Is this a profitable middle?

[terpkeg]

Detroit +7.5 -120
New England -6.5 -110

At first glance, the obvious answer was no if 7 has a push frequency of 6%.

However, if I am already taking Detroit b/c I think they are +Ev at 7.5, this would change things, if they are in fact +Ev.

385 to win 320 on Det
220 to win 200 on NE

So I have 120/100 on Det and
65/420 on the 7. However, I ony lose the 65 if NE covers the 7.5. If this was a 50/50 proposition, it would be more accurate to say:

I will lose 65, 50% of the time = 32.5
or win 420, 6% of time = 25.2

However, if I am only losing 65, say 35% = 22.75. Then it would be profitable to shoot for the middle, right?

But if I had that much of an edge at +7.5, i guess I should just play the 7.5 larger. However, that would create an uncomfortabe level of risk due to the size of my bankroll.

Any thought here?

[BernardMadoff]

Why not pick a side its more profitable.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Your over thinking this way to much. Settle down, enjoy your thanksgiving and forget about trying to get a middle. Pick a side or just lay off the game

[d2bets]

Way too much juice.

[terpkeg]

Your over thinking this way to much. Settle down, enjoy your thanksgiving and forget about trying to get a middle. Pick a side or just lay off the game

Im on Detroit +7.5 -120

I also played under 51 -110

I am confortable with my level of risk and it wont affect my thanksgiving.

I am just trying to think about long term profitability. Another reason why I am shooting for the middle as well as that my NE -6.5 bet is at a book where I have been trapped in a rollover requirement for about 6 months. I learned a lesson there. But, I try to take stances on games and get money out of that book in favor of one where I can freely move funds.