Disclaimer: I am not 73% on my picks. I am not guaranteeing that I will hit at 73% for the remainder of the season. You can fade me if you'd like, and I understand that this is a small sample size. What I can say, though, is that since posting on SBR I am 11-4 in my posted plays and I enjoy posting my thoughts on a forum.
Proof:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...7-3-plays.html - last weeks 4-1 on plays. That thread has the link to the prior week, which links to the week prior to that. If you don't believe me, you can do the leg work yourself.
What I will do from this point forward is post all of my plays/analysis in this one thread. I will try and keep a running tally of my record, and will start posting units.
On the topic of units, my system for units is not the typical 1 unit = 1%. I won't release the exact numbers, but a "1 unit" bet will be my base play up to maybe 3 or 4 units. It is very rare for me to go over that amount, if I do then take notice.
I will post my analysis/picks on EVERY GAME on the calendar. I have posted my plays for the last three weeks here, and am 11-4. So I guess on average I am playing about 5 single games per week, plus a few parlays/teasers for shits and giggles.
The last two weeks, I've been posting 2 or 3 team teasers that I am playing very heavily and I have made quite some money on those. I do not consider myself an expert in these by any means, but I have not missed on one posted teaser that I have played for more than $5.
And one last thing, due to living in the US and having some problems with my debit card and signing up for a sports betting site, I am currently using Bodog. If anyone can recommend a site that is US-friendly and debit card friendly I would greatly appreciate it as Bodog is not the best book by any means, especially with the heavy juice and ****** up odds making it hard to bet favorites.
So with all of the little things out of the way, I'm going to post some preliminary analysis on the Thursday Night Game.
Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins -1.5
-To me, this is a game that will be a sneaky-good kind of game. Everyone expected a great contest on the first Thursday Night Game between two powerhouse teams, and then we are stuck with two "over achieving" teams the following week... Well, at least that's what the public thinks. This will be a good game.
Chad Henne is out. Chad Pennington is out... Insert Tyler Thigpen? Time to pound the Bears, right? Eh... No, not quite. Although the Chiefs may not have been such a great team in 2008 with Tyler Thigpen, that certainly was not his fault. If you look back at his stats, how many would remember that in 14 games he had 18 TDs and 12 INT? So Tyler Thigpen is not as crummy as many people would like to think.
Tyler Thigpen is a quarterback that flourishes on the run. He'll give you maybe 30 yards running a game, which always helps. Jake Long is expected to be out, so whether they move Carey to LT or keep him at RT, the Dolphins will have trouble blocking Julius Peppers (who is always moved to play the weak link, ask me, I'm a Panthers fan who watched Peppers not try if playing a good tackle, but always tried vs shitty ones). Perhaps this is a good thing. The Bears pass rush will come from one side and Thigpen will be forced to scramble... Which is how he thrives.
The Bears defense is very good. Let's get that out there. But, this is a Thursday night game. Look at the Ravens last week - they had to travel on the road and play a short rest Thursday night game... And their defense wasn't 100% of their normal production. While Tyler Thigpen is no Matt Ryan at home, the fact remains that teams traveling on short rest simply will not play up to their normal production levels.
Last week, I foreshadowed Jared Allen and crew getting to Jay Cutler... And they didn't. But the Dolphins have almost twice as many sacks as the Vikings. I am hoping that their pass rush gets to Jay Cutler, and that will force him to throw picks. The Bears are not as good as their record suggests. Jay Cutler hasn't been Jay Cutler - in that he hasn't been turning the ball over three times a game. The Dolphins have a good pass rush and a good enough defense as a whole that they will get Jay Cutler to turn the ball over.
The Dolphins have played some very good teams at home this season... The Bears are actually their worst opponent at home so far. The Dolphins want to prove that they are a good team at home or on the road, and will look to showcase that on national TV. Do not believe the shit that they are good on the road and shitty at home. They beat a good Titans team pretty easily, and they should beat the Bears.
Actually as I've been typing this, I am withdrawing my money from bodog so I will have no money in any accounts right now... So I can't actually play this right now, so I can't say that I am... But if I can find another book and some method to get them my money then I'll do so.
This won't be a huge play for me, I'll be playing this for one unit as soon as I can.
I'm liking a few other games, but with no means to place the bets I won't be looking too deep into it and I don't want to put out too much info right away
Gotta keep you guys coming back.
Proof:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...7-3-plays.html - last weeks 4-1 on plays. That thread has the link to the prior week, which links to the week prior to that. If you don't believe me, you can do the leg work yourself.
What I will do from this point forward is post all of my plays/analysis in this one thread. I will try and keep a running tally of my record, and will start posting units.
On the topic of units, my system for units is not the typical 1 unit = 1%. I won't release the exact numbers, but a "1 unit" bet will be my base play up to maybe 3 or 4 units. It is very rare for me to go over that amount, if I do then take notice.
I will post my analysis/picks on EVERY GAME on the calendar. I have posted my plays for the last three weeks here, and am 11-4. So I guess on average I am playing about 5 single games per week, plus a few parlays/teasers for shits and giggles.
The last two weeks, I've been posting 2 or 3 team teasers that I am playing very heavily and I have made quite some money on those. I do not consider myself an expert in these by any means, but I have not missed on one posted teaser that I have played for more than $5.
And one last thing, due to living in the US and having some problems with my debit card and signing up for a sports betting site, I am currently using Bodog. If anyone can recommend a site that is US-friendly and debit card friendly I would greatly appreciate it as Bodog is not the best book by any means, especially with the heavy juice and ****** up odds making it hard to bet favorites.
So with all of the little things out of the way, I'm going to post some preliminary analysis on the Thursday Night Game.
Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins -1.5
-To me, this is a game that will be a sneaky-good kind of game. Everyone expected a great contest on the first Thursday Night Game between two powerhouse teams, and then we are stuck with two "over achieving" teams the following week... Well, at least that's what the public thinks. This will be a good game.
Chad Henne is out. Chad Pennington is out... Insert Tyler Thigpen? Time to pound the Bears, right? Eh... No, not quite. Although the Chiefs may not have been such a great team in 2008 with Tyler Thigpen, that certainly was not his fault. If you look back at his stats, how many would remember that in 14 games he had 18 TDs and 12 INT? So Tyler Thigpen is not as crummy as many people would like to think.
Tyler Thigpen is a quarterback that flourishes on the run. He'll give you maybe 30 yards running a game, which always helps. Jake Long is expected to be out, so whether they move Carey to LT or keep him at RT, the Dolphins will have trouble blocking Julius Peppers (who is always moved to play the weak link, ask me, I'm a Panthers fan who watched Peppers not try if playing a good tackle, but always tried vs shitty ones). Perhaps this is a good thing. The Bears pass rush will come from one side and Thigpen will be forced to scramble... Which is how he thrives.
The Bears defense is very good. Let's get that out there. But, this is a Thursday night game. Look at the Ravens last week - they had to travel on the road and play a short rest Thursday night game... And their defense wasn't 100% of their normal production. While Tyler Thigpen is no Matt Ryan at home, the fact remains that teams traveling on short rest simply will not play up to their normal production levels.
Last week, I foreshadowed Jared Allen and crew getting to Jay Cutler... And they didn't. But the Dolphins have almost twice as many sacks as the Vikings. I am hoping that their pass rush gets to Jay Cutler, and that will force him to throw picks. The Bears are not as good as their record suggests. Jay Cutler hasn't been Jay Cutler - in that he hasn't been turning the ball over three times a game. The Dolphins have a good pass rush and a good enough defense as a whole that they will get Jay Cutler to turn the ball over.
The Dolphins have played some very good teams at home this season... The Bears are actually their worst opponent at home so far. The Dolphins want to prove that they are a good team at home or on the road, and will look to showcase that on national TV. Do not believe the shit that they are good on the road and shitty at home. They beat a good Titans team pretty easily, and they should beat the Bears.
Actually as I've been typing this, I am withdrawing my money from bodog so I will have no money in any accounts right now... So I can't actually play this right now, so I can't say that I am... But if I can find another book and some method to get them my money then I'll do so.
This won't be a huge play for me, I'll be playing this for one unit as soon as I can.
I'm liking a few other games, but with no means to place the bets I won't be looking too deep into it and I don't want to put out too much info right away
Gotta keep you guys coming back.
