I've been on the PUP list for three weeks for various reasons, had no time to "handicap" at all. Naturally, the largely instinct-based notional picks I made over those three weeks went 12-3, while I'm actually down on the season so far in real bets. Either a case of irritating irony, or I over-think this whole business and should put less work into it.. who knows?
Nevertheless, this week's foxy five come courtesy of my usual "handicapping" approach, and it's about darn time to turn my dreadful season around:
Jacksonville -1.5 over Cleveland
After two big weeks for the Browns - taking on coach Mangini's two previous employers - here is a trip to steamy Florida in what looks like a classic "let-down" spot. For all the Hillis hype, the Jags have run the ball equally as well as Cleveland this season. Garrard is in decent form and the squad and fans should be energised after last week's thrilling 'Hail Mary' win. They did enough to deserve that win regardless of the extraordinary finale, and the Jags merit support to get an important win here.
10 units Jaguars
Kansas City -8 over Arizona
It always feels hairy supporting mediocre teams like KC against large spreads, but I catch the scent of a blowout here. The Cards have lost five games by greater than eight points already this season (two by over thirty) and according to my analysis they're even worse than their record suggests. Here they make a trip to face opponents who will have been preparing hard and angry after last week's no-handshake hammering at Denver. On top of that, Chiefs' chief Haley knows the Cardinals set-up from the inside.
7 units Chiefs
San Francisco -3.5 over Tampa Bay
Chalk this one up to the travel-factor. There's barely a longer trip in the NFL than the one facing the Buccaneers, and their 6-3 record looks something of a mirage. Their wins have all come against teams who currently have losing records. With a spark of life on offense since Troy Smith's insertion, the 49ers should win and stay in the hunt for this year's "you have it, no you have it" NFC West title.
8 units 49ers
Indianapolis +4 @ New England
Chances are Bill finds a way to neutralise the Colts as they shiver into the cold Massachussetts evening. As a Patriots fan, I hope so. As a bettor, I have the Pats down as a touch over-rated in offensive scoring and I'm fearful of a defense with the worst third-down performance in the entire league and an unimpressive showing against the pass so far, going up against Peyton Manning's tedious brilliance. Small play on the Colts gives me consolation if they spoil my Sunday.
5 units Colts
Philadelphia -3 over NYG
Philly beat the Giants home and away last season, and now they've got the hottest quarterback in the league/world/universe. It's a tough assignment for Coughlin's crew with OL problems; losing your starting center is a big deal. The Eagles have momentum, home advantage, and my money on them.
10 units Eagles
There you go, please send your gifts to the usual address.
Nevertheless, this week's foxy five come courtesy of my usual "handicapping" approach, and it's about darn time to turn my dreadful season around:
Jacksonville -1.5 over Cleveland
After two big weeks for the Browns - taking on coach Mangini's two previous employers - here is a trip to steamy Florida in what looks like a classic "let-down" spot. For all the Hillis hype, the Jags have run the ball equally as well as Cleveland this season. Garrard is in decent form and the squad and fans should be energised after last week's thrilling 'Hail Mary' win. They did enough to deserve that win regardless of the extraordinary finale, and the Jags merit support to get an important win here.
10 units Jaguars
Kansas City -8 over Arizona
It always feels hairy supporting mediocre teams like KC against large spreads, but I catch the scent of a blowout here. The Cards have lost five games by greater than eight points already this season (two by over thirty) and according to my analysis they're even worse than their record suggests. Here they make a trip to face opponents who will have been preparing hard and angry after last week's no-handshake hammering at Denver. On top of that, Chiefs' chief Haley knows the Cardinals set-up from the inside.
7 units Chiefs
San Francisco -3.5 over Tampa Bay
Chalk this one up to the travel-factor. There's barely a longer trip in the NFL than the one facing the Buccaneers, and their 6-3 record looks something of a mirage. Their wins have all come against teams who currently have losing records. With a spark of life on offense since Troy Smith's insertion, the 49ers should win and stay in the hunt for this year's "you have it, no you have it" NFC West title.
8 units 49ers
Indianapolis +4 @ New England
Chances are Bill finds a way to neutralise the Colts as they shiver into the cold Massachussetts evening. As a Patriots fan, I hope so. As a bettor, I have the Pats down as a touch over-rated in offensive scoring and I'm fearful of a defense with the worst third-down performance in the entire league and an unimpressive showing against the pass so far, going up against Peyton Manning's tedious brilliance. Small play on the Colts gives me consolation if they spoil my Sunday.
5 units Colts
Philadelphia -3 over NYG
Philly beat the Giants home and away last season, and now they've got the hottest quarterback in the league/world/universe. It's a tough assignment for Coughlin's crew with OL problems; losing your starting center is a big deal. The Eagles have momentum, home advantage, and my money on them.
10 units Eagles
There you go, please send your gifts to the usual address.
