Buccaneers -6.5/-7?

[Golokhov]

Anyone care to explain to me why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are only a touchdown favorite against the hapless Carolina Panthers this weekend?

Tampa has been extremely competitive this year and has handled all of their 'winnable' games really well. Beyond that, they are a team that is gaining confidence by the week. A loss is never good, but I can assure you that the Bucs will take plenty of positives from their loss last week in Atlanta.

On the flipside, the Panthers look like they've tapped out. Matt Moore is out for the year, so is Jeff Otah, Jonathan Stewart had a big concussion last week and DeAngelo Williams might not even play.

How is Tampa only favored by seven - I was sure this would be over a touchdown and closer to 10 points.

This has to be one of the more bizarre lines I have seen all year long.

[RJ89]

Tampa's defense isn't very good.. not sure how Carolina can exploit it though..

[drfunkmaster]

OVER is the pick

[k13]

Why would they be more?

As you can see the line is already going down.

[southmadejd]

Why would they be more?

As you can see the line is already going down.

Ummm because, Carolina completely sucks, they have no QB, no running back, no defense and they don't have home field advantage. I am not sure why they wouldn't be more than -6.5.

[SR]

OVER is the pick

Agreed, both defenses blow

[Golokhov]

Carolina has lost by less than seven points just twice this year. Once was their trip to New Orleans and the other was their home win against San Francisco.

In the other six games, their average margin of defeat is 16.2 points per game.

[southmadejd]

Golokhov, I completely agree with the play. I am just trying to decide how much to put on it. It does scare me that it looks a little bit too easy though.

[wakeboardr886]

I'm going BIGGGG on it. Hurry before the line rises to 7 1/2

[sdsports]

Love the pick. Trying to figure out another team to parley it with.

[bobbyk1133]

I think the line is where it should be. TB should be favored in this one obviously, but they aren't exactly contenders. I'll be taking TB, but if it was -7.5 I'd pass.

[EastsidaProduct]

I'll be rooting for my Cats to damper someone's parade. But I won't bet on it.

[vboyt]

because tampa sucks

[bradnowell]

tampa is easy money

[thebestthereis]

tampa dog bet, tampa favorite run very far

[Golokhov]

I'll be honest, I'm staying away.

Logically, there is no reason for Carolina to be in this game. I see this as being a huge teaser play on the day too - a lot of people dropping this line down to a PICK. But I just can't pull the trigger given how fishy this looks and given that all the money is pouring in on Tampa Bay.

Who in their right mind walks up to the window and calls out Carolina with less than a touchdown? Seriously? Only someone who hasn't watched football this entire season.

How are the Bucs not favored by nine or 10? Or even more than a touchdown? I hope it hits for Tampa backers but this smells more fishy than the Little Mermaid when she first stepped on land. All the money on Tampa, yet the line is moving the other way.

[EricZ116]

Carolina should easily be inside of a TD. The Bucs haven't won by more than 3 vs any team besides Carolina, and Carolina should've been much closer. I am a Panthers fan and don't bet my team, but I think they should cover... They have some pride, and the Bucs can't be entirely focused vs a team they beat by 13 points already this week and is 1-7.

[JoeyCashMoney]

Tampa's defense isn't very good.. not sure how Carolina can exploit it though..

Watch out, they have some ball hawks on defense. I promise you that. THey arent great on D, dont get me wrong, but they will get a key turnover or two on whatever terrible QB the Panthers choose to start.

[rockland]

Carolina best bet of the week IMO

[JoeyCashMoney]

Carolina should easily be inside of a TD. The Bucs haven't won by more than 3 vs any team besides Carolina, and Carolina should've been much closer. I am a Panthers fan and don't bet my team, but I think they should cover... They have some pride, and the Bucs can't be entirely focused vs a team they beat by 13 points already this week and is 1-7.

Havent the Panthers been losing most of their games by more than 7, including when they played TB at home already this year

Panthers are one of the worst in the league right now, if not the worst. Clausen and Pike cant do anything.

[JoeyCashMoney]

I wrote this in my square picks NFL thread found here (would love feedback on it as I am new to this site).

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/782555-my-three-square-plays-f4r-w33k-10-thoughts-suggestions-please.html

Would also love feedback on this specific portion which I am pasting below. Thanks for reading guys-

Tampa Bay Bucs to cover against Carolina Panthers: IN TAMPA BAY CURRENT LINE IS 6.5

I have had great luck betting against the straight sh*t teams in the league this year. This one is special, though. TB is coming off of a very well played game against one of the best teams in the NFC right now, and they opened up shop on the road in Carolina earlier in the year. What's the difference between then and now? Bucs are better and the Panthers suck even more now then they did in week 2 or 3 or whenever that game was. Their running game is looking good, Mike Williams is really coming into his own at WR and impressing me as is Freeman.

Now dont get me wrong, Carolina has a good defense. But continuous sh*t field position and turnovers will result in points. Bucs actually have some ball hawks on defesne. As for Carolina's offense, they are in the midst of a QB controversy between Jim Clausen, Timmy or Tony or Tom or Ricky Pike or whoever the hell that no name from Cinnci is. And I think there is also some talk of some sh*t WR on the practice squad or something getting some reps. Yikes. Then you have both heads of the two-headed monster at running back out. I think their is some practice squad dude starting at RB.

Theme: Bucs see themselves as a playoff contender. To be in the discussion, this is a MUST WIN for TB to stay alive in the South. And after last week's loss, they HAVE to come out and make a statement to stay alive. Freeman will lead a very energetic team to a home win with the cannon shooting off from that pirate ship and the crowd will be VERY into it. Bucs are playing for a post-season birth and the Panthers are playing for the 1st round draft pick. I LOVE fading (or whatever the heady insider w3rd is) on sh*t teams.

[EricZ116]

I'm sure that's what Vegas wants you to think... The Panthers actually have a good/very good pass defense, and a good enough run stop unit to contain Blount. I'd be surprised if either team got over 20 TBH because we know how poor the Panthers' offense is... But is Tampa's offense really that great? I don't see Carolina losing this bad to Tampa twice in the same season. Tampa is coming off a deflating loss, what makes you think they will get up to play a team they already demolished at their own home and they see is 1-7?

[pinionboy]

Underdog is the play this year

[k13]

Ummm because, Carolina completely sucks, they have no QB, no running back, no defense and they don't have home field advantage. I am not sure why they wouldn't be more than -6.5.

Like any of that matters.

Tampa is not much better. 7 points is a lot in the nfl.

[LT Profits]

Because Tampa Bay is too young and inexperienced to be giving 7 points to anyone. In fact, I believe 4 of their 5 wins have been by 3 points or less.

[Wade Dwayne]

7 is about right. Freeman doesn't look like a quarterback that is able to dominate throughout a whole game. He is more of a timely big play QB. Carolina will be allowed to stay around in this one.

[JoeyCashMoney]

[quote=EricZ116;7365603]I'm sure that's what Vegas wants you to think... The Panthers actually have a good/very good pass defense, and a good enough run stop unit to contain Blount. I'd be surprised if either team got over 20 TBH because we know how poor the Panthers' offense is... But is Tampa's offense really that great? I don't see Carolina losing this bad to Tampa twice in the same season. Tampa is coming off a deflating loss, what makes you think they will get up to play a team they already demolished at their own home and they see is 1-7?[/quote]

You said it in the beginning of your question. Because Tampa is coming off a tough, but VERY WELL played game against the Falcons. The Bucs need this game BIG TIME to stay in the playoff discussion/their division. They come out and make a statement game. I know Carlonia's D has been good, but this team has given up. And for how good their D is, they have lost most of their games by more then a TD, including when they lost to TB in Week 2 in Carolina. I like TB's home field advantage here. And with the terrble field position that TB will continue to get al day, the Panthers will be giving up points.

Again, I dont think TB;s defense is anything to write home about, but they have some ball hawks on defense and easily see Clausen or Pike with some turnovers.I mean, really, how does Carolina cover here? Clausen Pike, or a WR from the practice squad will play QB. Williams and Stewart are both doubtful and the 3rd stringer is also hurt at RB. So I guess that is someone off tne practice squad will play there too. I am just a huge fan of betting against teams in shambles. We will see how it works I guess, best of luck to all no

[JoeyCashMoney]

Why is 7 so unfathomable agaist and an awful team who the Bucs already did beat by more than 7 a few weeks agio?

[Jimmy0607]

Tampa wins by 20+ , The kitties suck

[LT Profits]

Why is 7 so unfathomable agaist and an awful team who the Bucs already did beat by more than 7 a few weeks agio?

Because TB has not been favored by this many points in a long time. That alone is a good enough reason to stay away.

And I repeat, 4 of their 5 wins have been by 3 points or less, so why would anyone be so anxious to lay more than than 3 points with this team? Let alone 7!

[highnine]

it opened 8.5 in vegas and bet down to 6.5

[Seattle Slew]

Carolina is the worst offense in the NFL. It's a major occurrence when they make a 1st down. Last week at home, they were only 6.5 dogs against the Saints and were destroyed. Few weeks prior, they were winless and favored over the Bears.

That said, I don't trust TB. Carolina's defense is not that bad. If they somehow get a defensive score early, they will be motivated to play. If they fall behind, they will quit.

Stay away from this game.

[k13]

Niners have better odds to win the Super Bowl than Tampa Bay right now, what's that say how good the Bucs are?

[eberetta1]

I'm laughing my butt off. Tampa favored??? They'll just play like every bad team and shoot themselves in the foot. Don't think Tampa can cover the spread. I'm also having my worst year at football picks, too.