Some of You Guys Need a Serious Reality Check

[brahmabull117]

you realize line movements and vegas have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with what happens on the field right??? you realize a bunch of football players go out there and determine the game based on matchups, intensity, heart etc..??


the amount of times I read crap like "It's a TARP!!!11!!", "Vegas is out to screw us all out of our money !!11!!" on this site is just absolutely ridiculous


bet on what you think will happen, stop paying attention to what other bettors or vegas are doing

[your pixel army]

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

If thats what you want to believe then so be it.

One day you'll realize theres more to it

[Mikail]

If it was only that simple. See there is this thing called money. Money makes things happen that normally wouldn't happen. Get my drift?

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

If you truly think that the NFL puts out a single game on a Thursday night and Vegas just happens to put out a spread between the 2 teams and people wager on it (money, kids, organs etc.) and you TRULY think there is nothing more to it then just 2 teams, offense and defense and special teams are out there playing there "hearts" out and Vegas doesn't have a say...then you need a reality check.

I'm sorry, but there is something more to it. I don't have the answer, Mikail doesn't have the answer. No one does but theres more to it. Thats all I'm saying

[BettingWizard]

every single time people are on the lopsided side, its always "the field will decide the bet"

[Fleeben]

What you fail to realize is the line is a reflection of a combination of things, one of which is capping the game in greater detail than you could ever hope to do. So when a line is telling you something it's best to listen.

Some games this year where the line indicated that an upset was in the works:

Week 1 Hou +2 @ Indy
Week 9 NE @ Cle
Week 12 Pitt @ Buf +6

Those are all games where the public was all over the favorite and yet in every one the line was a bit short and indicated the dog would play a close game. In each case the dog won. There are more examples I could list, and it happens even more in college ball, but the line tells the smart bettor a lot about the game.

[BernardMadoff]

What you fail to realize is the line is a reflection of a combination of things, one of which is capping the game in greater detail than you could ever hope to do. So when a line is telling you something it's best to listen.

Some games this year where the line indicated that an upset was in the works:

Week 1 Hou +2 @ Indy
Week 9 NE @ Cle
Week 12 Pitt @ Buf +6

Those are all games where the public was all over the favorite and yet in every one the line was a bit short and indicated the dog would play a close game. In each case the dog won. There are more examples I could list, and it happens even more in college ball, but the line tells the smart bettor a lot about the game.

Thats only 3 out of hundreds of games.

[Plu$Money]

Betting on what u think is suppose to happen is what Vegas wants u to do.. Sure they will give certain games away to keep people coming back, but in the end they know more than u do and they set the line the way they do for a reason.. I'd rather side with Vegas rather than what I "think" should happen..

[broadway6]

you realize line movements and vegas have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with what happens on the field right??? you realize a bunch of football players go out there and determine the game based on matchups, intensity, heart etc..??


the amount of times I read crap like "It's a TARP!!!11!!", "Vegas is out to screw us all out of our money !!11!!" on this site is just absolutely ridiculous


bet on what you think will happen, stop paying attention to what other bettors or vegas are doing

i used to think like you...i'm sorry to tell you, but you're wrong. You can follow line movement, beat pinny, and make a lot more money than just bet who you think will win. But to each there own. Good luck sir.

[falconticket]

What's a tarp? Is that where the dog covers?

[brahmabull117]

If thats what you want to believe then so be it.

One day you'll realize theres more to it

you sound like those conspiracy theorists who believe 9/11 was done by the government

[Fleeben]

Thats only 3 out of hundreds of games.

No system works for every game .....the other part about being profitable is picking your spots and not forcing it.

[BernardMadoff]

you sound like those conspiracy theorists who believe 9/11 was done by the government

Prove it wasnt.

[BookiesBernanke]

you sound like those conspiracy theorists who believe 9/11 was done by the government

If Vegas put a bet out on that you would sh*t your pants if you saw how much money came in on "the conspiracy theorists" side

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

you sound like those conspiracy theorists who believe 9/11 was done by the government

I'm no conspiracy theorists, I'm just telling the truth you fool

[Flexin]

If its as easy as being on the same side as Vegas then that means there are people with a perfect record right?

James

[RichDoggP]

What you fail to realize is the line is a reflection of a combination of things, one of which is capping the game in greater detail than you could ever hope to do. So when a line is telling you something it's best to listen.

Some games this year where the line indicated that an upset was in the works:

Week 1 Hou +2 @ Indy
Week 9 NE @ Cle
Week 12 Pitt @ Buf +6

Those are all games where the public was all over the favorite and yet in every one the line was a bit short and indicated the dog would play a close game. In each case the dog won. There are more examples I could list, and it happens even more in college ball, but the line tells the smart bettor a lot about the game.

I would just like to point out that week 12, the Steelers won the game 19-16. The Bills covered, but they didn't win.

That's three carefully selected games out of the entire season (and only two that support your hypothesis). Look at how many games where the line indicated an upset and see how many actually followed with an upset. I'm sure it won't be 100%. Vegas is smart but they're not perfect and they're not going to be right 100% of the time.

[Stompin_Tom]

exactly! whatever side the money is on has absolutely no effect on what the players do!


...it only affects the refs

[ManBearPig]

You guys do realize this is the NFL where anything can happen. I could see people talking their shit after the game but while the game is going anything can happen...14 pts isn't shit and can be made up. I don't care how crappy the Titans are or are perceived to be.

Yes, line movement follows the money but where does the money come from. People are making large bets on teams for a reason right? Do wiseguys really make 100k bet on a game because they like the rushing defense of a team...I don't care what anyone says but I don't think so.

[falconticket]

Brahmabullnuts has proven to be the dumbest poster on the forum this month. Congats

[BettingWizard]

[Blazermaniac]

A reference to a fix is like watching a play....how everything unfolds into place....one act after another. When you can see this when watching a game....then you my friend have found it. Tonight's game was exactly that.....

[Jimb0311]

What you fail to realize is the line is a reflection of a combination of things, one of which is capping the game in greater detail than you could ever hope to do. So when a line is telling you something it's best to listen.

Some games this year where the line indicated that an upset was in the works:

Week 1 Hou +2 @ Indy
Week 9 NE @ Cle
Week 12 Pitt @ Buf +6

Those are all games where the public was all over the favorite and yet in every one the line was a bit short and indicated the dog would play a close game. In each case the dog won. There are more examples I could list, and it happens even more in college ball, but the line tells the smart bettor a lot about the game.

All of these games I took the Favs. Ended up losing all of them. That's when I knew something wasn't right. So I started to do search and found this site. And now I know about one sided wages and which games are fishy. I now know when to fade the public for the last 2 weeks and have picked my games more carefully. And with more success. I am more than convinced that Vegas has something to do with it.

[dan213]

ddct...........lol.

[No coincidences]

You dug your own grave by starting this thread.

This is the oddsmakers' profession. Think about it. They know what they're doing, and so do the shops you bet at.

[MikeZaW]

you realize line movements and vegas have absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with what happens on the field right??? you realize a bunch of football players go out there and determine the game based on matchups, intensity, heart etc..??


the amount of times I read crap like "It's a TARP!!!11!!", "Vegas is out to screw us all out of our money !!11!!" on this site is just absolutely ridiculous


bet on what you think will happen, stop paying attention to what other bettors or vegas are doing

lol .... he said tarp.

In all seriousness ... Vegas does have an influence on some games not all but some. Tonight could have been one of them. Remember when the refs asked Jeff Fisher to use timeouts for commercial purposes on Monday Night vs Jacksonville this year?

[Dark Horse]

the amount of times I read crap like "It's a TARP!!!"

Geeee-sus.

It's not a field!

It's a f*cking tarp...

[TheSchafe]

Prove it wasnt.

Shouldn't the conspiracy theorists be proving it?

[madrabbit]

some games are. Look at cricket for example.

[ImmortalKrop]

Brahmabullnuts has proven to be the dumbest poster on the forum this month. Congats