C-Gold's Thanksgiving day SUCKER BET

[C-Gold]

Greetings and happy Thanksgiving. If you've followed my sucker bets they've been very successful. The sucker bet is when a game looks too easy but in fact the other side wins. On Thanksgiving my pick is the

Detroit Lions +7

Tom Brady
#1 offense in the league
Coach Bellicheck
The Patriots just got done beating the Colts and Steelers
The Lions are 2-8
Shaun Hill
Seems like an easy win for the Patriots right??? Maybe they score 3 early touchdowns and sit on their lead?


Here are some other things to consider
NE is 5-5 vs an artificial 7 poinst spread
Detroit would be 7-3 if they received 7 points in every game
Detroit is MUCH better at home
New England is worse on the road... got beat bad by the Browns a few weeks ago
Short week of practice favors the home team
Brady already missed practice
Potential emotional let down after a big win with the Colts ( NE using their best plays)

New England produces 339 yards on offense per game
Detroit produces 336 yards on offense per game
( New England outgains Detroit by only 3 ypg)

New England gives up 398 yards per game on defense
Detroit gives up 342 yards per game on defense
(Detroit gives up 56 less yards per game)

but Detroit plays in a dome and NE plays on grass. In reality Detroits offense is probably not as good as those stats suggest, but their defense is better. I've watched their games and Suh has been a beast... So who'se going to block him? Stephen Neal is questionable for this game, big underrated injury in my opinion. I see the Lions getting a push up front and being up in Brady's grill. I see the Lions "coming out" and surprising people with this pass rush.

Another injury I don't like for NE is kicker Gostkowski. Not only is he a good FG kicker, but he has maybe the strongest leg in the league. That's going to mean more kick returns and better field position for the Lions.

Everybody is ready to crown the patriots right?They just beat Indy and Pitt right? They needed +3 turnovers to beat the Colts and they won by 3 points. What happens if the Lions protect the ball?

Who is going to cover Calvin Johnson? The Patriots defense has looked awful at times and they have injuries to their D-Line with Mike Wright a solid starter and Myron Pryor.

The public is pouring in on the Pats. They are the #1 bet on team by percentages. Instead of looking at the gambling public, lets look at Yahoo pick'em contest for non gamblers.

97% on Patriots ( 7 point spread)
96% on Pittsburgh ( 6.5 spread)
95% on Cleveland ( 10 point spread)
95% on Jets ( 9 point spread)
92% on Baltimore ( 8 point spread)
91% on Giants ( 7.5 spread)

The books knew they were going to have tremendous action on this TV game and after a bad week they didn't seem to care. I'm confident the Lions will win ATS and I think they have a better than you think shot at winning this game outright to kill all the teasers out there.

Lions +7
and I actually see 2 sucker bets this week so come back for more.

[bandit bettor]

very interesting points but your not factoring in that those stats are jaded cause buy far new england has played tuffer teams...putting up 39 points on pitt and 31 on the colts isnt to shabby.. and look at the lions last two games putting up a mere 12 points up against buffalo and 19 against dallas while allowing dallas with a back up qb to throw up a 39 spot.. I see your points but i see new england putting up 34-40 in this game and i cant see that not being enough to cover.... detroit has been getting worse while new england has gotten better beating tuffer competition..

[C-Gold]

New England coming off 2 emotional highs...
31 vs Indy defense with the help of 3 turnovers ( not super impressive IMO)
39 @ Pitt which is very impressive IMO

but what about scoring 14 points @ Cleveland?????????????

Detroit didn't have a great game in Dallas or Buffalo true, but they are a much better home team and both of those games were on the road. Detroit is sick of being a door mat, and I believe they will want to show the country they are headed in the right direction. Shaun Hill has had 300 yard games and has quietly been doing alright. The Patriots can't cover Calving Johnson, they got lit up like a Christmas tree for 34 points by Colt Mccoy in Cleveland. Everybodies memory seems to forget everything but the last 2 weeks for the Patriots.

Now they go on the road, vs a non conference opponent that they don't know and haven't scouted as well, short week means even less practice, brady didn't practice, Stephen Neal might not play or will play hurt and will be asked to block Suh? Suh has been one of the best pass rushing D-Tackles in the league. Vanden Bosh is relentless and if Cliff Avril plays the Lions D-Line can get after you. Everybody in the whole world wants to take the Patriots, just look at this board and people pounding it...and I'll gladly be on the other side.

[bandit bettor]

I agree with you detroit is better then there record but 3 turnovers or not its tuff to beat the colts and no matter how you do it most teams cant.. How about the colts scoring a backdoor touchdown to make the pats not cover pats shoulda won buy ten.. I agree its not gonna be a blow out but i think patriots offense is way to powerfull and they will put up 30 plus and i just dont see the lions covering but i could be wrong i usually am lol... The whole world is pounding the pats but the public isnt always wrong. Tom brady is a movie star pretty boy spotlight loving boy and with the world watching you dont think the pats wanna put on a good show eithier... Bottom line for me is if they both bring there a game pats win buy 20... If pats bring there b game and detroit brings there a game then maybe detroit covers..

[bandit bettor]

As for the browns game i consider the browns to be better then the lions but they have shocked many teams.. they held the saints to 17 i mean evry team lays a egg once or twice a year but the key factor is they have been getting better while the opposition being the lions have been getting worse

[jackmyhoggoff]

C-GOLD I don't think the Lions have covered a spread on turkey day since b.c. !! THOUGHTS ?

[msec512]

Good points for the Lions. But, I'll take Tom Brady against the terrible Lions defense.

[bandit bettor]

alot of the cappers and gurus seem to be on the lions.. I am not saying its impossible for the lions to cover i have a small play on ne-6.5 but if i had to bet huge with a gun to my head it wouldnt be on the lions..

[Plu$Money]

C-GOLD I don't think the Lions have covered a spread on turkey day since b.c. !! THOUGHTS ?

But they are 4-0 ats at home this year I believe...

[RiverRaid]

Going with the Lions today myself. GL

[mighty maron]

What is the train of thought that the more veteran team does better on a short week? After all the Pats have something to play for..tough division race with NY Jets while the Lions are zero. I think Pats cover

[Plu$Money]

C-GOLD I don't think the Lions have covered a spread on turkey day since b.c. !! THOUGHTS ?

But they are 4-0 ats at home this year I believe...

[bandit bettor]

someone gave me some advice a long time ago and it always stuck never put your money on bad teams or bad things happen..

[mighty maron]

I rarely take bets just on the first quarter but getting New England -1/2 for the first quarter is just too tempting...small bet on this as well

[White Rhino]

nice write up I hope it hits.

[C-Gold]

C-GOLD I don't think the Lions have covered a spread on turkey day since b.c. !! THOUGHTS ?

The 2010 Lions have different players than...
2009 Lions
2008 Lions
2007 Lions
2006 Lions etc.

[C-Gold]

Good points for the Lions. But, I'll take Tom Brady against the terrible Lions defense.

Tell me the Lions D-Line is terrible after the game.

[MTek]

Liking the Lions to show up today

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Tell me the Lions D-Line is terrible after the game.

I'll tell you now and after how about that.

Lions defense sucks.

See you in a couple of hours to tell you how bad they suck again.

[C-Gold]

What is the train of thought that the more veteran team does better on a short week? After all the Pats have something to play for..tough division race with NY Jets while the Lions are zero. I think Pats cover

I see the exact opposite.

For the 2-8 Lions ( they lost to some good teams, Eagles, Giants, Packers, Bears) THIS is their playoffs, THIS is their super bowl, THIS is their prime time game.

The Patriots defense is young now, and this is their third straight BIG TIME spotlight game. 3 emotional highs? How much did they practice this week?
How well do they know the Lions?

This is a harder game than you think for the Patriots.

[314cashes]

I see the pats winning by a couple td's

[C-Gold]

I agree with you detroit is better then there record but 3 turnovers or not its tuff to beat the colts and no matter how you do it most teams cant.. How about the colts scoring a backdoor touchdown to make the pats not cover pats shoulda won buy ten.. I agree its not gonna be a blow out but i think patriots offense is way to powerfull and they will put up 30 plus and i just dont see the lions covering but i could be wrong i usually am lol... The whole world is pounding the pats but the public isnt always wrong. Tom brady is a movie star pretty boy spotlight loving boy and with the world watching you dont think the pats wanna put on a good show eithier... Bottom line for me is if they both bring there a game pats win buy 20... If pats bring there b game and detroit brings there a game then maybe detroit covers..

The Colts scored a backdoor TD?
What makes you think the Lions can't do that this week? The Patriots defense is weak.

[vcj16]

i agree lions +7

[C-Gold]

I'll tell you now and after how about that.

Lions defense sucks.

See you in a couple of hours to tell you how bad they suck again.

I know you are a Fal-COONS fan from Atlanta, but can you read?

I said the Lions D-Line.

[aca]

Best of Luck!

[C-Gold]

I rarely take bets just on the first quarter but getting New England -1/2 for the first quarter is just too tempting...small bet on this as well

Baddddd beat, on the last play of the quarter

I feel for ya man, I've been screwed over before, I'll toss ya some SBR points to make you feel better.

[Mr. Yo]

I'd had love to go with you on the Lions bet. Sound reasoning but they are the Lions. Enough said

[mighty maron]

Baddddd beat, on the last play of the quarter

I feel for ya man, I've been screwed over before, I'll toss ya some SBR points to make you feel better.

The bad beats work both ways. I had UConn Witch State over 64 for the half. UConn hits three pointer off glass at the buzzer to win me it by 1.

Thanks for the note and points

[mighty maron]

Wonder what the half time pep talk and adjustments were....Pats are humming right now

[ChileCheese]

I think people forgot this was a Super Bowl contender vs. The FUKKING DETROIT LIONS. Its pretty much that simple.

[msec512]

Tell me the Lions D-Line is terrible after the game.

Ok. They still suck. New England put up 45 against them.

[jackmyhoggoff]

The 2010 Lions have different players than...
2009 Lions
2008 Lions
2007 Lions
2006 Lions etc.

AND it CONTINUES ON !

[bandit bettor]

( tell me the lion d line sucks after the game) THEY SUCK

please continue to post sucker bets could be good fade material

dude do you homework before you think your on to somthing

[GimpedMaster]

I do think some of the research and reasoning was sound, but the problem is that it appears you haven't actually watched the Pats or Lions play in the last 3 weeks, I just don't see how anyone could bet on the Lions today... I hate to say I told you so, but luckily I'm typing instead of using dictation software so I won't have to.

If it's any consolation, there are other greedy bastards like myself who thought the Pats were such a lock they would work the total into a teaser as well and lose in the end...

[C-Gold]

( tell me the lion d line sucks after the game) THEY SUCK

please continue to post sucker bets could be good fade material

dude do you homework before you think your on to somthing

Yeah, no write up, no break down no nothing. I've never watched these teams play ????

Nobody wins them all you focking ass clown. You probably didn't even bet on the game.