Colts by 3

LostBankroll · 12-09-10, 01:32 AM

Makes sense. I think people who see lines like this think "TRAP" when in reality the line is exactly where it should be. I think the NBA is easier to spot traps than the NFL. I personaly cant see the Colts losing. But honestly who the **** really knows.

bretb27 · 12-09-10, 01:33 AM

this game won't be decided by a fg

vyomguy · 12-09-10, 01:42 AM

It wont be decided by a FG...either colts win big...or loose straight up.

borednaz · 12-09-10, 10:07 AM

I can actually see that being pretty accurate score as long the titans show up to play. A Short week, no show during sunday. IDK. Of course they could of just been on a unofficial bye week no one knew of the last 3 games. Given the titans attitudes of superiority that might just be the case LOL.

All kidding aside colts should win but this is the most f'd up year we've seen in a long time.

Donkwin47 · 12-09-10, 01:18 PM

Nice post, I think you may be on to something. Obviously hard to pin a game to an exact margin, but I think it has a great chance of ending with the Colts as 3 point victors.

D3 Mighty Ducks · 12-09-10, 01:21 PM

This game won't even be close.

JR007 · 12-09-10, 01:41 PM

vegas books are at 4

firehoyt · 12-09-10, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by vyomguy

It wont be decided by a FG...either colts win big...or loose straight up.

I agree

k22t · 12-09-10, 04:21 PM

In all honesty.. this line isn't as off as people think it is. Indy is playing its worst football of the season and so are the
Titans. Making the Colts a 4 point favorite on the road would be the exact same thing as making them a 7 point favorite at home. Would you think that is a crazy line? I mean the Titans still have Chris Johnson who granted isn't playing as well as he is supposed to but it is still a road divisional game for the Colts. I personally think Colts roll the Titans 31-14, Manning isn't going to be forcing any balls like he has the past 3 weeks and I just don't see the Titans wideouts and secondary making enough play to keep up or stop the Colts. Peyton knows there is no shot of getting into the playoffs through the wildcard, they need to win the division. Jacksonville could have rung on 50 on the Titans D last week, I expect Peyton and the Colts to do the same. I know it seems like a square play but even the public has to hit some times. Take the Colts and let's cash this ticket.

bretb27 · 12-09-10, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by k22t

In all honesty.. this line isn't as off as people think it is. Indy is playing its worst football of the season and so are the
Titans. Making the Colts a 4 point favorite on the road would be the exact same thing as making them a 7 point favorite at home. Would you think that is a crazy line? I mean the Titans still have Chris Johnson who granted isn't playing as well as he is supposed to but it is still a road divisional game for the Colts. I personally think Colts roll the Titans 31-14, Manning isn't going to be forcing any balls like he has the past 3 weeks and I just don't see the Titans wideouts and secondary making enough play to keep up or stop the Colts. Peyton knows there is no shot of getting into the playoffs through the wildcard, they need to win the division. Jacksonville could have rung on 50 on the Titans D last week, I expect Peyton and the Colts to do the same. I know it seems like a square play but even the public has to hit some times. Take the Colts and let's cash this ticket.

i like the colts here as well, in a blowout fashion, but you said the colts - 3 was an early xmas present... wouldn't that mean that you yourself thinks this line is too low... but in you're writeup you said the line is right where it needs to be? Vegas didn't move this line until now, i think they thought tenn was the smart play until they realized how much was actually at stake on the colts. Now you're seeing that line up to 3.5 and 4 in some places. Late money is usually the smart money... at least that's what a wise man once told me.

Let's Bet · 12-09-10, 05:01 PM

i WENT ML of -5 on the colts

k22t · 12-09-10, 05:03 PM

Originally posted by bretb27

i like the colts here as well, in a blowout fashion, but you said the colts - 3 was an early xmas present... wouldn't that mean that you yourself thinks this line is too low... but in you're writeup you said the line is right where it needs to be? Vegas didn't move this line until now, i think they thought tenn was the smart play until they realized how much was actually at stake on the colts. Now you're seeing that line up to 3.5 and 4 in some places. Late money is usually the smart money... at least that's what a wise man once told me.

The line is where it needs at -3/-4. You can't make the Colts a -6/7 point favorite in this situation, they haven't been playing like one.. I personally believe the Colts will blow the Titans out. Too much at stake for them, Titans aren't playing their best football and it will show tonight.

BernardMadoff · 12-09-10, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Sharps who locked it in at 2.5 will get paid -- squares who jump on the bandwagon late at 4 get burned.

Pinny still hanging onto the 3, while it's 4 at SIA. My guess is it'll be 4 by kickoff at all of the recreational books, and even 4.5 in some spots, with Pinny, The Greek, etc. sitting at 3 or 3.5.

Colts 23, Titans 20.

Coin, you give the oddsmaker too much credit, you really should stop thinking he knows the outcome of a game when he or whoever comes up with the number doesnt. I can give you stats on how many times the spread was beat by 14 pts over the last 15 years and its a big percentage, but he's made to look like god when it hits or is close. His number isnt that important.

Sunde91 · 12-09-10, 05:08 PM

More genius from SBR's #1 pseudo sharp.

So just to be clear, Colts win by 3 because "sharps" were on -2.5 and you think it will be -4 by game, so you just think it will be all nice and convenient for it to play out perfectly in a 3 point game? Sir, simply brilliant.

Guy takes the most simplistic observations and turns it into the dumbest shit you've ever read in your life, shit he thinks is uniquely profound.

Notice too how he's speaking AT you like this WILL happen with a degree of certainty, when it's something he just pulled out of his ass so he could give his ego a stroke on the internetz.

Sir, troll much?

Cappinpicks · 12-09-10, 05:31 PM

I would bet a billion dollars No Coin is dead wrong. No offense.

Pdog · 12-09-10, 05:46 PM

this game will definitely not be decided by a field goal.

kidkonggolf · 12-09-10, 05:49 PM

I'm On Board -3. Go Colts...BOL

antifoil · 12-09-10, 05:52 PM

what if c.j. wins this game by himself?

Brian891 · 12-09-10, 05:55 PM

As long as peyton doesnt continue his trend of pick sixes, i dont see how colts lose. Have to believe he will play very well, and the defense really has been good enough to win if it wasnt for manning's int charity. Im bankin on peyton playin well today. Thats the only question. If he throws 4 picks again, colts lose. If he plays like his damn season is on the line, and all they have to do is beat the jags and kerry collins twice they prob win the division, then i win some dough. we will see i guess.

BernardMadoff · 12-09-10, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by antifoil

what if c.j. wins this game by himself?

There hasnt been a sighting in weeks.

No coincidences · 12-09-10, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by Sunde91

More genius from SBR's #1 pseudo sharp.

So just to be clear, Colts win by 3 because "sharps" were on -2.5 and you think it will be -4 by game, so you just think it will be all nice and convenient for it to play out perfectly in a 3 point game? Sir, simply brilliant.

Guy takes the most simplistic observations and turns it into the dumbest shit you've ever read in your life, shit he thinks is uniquely profound.

Notice too how he's speaking AT you like this WILL happen with a degree of certainty, when it's something he just pulled out of his ass so he could give his ego a stroke on the internetz.

Sir, troll much?

There's an ignore function. Use it.

Obsess much?

antifoil · 12-09-10, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

There hasnt been a sighting in weeks.

i guess you are right. he sure misses vince young

Sunde91 · 12-09-10, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

There's an ignore function. Use it.

Obsess much?

I've responded to a total of about 3 out of your 1,000 idiot threads like these.

I just want to know if you're trolling or not. I don't know how else one could be so detached and pretentious.

No coincidences · 12-09-10, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by Sunde91

I've responded to a total of about 3 out of your 1,000 idiot threads like these.

I just want to know if you're trolling or not. I don't know how else one could be so detached and pretentious.

Thanks for classing up the joint as usual, Sunde! It's my opinion. Nothing more, nothing less.

If you don't like it, fade it. Easy.

vyomguy · 12-09-10, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by vyomguy

It wont be decided by a FG...either colts win big...or loose straight up.

No coincidences · 12-10-10, 12:39 AM

I was close. Instead of the majority of Colts backers losing, they all lost.

Look, Pinny and The Greek didn't move off the 3 for a reason. You could get Tennessee at 5 at SIA, which I did. It isn't a fool-proof plan, but the closest thing you'll find to a loophole in gambling is signing up at a recreational/public book and going with a sharp book's lean.

Some say I give oddsmakers too much credit. Yeah, it's only their business. Lines are sharp as shit. Period. NFL lines are the sharpest, and December NFL lines -- well, you're just not going to beat them very often. Instead of assuming the Colts were a gift tonight, you should've realized receiving so many hints from the sharp books was the true gift.

But it was just a fluke beat, right?

No coincidences · 12-10-10, 12:41 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Pinny still hanging onto the 3, while it's 4 at SIA. My guess is it'll be 4 by kickoff at all of the recreational books, and even 4.5 in some spots, with Pinny, The Greek, etc. sitting at 3 or 3.5.

bretb27 · 12-10-10, 02:09 AM

hate to disagree with you coin, but yes, it was just a fluke beat. After that first half everyone would have bet their lives the Colts would put it in the end zone at least one more time in that second half, and that's all that was needed for the cover. Unless you're the type that believes in "fixes" than you really can't say you expected that outcome.