more spreads for this upcoming sunday. Snugs, you still liking +3 Cardinals pick?Comment -
look for the posts by curious start from the top.. he explains some fundamentals to gambling
guy knows whats up
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i had san diego to win -9 as well as in a parlay with arizona over carolina +3, tenneesee over houston -1.5, and indy over jacksonviille -5
i think atlanta over seatlattle -6 should be the gimme for the week so feel free th throw arizona indy in a parlay, goodluck
and for some reason i dont see new england up yet on my betting site, but id go ballls out on neComment -
I know this isnt NFL related but for my own keepings..
WagerType:3 team teaser
Date: Team:
Dec 17 NBA [803] TOTAL o204½-110 (B+5) (MIAMI vrs NEW YORK)
Dec 17 NBA [804] NEW YORK +10-110 (B+5)
Dec 17 NBA [819] PHOENIX +12-110 (B+5)
Risking 7.50 SBR To Win 11.25 SBR
Ticket#: 515556
Lets see if this is junk.. or gold !!
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JunkComment -
junk
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junk for sureComment -
WagerType:2 team teaser
Date: Team:
Dec 19 NFL [316] TOTAL u53-110 (B+6) (PHILADELPHIA vrs NY GIANTS)
Dec 19 NFL [318] TOTAL u50½-110 (B+6) (WASHINGTON vrs DALLAS)
Risking 6.00 SBR To Win 5.45 SBR
Ticket#: 519007
I'll see if my teaser junk continues. Playing these two spreads in a tease on the under (quick last minute bet for some action). Public money looks to be surrounding more of the OVER for the philly game.. I think the hype for this game is causing a little too much pressure on the over.. as for the red skins and dallas, I hope the redskins continue to not show up, and I hope the "i dont care about football" dallas comes out to play. Lets see how it does. BOL everybody with your plays.
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Also- anybody got anything good for the later games? I need action!
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Trash again. Two highscoring events. Trying another teaser (they are addicting and probably for good reason..)
WagerType:2 team teaser
Date: Team:
Dec 19 NFL [325] NY JETS +10½-110 (B+7)
Dec 19 NFL [330] NEW ENGLAND -7-115 (B+7)
Risking 7.00 SBR To Win 5.38 SBR
Ticket#: 519253
or you probably should just do the opposite BOL all!
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Rough go on the Cards +3
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Pretty sure I should've just followed RJ and gone with the falcons. Is it me or does the AFC south have the most ridiculous covers so far this season?
1. Colts 34, Jaguars 24: Colt's Onside touchdown to go up by 10 (spread -5 colts)
2. Colts 30, Titans 28: Jeff Fisher randomly scoring a touchdown with 0 on the clock instead of trying to win the game (spread +3 titans)
3. Jagurs 31, Texans 24: Last second hail mary (can't remember the spread, but Jags covered)
4. Ravens 34, Texans 28: Pick six in OT (Ravens -3)
Anyhoo, who do you all like tonight?Comment -
Lets take a good look at tonight- it seems to be a great matchup.
Ive noticed that the opening line at most places was around +9 Minnesota. That has come down, slowly and somewhat steadily, all the way to +7.5. Now with that being said, the trend should indicate the public betting steadily on Minnesota as the game approaches. However, if we take a look at where all the money is at, I see a 40/60 split, with the majority of the money on the Bears. If the public seem to be on the Bears, why isnt the line getting less jucier for the Vikings? This question gives some insight.
I am going to put a small play on Vikings +7.5. I know some of the injuries may look bad on paper for the Vikings, but Peterson, although questionable for tonight's game, IS expected to play. Harvin (WR) says he will "definitely" be playing and Farve says if he is feeling "OK" he will play as well, as they have upgraded him to Questionable for tonight's matchup.
I think the Vikings will be willing to put forth a great effort in a neutral stadium on prime time TV. Obviously, take +7.5 and not +7, that hook may become important if the matchup gets tight (+8 to +9 are great if u got it).
In addition, another fun fact for tonight's game- no alcohol. When you are sipping on your beer watching tonight, just know that most everybody in that stadium cant. (Hopefully they got smashed before they got in.) Best of luck tonight, everybody.
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I posted this on another thread:
"Second snow game in a row for Chicago. We all saw how that panned out for them last week
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Little Joe Webb info:
"Working out as a wide receiver at UAB pro day, Webb turned in numbers that would have bested the cream of the rookie crop at the combine. His vertical jump of 42.5 inches was better than any turned in by a receiver in Indy. His long jump of 11 feet, 5.5 inches also would have led the way.
And Webb's bench press—21 reps at 225 pounds—was the best at his position. Only one other receiver managed 20 reps at the same weight, according to UAB athletic department. Webb also ran the 40 yard dash in a fast 4.43 seconds""
Too bad Webb might not even start, and we may be stuck with old man Favre in freezing temperature.
I already locked in a parlay of Vikings +7.5 and the over....And literally as I was typing that I see that Adrian Peterson is not going to play...Dear God....Comment -
What a miserable gambling moment. Favre starting, AP not starting...UGH.
Anyhoo back on the horse!
I just teased Indy +3 over Oakland with Over 37.5 Seahawks/Bucs. Seahawks have been hitting the over, and I think Indy wins this game outright.Comment -
Looking forward to seeing that Giants/Packers game spread. Anyone have a prediction of what the spread might be?
I'd say Green Bay -3 (depends if Rodgers or Flynn starts).Comment -
Favre had a QB rating of 99.1 for the game. Webb... 38.8. Too bad Webb didn't play the entire game, it could have been an even bigger blown out.I posted this on another thread:
"Second snow game in a row for Chicago. We all saw how that panned out for them last week.
Little Joe Webb info:
"Working out as a wide receiver at UAB pro day, Webb turned in numbers that would have bested the cream of the rookie crop at the combine. His vertical jump of 42.5 inches was better than any turned in by a receiver in Indy. His long jump of 11 feet, 5.5 inches also would have led the way.
And Webb's bench press—21 reps at 225 pounds—was the best at his position. Only one other receiver managed 20 reps at the same weight, according to UAB athletic department. Webb also ran the 40 yard dash in a fast 4.43 seconds""
Too bad Webb might not even start, and we may be stuck with old man Favre in freezing temperature.
I already locked in a parlay of Vikings +7.5 and the over....And literally as I was typing that I see that Adrian Peterson is not going to play...Dear God....
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i thought the vikes would pound the ball with peterson and let webb huck it down field on play action or designed rollouts... unfortunately he looked worse than tavaris jackson!
oh well!
i might take the vikes this week. webb's got a whole week to practice this time...
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furthermore, i just lost a few points gambling in the casino section playing craps. how embarassing.
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Snugs, read some words from the wise on gambling.. just another great write-up about what to take into account when betting on a game.
Originally Posted by KGB
1st post on SBR. Max being following u for a while. Thanks for your hard work and excellent write-ups. With you on the Ravens game have some concerns with the Steelers. Carolina is a bad team yes, but they are 4-1 in the last 5 as a dog of more than 10.5 pts, steelers on the other hand are 1-4 in the last 5 as a favorite of more than 10.5 pts. I've been struggling with this question for a while, do any of these streaks or statistics matter, or is it strictly on the skill level? When you cap a game what do u weigh most streaks, statistics, or players at the skill positions? Thanks again and keep up the good work.
The hard part about capping games is figuring about HOW MUCH you should weigh certain things such as: stats, records, trends, revenge factor, home field advantage, vegas factor, divisional game or non divisional, must win situations, player match-ups, among other psychological factors that may play into the outcome of the game.
It really comes down to the game at hand. For example if you're capping a divisional game and you want to use trends as one of your tools that will go into your final decision making then you could look at things like 1) a coaches record against divisional opponents their second time around playing them. Some coaches do an excellent job of motivating their team for divisional games. The thing with trends that I personally don't like therefore don't put much stock in them is that many trends are grouped into several seasons. Well three years from now there's a lot of different players on that team, so you can argue that the trends aren't reliable.
To answer your question when I cap games I put the most weight on player matchups coupled with the fact that I try and figure out motivational factors. It's pretty clear If a team goes into a game disinterested or nonchalant, then they'll get demolished. So you have to determine what a team has to play for? Now, just because a team is out of the playoff race does not mean they'll quit on the season. As far as match-ups go I look at how a team's offensive line match up against the the other teams defensive line, WR's vs. corners, running game vs run stop, and so on.
As far as the Steelers go and their trend of 1-4 ATS when favored by more than 10.5 points I don't put much stock into that simply because the overall strenght of this Steelers team is way more than the Panthers can handle. As I wrote in the Steelers-Panthers write up, the Steelers rank towards the very top in QB pressure vs Carolina who are one of the worst in Qb protection. The Panthers will want to run the ball, but with what success? The Steelers give up 3.0 yards per carry. This will result in third and longs for the Panthers. Bad news for them as the Steelers are one of the best in not allowing 3rd down conversions.
As far as trends go, although its very limited here's one this season that I'm liking which favors the Steelers:
Pittsburgh is coming off its 4th defeat of the season at the hands of the Jets. Here's how the Steelers have responded following their three previous defeats:
Week 4 lost to Baltimore (week 5 was a bye..)
Week 6 they beat Cleveland 28-10
Week 8 lost to New Orleans
Week 9 they beat Cincinnati 27-21 (most of Cincinnati points were in the 4th quarter in desperation mode)
Week 10 lost to new England
Week 11 they beat Oakland 35-3
Week 15 lose to NYJ
Week 16 ???
All in all I'm pretty confident with the Steelers -14 tonight.Comment -
Watchu all think..
Pats ML -380 (x4).... At best the bills may be able to keep it closer than the public thinks (aka, maybe why vegas is making it more enticing to take pats as their line keeps sliding down. I say dont bet the spread, but if you can lay the ML, do it.
Chargers 7.5 (x1).... this line has been bouncing around like crazy, If you can get it this low now, I'd say go for it just based on line movement.
Titans ML +165 (x1).... taking a look at some of the lower dogs this week, (titans, detroit, giants) I think the titans pull it off in kansas city. We've seen kansas city drop the ball plenty of times. I think this game in particular is going to be a scrappy one- and I'll take the value here.
Ravens -210 (x2)... this game makes me nervous only because i dont think the value is here but i still wanna make the bet. Ravens lost to the browns earlier in the season, and the browns just lost back to back heartbreakers to the bills and to the bengals. I think the ravens have a little bit going for them and I think they squeeze it out in the end. I'd stay away from the -3.5/-4 spread, even though line movement is indicating a favored ravens team.
Another little tidbit.. I think the colts win the game straightup against this oakland team. Payton needs to pull it together in a big way, and I think it happens with some momentum against the raiders! (colts +3 at EV or better)
Any input is appreciated, even if it's bashing the picks. I need input !! BOL everybody on their plays.
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Ravens lost to bengals. they beat the browns. love the picks, tho i think kc beats titans in kc.Comment -
Yes, youre right my bad. Thanks for the correction. My picks are coming through pretty ok. We'll see how it all ends up. BOL !
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not bad squid! you hit your bets 3-2. i won my tease of the seattle over and the colts plus 3. (currently sitting pretty in centsports land
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as for tomorrow i'm liking the falcons -3, or their moneyline. the falcons have a legitamate shot to go 14-2 this year, and i think they can stun the brees and the saints tonight. i'll post more about it after i do more research. i got an xbox for christmas so havent done anything but play it since...
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hard to focus on videogames/sports betting. although i still think the falcons should've won that game.
the eagles vikings over/under is set to 42.5, i'd love the under but i'm worried vick will go OFF on the vikings. any thoughts?Comment
