SSK's NFL Thread

[ssk13809]

Now talking to my Chase team to try and help me overcome my disappointments after the Colts and Chargers blowing home games against far inferior opponents.

Chargers simply got outplayed I have to just give the Raiders credit. Though it always sucks you blow your day because of the so called "safest play" (Chargers -600 ML)


But the Colts, that was the biggest bet of my day. And they SOMEHOW found a way to lose. Amazing.

[Full Time Hobo]

Told you to watch out for the Luck man.

But regardless it looks like you break about even with some pending.

Cashed
Cleveland and the over.

Saints blew it for me though.

Stupid chargers Looks like you dont need to worry about that bandwagon with mr december

[Tree Rollins]

So are you up or down right now?

[ssk13809]

Told you to watch out for the Luck man.

But regardless it looks like you break about even with some pending.

Cashed
Cleveland and the over.

Saints blew it for me though.

Stupid chargers Looks like you dont need to worry about that bandwagon with mr december

Like I said I don't mind the Chargers, though they also cost me. I made the mistake once again thinking -600 automatically meant safest bet.


But the Colts. Just awful luck.




But you're right, because of my LOCK and other ATS play, I break about even. Though it's unfortunate I couldn't put more on my lock because I was out of bankroll at that point.

[Pete0]

How come your hitting ur locks ( at a perfect rate )
and still end up in misery

money management

hope you bounce back bro. BOL.

[ssk13809]

So are you up or down right now?

For the day?

Well thanks to the bad beat in Indianapolis, instead of being up 70 units (which would've been huge), I break about even for the day, thanks to my LOCK and other ATS play.

[ssk13809]

How come your hitting ur locks ( at a perfect rate )
and still end up in misery

money management

hope you bounce back bro. BOL.

Bad Beat? Honestly, extremely unlikely events is the reason I'm not up 70 units for the day. Colts REALLY should have won that game. I'm still shocked they lost. Can't blame anyone but bad luck for that.

[ssk13809]

So my chase team has decided against making a play for Baltimore. The reasoning was that I still already have 2 plays for Baltimore no need to add another.

Fair enough I guess. But it feels very disappointing I will go to sleep about even rather than 70+ units, and the only reason for that was the Colts having the horrible luck.



Hey at least I got a LOCK tomorrow. Never have to worry about those.

[dugdogg]

the colts game was fixed. several of the big bookies who are friends with some of the o-line and DBs gave bribes to the players. their wives told my gf this yesterday when they all went out for the night.

[bradnowell]

RAIDER NATION.. pats on monday

[ssk13809]

the colts game was fixed. several of the big bookies who are friends with some of the o-line and DBs gave bribes to the players. their wives told my gf this yesterday when they all went out for the night.

I thought so

[ssk13809]

So that Colts game ruined my day. From a +60 units day to a -10 Unit day, and all due to very bad luck. Though did hit my LOCK, like usual, and overall finished 2-0 ATS with very easy covers, so I assume most of you still profited tailing me. But the week is yet to be decided.

3 big bets left


Patriots -175 ML
Risk 26.2 to Win 15

Patriots -3 ATS (LOCK)
Risk 18.8 to Win 15

4 Team Teaser (6.5 Points)
Rams +3.5
Patriots +3
Ravens +3.5
Packers -3
Risk 10 to Win 25



Glad I teased Ravens +3.5 keeping this strong teaser alive.



Week will be decided tomorrow. But I'm not worried, it's a LOCK play, 5-0 so far this season in them, and like usual I expect a cover. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick never fail me.

[ssk13809]

Some early action for Thursday Night football


Colts -2.5
Risk 11 to Win 10



Could be a potential lock but I won't meet with my LOCK team till Tuesday night. But still like this play. I still believe in Manning and know today was just a fluke loss.

[dwang0725]

A tipped ball that results in a pick is not luck, teams practice that all the time. INTs for TDs are not luck. Special teams scoring is not luck. Get over it. It happens all the time. These are called mistakes by the other team.

So how well did your "money management team" do for you this week? You lost 51 units today due to bad money management. With the pick you had, you easily could have been even or won money for the day. But don't worry, Keep thinking that you got unlucky. Keep telling yourself that. Vegas love guys like you.

BTW, Good LUCK tomorrow on your lock. I think you'll need it.

[Maxlock]

Here's a proven capper if you guys wish to follow me: MAXLock NFL Handicapping

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/780641-week-10-nfl-picks-67-correct-ats-season-p5.html

[ssk13809]

A tipped ball that results in a pick is not luck, teams practice that all the time. INTs for TDs are not luck. Special teams scoring is not luck. Get over it. It happens all the time. These are called mistakes by the other team.

So how well did your "money management team" do for you this week? You lost 51 units today due to bad money management. With the pick you had, you easily could have been even or won money for the day. But don't worry, Keep thinking that you got unlucky. Keep telling yourself that. Vegas love guys like you.

BTW, Good LUCK tomorrow on your lock. I think you'll need it.

Yes but they don't happen as often as they did to the Colts. The game was decided by them. Once a ball is tipped it is up to luck where it lands. Cowboys the whole game were at the right place at the right time. Any 1 time it would've gone the Colts way and the game would've been over. The FG penalty was embarrassing. And Manning despite being very accurate all game has a 4 interceptions on his statsheet. Undeserved.

I lose 51 units today? Try 10 or so. I will still EASILY finish with my best week of the year once the Patriots do their thing tomorrow. I should fire my MM team for that? I caught a bad beat that's all. The difference between +60 units and -10 units was a horrible beat in Indianapolis, a game they should've definitely won.



Weren't you the same guy who said I lost the Rams bet doing +3 and them winning by 3? Now you come with more "drunk" claims.


Please refrain from posting in this thread with stupid remarks every week.

[ssk13809]

Here's a proven capper if you guys wish to follow me: MAXLock NFL Handicapping
http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...season-p5.html

Proven? Hey buddy most your plays aren't documented.

[ssk13809]

Some early action for Thursday Night football


Colts -2.5
Risk 11 to Win 10



Could be a potential lock but I won't meet with my LOCK team till Tuesday night. But still like this play. I still believe in Manning and know today was just a fluke loss.

And with this game, I will look to get back what lost on the Colts. So, very possible I will be adding more units. But don't want to make the same mistake of last time of putting too many units too early. We'll see what my LOCK team has to say about this game. Like I said, I still believe in Manning, and no 2 fluke games cannot happen.

[dwang0725]

Weren't you the same guy who said I lost the Rams bet doing +3 and them winning by 3? Now you come with more "drunk" claims.


Please refrain from posting in this thread with stupid remarks every week.

No, that was not me. I came to your defense. Please re-read the post.

What I meant was that you lost 51 units in bets, not in total. Those 51 units could have been spent in a much better way that in the manner you played them. Why are you so hell bent in playing parlays? One wrong pick and you're done. Yeah, they pay off well, but they pay off well for a reason. The odds are not even close to what the true odds are. Whereas if you play a 2 team parlay separately which results in one win and one loss, all you're losing is juice. Even better, if you play a 3 team parlay and win 2 and lose one, you would actually win money if you played each game separately. See what I mean?

[ssk13809]

No, that was not me. I came to your defense. Please re-read the post.

What I meant was that you lost 51 units in bets, not in total. Those 51 units could have been spent in a much better way that in the manner you played them. Why are you so hell bent in playing parlays? One wrong pick and you're done. Yeah, they pay off well, but they pay off well for a reason. The odds are not even close to what the true odds are. Whereas if you play a 2 team parlay separately which results in one win and one loss, all you're losing is juice. Even better, if you play a 3 team parlay and win 2 and lose one, you would actually win money if you played each game separately. See what I mean?

Well I didn't lost 51 units on parlays, so you have no point. And how can we forget how a parlay saved me last weekend.

So yeah, I didn't lose 51 units in parlays. And as far as teasers go, I'm 4-2 in teasers, with 1 pending above, a 4 team teaser with NE left, and the overall odds have been against me on teasers (+115). So based on that, 4-2 on +115, I have done well on teasers.


So what 51 are you talking about anyways? Though I do agree parlays I need to cut down. Especially now that I play teasers.

[Tree Rollins]

Here's a proven capper if you guys wish to follow me: MAXLock NFL Handicapping http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...season-p5.html

Were you fired from ssk's lock team?
Are you mad that he didn't take you with him to see belichick?

There is a little poster named 'betterbizness'. He's a well known troll. but he was also once a member of MY money management team. And he was terrible. The guy could barely add. I once asked him 'what is 9 x 2' and he ended up in the hospital for 2 weeks because of a brain hemorrhage. After that, i had to fire him from my money management team.
He's still bitter and continues to troll the forum looking for revenge.

The lesson? Don't be a hater ass troll.

[Full Time Hobo]

Were you fired from ssk's lock team?
Are you mad that he didn't take you with him to see belichick?

There is a little poster named 'betterbizness'. He's a well known troll. but he was also once a member of MY money management team. And he was terrible. The guy could barely add. I once asked him 'what is 9 x 2' and he ended up in the hospital for 2 weeks because of a brain hemorrhage. After that, i had to fire him from my money management team.
He's still bitter and continues to troll the forum looking for revenge.

The lesson? Don't be a hater ass troll.

[Tree Rollins]

i agree with the guy who says cut down on the crazy 4 and 5 team parlays/teasers. Unless you're only going to play a couple units on them. Those odds are crazy.

[ssk13809]

Were you fired from ssk's lock team?
Are you mad that he didn't take you with him to see belichick?

There is a little poster named 'betterbizness'. He's a well known troll. but he was also once a member of MY money management team. And he was terrible. The guy could barely add. I once asked him 'what is 9 x 2' and he ended up in the hospital for 2 weeks because of a brain hemorrhage. After that, i had to fire him from my money management team.
He's still bitter and continues to troll the forum looking for revenge.

The lesson? Don't be a hater ass troll.

What's worse is he comes in my thread showing off his "claimed" ATS record (67%), which is in fact LOWER than my documented ATS record in this thread (70%).

And quite frankly it should be higher than 70% if not for those "chasing picks" and overall struggle as of late.

[ssk13809]

i agree with the guy who says cut down on the crazy 4 and 5 team parlays/teasers. Unless you're only going to play a couple units on them. Those odds are crazy.

Parlays maybe so.


But teasers? I'm 4-2 so far, on avg. of +115 odds. And I have another teaser pending

4 Team Teaser (6.5 Points)
Rams +3.5
Patriots +3
Ravens +3.5
Packers -3
Risk 10 to Win 25


And I've already hit 3/4 games there, with my LOCK only one remaining.







Teasers are my thing. Parlays maybe I need to cut them down a bit.

[ssk13809]

Overall though I'll admit my Pick Management Team is inexperienced and is still looking to find a consistent approach or strategy, and hasn't found it yet. But hopefully they learn from this week.



But honestly, just bad luck is the reason I'm not at +70 units at the end of this week rather than about even. No one really to blame here but bad luck.

[Full Time Hobo]

Considering hedging?

[Tree Rollins]

i hear you. But i hate to see you lose the 50 some units or whatever it was on some of those big teasers/parlays. I know you're still up, and i'm not saying don't play them at all, but that's a lot of units to lose.

[dwang0725]

No, maybe not 51 units, but you play close to 30 units on pure parlays (not counting teasers), whereas you only played 45 units total (one ML and one ATS) on your lock. 2:3 ratio on parlays to locks? That's not very good money management. Parlays are long shots, especially 3-4 teamers. They don't hit very often. No if and or buts. If you're playing them, it shouldn't be with 30-40% of your bankroll. It should be more like 5% of your bankroll. Playing them at such high percentages of your bankroll is just plain dumb.

Yes you did hit one last week, but do not expect them to happen all the time. If you're hitting even close to 50% of your parlays, that would be very good.

[Maxlock]

Proven? Hey buddy most your plays aren't documented.

In new to this site. So in three weeks my documented record stands at 19-10-2 ATS and 51-27-7 on the season ATS. Take it or leave it, it doesn't matter to me. I do this for the people that wish to follow me and put money in their pockets instead of following your analysis which hedges on "this team's defense sucks so pick the other team." Anyways, it's not my intention to start trash talk on your thread, take care junior.

MAXLock NFL Handicapping http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...season-p5.html

[ssk13809]

In new to this site. So in three weeks my documented record stands at 19-10-2 ATS and 51-27-7 on the season ATS. Take it or leave it, it doesn't matter to me. I do this for the people that wish to follow me and put money in their pockets instead of following your analysis which hedges on "this team's defense sucks so pick the other team." Anyways, it's not my intention to start trash talk on your thread, take care junior.

MAXLock NFL Handicapping http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...season-p5.html

Your DOCUMENTED or UNDOCUMENTED ATS record in this site is worse than my DOCUMENTED ATS record. You are at 65%, I'm at 70%. So again, what is the point of your post in specifically THIS THREAD?

And that is deflated because it adds "Chase Plays" (which I really would not have bet) and my recent slump.

Yet you still are worse.





Tell me when you hit 70% and then you can talk. 65% is not worth bragging.

[ssk13809]

i hear you. But i hate to see you lose the 50 some units or whatever it was on some of those big teasers/parlays. I know you're still up, and i'm not saying don't play them at all, but that's a lot of units to lose.

The only teaser I lost this week was a 25 unit one. I won a 25 unit teaser as well. And am on my way to winning another 4 team teaser. And prior to all of this I was 3-1 in teasers on +113 odds. Teasers shall continue.

Parlays, you're right, NEED to be cut.

[ssk13809]

No, maybe not 51 units, but you play close to 30 units on pure parlays (not counting teasers), whereas you only played 45 units total (one ML and one ATS) on your lock. 2:3 ratio on parlays to locks? That's not very good money management. Parlays are long shots, especially 3-4 teamers. They don't hit very often. No if and or buts. If you're playing them, it shouldn't be with 30-40% of your bankroll. It should be more like 5% of your bankroll. Playing them at such high percentages of your bankroll is just plain dumb.

Yes you did hit one last week, but do not expect them to happen all the time. If you're hitting even close to 50% of your parlays, that would be very good.

Once again you're right parlays need to be cut a little. But honestly, did the Chargers really have to lose? It seems my parlays are always crashing with the seemingly "safest" bet of the week.

[Maxlock]

Your DOCUMENTED or UNDOCUMENTED ATS record in this site is worse than my DOCUMENTED ATS record. You are at 65%, I'm at 70%. So again, what is the point of your post in specifically THIS THREAD? And that is deflated because it adds "Chase Plays" (which I really would not have bet) and my recent slump. Yet you still are worse. Tell me when you hit 70% and then you can talk. 65% is not worth bragging.

[quote=ssk13809;7801761]

You're a joke and so is your entire thread. I just feel awfully horrible for whoever follows you...

[Tree Rollins]

Cool. Well listen, I'm on the Pats myself. I like them a lot tomorrow night. So good luck.