C-Gold's NFL Week 8 Breakdown

BetterBizness · 10-27-10, 07:34 PM

Nice write ups... well thought out... Definately will incorporate alot of these thoughts through the week, particularly the Jason Campbell & Troy Smith analysis... Think I will also be looking strong at NE as well...

C-Gold · 10-27-10, 08:43 PM

This morning I was listening to Mike & Mike in the morning. Mike Greenberg is a smart guy but he's 1-10 ATS in his stone cold lead pipe locks as he gets too emotional. His his idiot friend Mike Golic is just a big dumb ass, use him as a proxy for "Joe Public". Anyway they have Adam Schefter on with NFL news and notes, Favre this Favre that and Troy Smith will be starting for the 49ers. Mike Golic said what happened to David Carr, why wouldn't they start him???? Adam Schefer paused a second as if to state the obvious, and then in a slightly deeper voice said, "Did you actually see David Car play last week?". I couldn't stop laughing.

Two weeks ago vs Oakland, Alex Smith over threw one of his receivers so bad that they refs threw a flag for intentional grounding and I'm not even joking.

Comedy Gold

Super Duper · 10-27-10, 08:51 PM

As usual, you nail it when it comes to Qbs in this league. And if the vikings start Tarvaris McCampbellPepper at Qb, they'll get blown out by 17 points or more. I say "only" 17 because he'll do the same checkdown stuff that Jason Campbell does. Chilly will keep it close to the vest, and fewer to's will occur. BUt fewer scores as well. And it does boggle the mind to hear bozos say that about putting Tarvaris McVickPepper in there instead of Favre. People generally have no clue.

I will disagree with you about Buffalo at KC, because I see the Bills able to score against KC where other teams have trouble. While KC will be able to run at will as you suggest, I believe they will not be breaking any long TD runs like last week, hence a closer score. Say 27-23 KC. I do wish you luck if you wager on that one.

I agree with on Miami. The Dolphins take a step down in difficulty this week, as far as facing a defense. I don't know if Mike Zimmer's magic ran out, or the emotions of his wife's tragedy helping the team last year has worn off, but they've given up 23, 24, and 39 the past 3 week weeks to CLE, TB and ATL. OK, Matt Ryan and the Falcons can sometimes do that to you, but the Bengals have been run on, thrown on, and moved on by some bad to average QBs and RBs as well. I mean, Josh Freeman threw for nearly 3 bills against the bungels, and the buccos averaged over 5 yards a carry. The Browns were able to get points when they needed them against cincy. This dolphin offense has been facing tough defenses and I thought last week was a turning point for Chad Henne. I might be wrong, as I found myself grimmacing every time Henne threw a deep out against the steeler corners who were jumping routes all day, but he seemed to avoid disaster very well. And he came up with a couple of decent drives. I really think it comes down to can they block cincy's edge pressure. I say yes, as the bengals have been having difficulty getting the pressure they need to succeed.

I do like Stafford. But not enough to overcome what I still see as an undervalued squad in Washington. McNabb has been good so far. They throw the deep ball almost as much as the Eagles do (which I'll go into in another thread), and his accuracy and playmaking has been better than most QBs can deliver. Redskins defense is better than then Lions offense. That should be the difference, say 20-16.

I also would like to go against Troy Smith. Not that I think he can't play in this league, as a backup anyway. But because he's not good enough to back in this spot, IMO. I also think people are over reacting to the blowout of Denver by OAK last week. I hear guys on ESPN saying the Broncos are quitting and McDaniels should be fired, etc. This team in Denver, while not a really good one, is still dangerous and can move the ball on anybody. I realize Kyle Orton is not a great QB, but he handles that offense better than people think. I honestly believe if the Broncos were an east coast team, more people would see that. I can see them moving the ball, and scoring on SF this Sunday in London. I can see McDaniels putting emphasis on setting the field ablaze in this game, a showcase game, while Singletary is simply in crisis mode. The 49ers started with the worst offensive coordinator in the game (Jimmy Raye), and there's really not time to recover in midseason from that, unless you have a good QB. They don't. Denver wins, 27-17.

As I said earlier in another thread, your threads are a must read and I enjoy talking football with you any time. Your analysis is fresher than anyone else's I encounter. That's a fact. Keep up the good work.

S D

C-Gold · 10-27-10, 09:30 PM

Super Duper

That was a super duper well thought out response, please post more, that's exactly what I am talking about, lets win $ together!

So I just got done watching film on the Oakland @ San Fran game on my DVR because I plan on possibly fading both teams. Let me tell you the 49ers won but nobody deserved to win that game. I almost did feel sorry for Alex Smith because he got booed constantly at home, had his dog poop coach yelling at him, had shoddy play calling, and didn't get much from his teammates. Alex Smith is NOT a good QB, but sometimes he can fool you and do things right. I'd bring him in to be a backup QB to fill in a game here or there if your starter is injured but he's not starter material.

In that game though here is Jason Campbell's performance...
1st Quarter = 28 passing yards
2nd Quarter = 0 passing yards
3rd Quarter = 0 Passing yards
4th Quarter.... He completed another pass nearly midway through the 4th quarter... So you mean to tell me your starting QB has put up 28 passing yards through nearly 3.5 quarters? Then he nearly threw 2 picks off the DB's hands and then he does throw a pick. He's awful. Yeah the Raiders killed Denver last week but look at the QB 2 weeks prior, he's a poor man's version of Byron Leftwich and Byron is a backup QB so what does that say about Jason?

I see what you are saying with Buffalo but look at the Matchup. Fitzpatrick played a fantastic game last week and nearly beat the Ravens by himself... but KC's defense is good this year and Buffalo's defense is garbage and probably the worst in the league. If KC gets a lead they can run the ball and Buffalo can't stop the run. Jeff Saragin says the Chiefs should be 14 point favorites in this game but I do agree Fitzpatrick would actually worry me for a backdoor cover. Even if KC was up 10-14 points, I'd be scared that Fitzpatrick would bring out the MOOSE.

My thing with Miami is they are a decent team that is well coached... They will come to play and won't beat themselves. My main gripe with Cincinatti is the passing game. They are supposed to have this grand ariel attack but it's been grounded for much of this year besides last week. They put up points last week, it was on NFL replay and I want to watch that game to see what happened. Atlanta did have a lead and I am guessing played prevent? Their secondary isn't very good and that would make sense. Miami has decent corners and Cam Wake gets after the quarterback. It's Miami or nothing for me but it's probably a no play for me.

I actually thought Matt Stafford played a decent game ( maybe the best of his career) the last time the Redskins went to Detroit and the Lions broke their losing streak but everything else equal Mcnabb is a better player than Stafford. Detroit has quietly been covering spreads... I actually think both teams are underrated which is one of the only things that worries me. Washington's secondary sucks and the Lions defense sucks so I wonder about the over? The bottom line though is that Shanny is the better coach, Mcnabb is the better QB and Washington's defense is better than the Lions... and the Redskins are getting points. More often than not you win with the better QB, coach and defense.

I told you I was watching the Oakland vs 49ers game tonight and when I look at the 49ers I just think the of the Redskins last year... Jim Zorn... it wasn't IF he was going to get fired, it was when and that's what Singeltary is facing now... Jason Campbell... Alex Smith... I mean if you live in Sam Fran right now you are probably just so pissed off and done with the team, same as washington last year. You are just waiting for them to mess up, lose the game, do something stupid. The 49ers play calling is horrible. You could literally guess what they are going to do. Even with the new guy. I mean early in the game on 1st and 2nd downs the Raiders had 9 men on the line because they (guessed) run... it wasn't even that hard to guess they'd try and run the ball when Mike Singeltary won't let his OC call anything else.

ttrace35 · 10-27-10, 09:46 PM

Good job C and Super. Next week, can we please add Cutlet to that fade list??

C-Gold · 10-27-10, 09:50 PM

Killcutler.com will always be a popular site after he faces a strong pass rush. The Giants not only injured Cutlet, but they injured his backup too ( and Romosexual). Seattle pounded him... Washington's pass rush isn't good but Me-angelo hall picked him off.

ttrace35 · 10-27-10, 09:57 PM

Anybody know cutlet record against the spread? Cant be good.

Super Duper · 10-27-10, 10:05 PM

well I am going to watch the KC vs Jax matchup again (reluctantly since I lost a decent sized wager on it lol) to get a better feel for why I think the way I do. I'll talk to you more about this upcoming game with buf tomorrow.

I am also looking into betting the Titans. I can't get past the fact that Sd is a little like Dallas this year, where every week people think "this is the week," and it never comes. Tennessee is a good team. They rocked Big Blue in NY, the got by Big D. They figured out that Philly can;t cover deep last week and fired like 6 deep bals to Britt and he was unstoppable. The one thing that might keep me from it is that as the game goes on, the chargers get better on defense it seems. Even though I sort of like Kerry Collins, and I think he's gonna start this week prior to a bye, I can see his luck running out and "this being the week" for SD. LMAO at me reversing myself possibly for the reason I gave not to bet SD. I'll look more into that tomorrow.

C-Gold · 10-27-10, 10:10 PM

This is the week for the 49ers, this is the week for the Vikings, this is the week for the Chargers, this is the week for the Cowboys... People keep waiting on these teams to be what they were last year, and keep losing money.

The Titans didn't rock the Giants in NY. NY moved the ball against them but had turnovers turnovers turnovers... A ball bouncing off Hakeen Nicks hands and it wasn't a high pass from Manning, it hit him in the numbers and was a pick in good field position for the Titans. Manning did throw a dumb hand grenade in the red zone that was a pick... Ahmad Bradshaw had 1 or 2 fumbles... but the Giants moved the ball and the Titans didn't do anything... I mean, you can't fault them, the Giants handed them the game and they took it and won... Solid coaching.

Ten @ Dallas was the same situation and I took the Titans +7 and said they might win ( and they did).

I just want some clarity on the QB position, and I think the Titans would be a great tease... I mean tease that up to double digits.

ttrace35 · 10-27-10, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by Super Duper

well I am going to watch the KC vs Jax matchup again (reluctantly since I lost a decent sized wager on it lol) to get a better feel for why I think the way I do. I'll talk to you more about this upcoming game with buf tomorrow.

I am also looking into betting the Titans. I can't get past the fact that Sd is a little like Dallas this year, where every week people think "this is the week," and it never comes. Tennessee is a good team. They rocked Big Blue in NY, the got by Big D. They figured out that Philly can;t cover deep last week and fired like 6 deep bals to Britt and he was unstoppable. The one thing that might keep me from it is that as the game goes on, the chargers get better on defense it seems. Even though I sort of like Kerry Collins, and I think he's gonna start this week prior to a bye, I can see his luck running out and "this being the week" for SD. LMAO at me reversing myself possibly for the reason I gave not to bet SD. I'll look more into that tomorrow.

Good point on that san diego/dallas analogy. I was thinking the same thing. I'm starting to feel that way about minnesota too. Maybe even N.O. Things change in the NFL so much from year to year. Are we giving some of these teams too much credit based on last years accomplishments?

C-Gold · 10-27-10, 10:22 PM

F-It I usually like betting 1PM games, but if I am up the Steelers is my favorite bet and I can chase or let it ride and put extra on them even though that line will probably be a pick or maybe even the Steelers favored at halftime.

Week 8 Plays
Washington +3 ( bought Hook)
Seattle +3 ( bought hook)
Titans +3.5
Steelers +1
All for 2.5 units.

4 road teams
4 better teams
4 teams getting points
I'd like to go 3-1, you can't win em' all, I'll probably get screwed in one game by one of the QB's ( Rivers or Brees) but whatever.

C-Gold · 10-28-10, 07:11 PM

Watching the Giants/Lions game and the Giants were moving the ball at will against Detroit, just like the Eagles were... I'm not impressed with the Lions D. Suh is doing well, I like Cliff Avril, but the tackling is still poor.

piecemaker · 10-28-10, 07:33 PM

Guys I am going to have to disagree with the washington pick. Guys I am done underestimating the lions and after seeing them play the giants as tough as they did on both offense and defense on the road i am gonna go with the lions. IDK if you guys are forgetting that Washington needed cutler to throw 4 ints to win by 3 points. This is going to be there 2nd game on the road and I dont see them beating a lions defense coming off the bye week and SUH is starting to get on fire and play better. Washingtons offense in my opinion is not going to be able to put up alot of points on the lions D.

piecemaker · 10-28-10, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by C-Gold

Watching the Giants/Lions game and the Giants were moving the ball at will against Detroit, just like the Eagles were... I'm not impressed with the Lions D. Suh is doing well, I like Cliff Avril, but the tackling is still poor.

Giants were moving the ball well but weren't scoring and seperating themselves until the 3rd quarter. And both the giants and eagles defenses have playmakers that washington (apart from moss) lack. I like torain and he will have a good game but the redskins arent going to score alot of points on this lions defense.

JW Cash · 10-28-10, 08:29 PM

Saints I feel will roll....a big Halloween for Brees.....

But i feel you are right with the Vikings getting crushed...thats a given...

Postman78 · 10-28-10, 08:34 PM

Originally posted by piecemaker

Guys I am going to have to disagree with the washington pick. Guys I am done underestimating the lions and after seeing them play the giants as tough as they did on both offense and defense on the road i am gonna go with the lions. IDK if you guys are forgetting that Washington needed cutler to throw 4 ints to win by 3 points. This is going to be there 2nd game on the road and I dont see them beating a lions defense coming off the bye week and SUH is starting to get on fire and play better. Washingtons offense in my opinion is not going to be able to put up alot of points on the lions D.

i couldntve said it any better i agree with you 100% on that lions whoop the skins nothin against you c,i just feel really good about det and pit bol

C-Gold · 10-28-10, 09:21 PM

I'm shocked my book doesn't even have a line up for the Vikings/Pats game yet... It's freaking Thursday. The world stops for Favre?

One thing I will admit is that both the Lions and Redskins are probably underrated by the public at this point, but Washington has a better coach, quarterback and defense than the Lions at this point and are getting 3 points if you buy the hook. More often than not you win when all 3 of those stars align. Mcnabb is not very interception prone, Stafford is still young and playing as a favorite at home and could create some turnovers.

Washington's defense sucks on paper, but they have played some top quarterbacks and offenses which push their paper ratings down... that happens when you play Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Dallas, Houston, teams with firepower. I'm not saying they are good, but they aren't as bad as they are on paper.

I still say Washington is about a 9-7 team and Detroit is about a 6-10 team and Washington is getting the points. I really don't care about bye weeks. Some teams do come out of them with energy, but some teams come out of them flat.

C-Gold · 10-28-10, 09:27 PM

The Saints won't be able to run the ball at all vs Pittsburgh. It's going to be Drew Brees dropping back 40+ times trying to decode the Steelers defense, and the best defense in the league will have that added advantage of knowing it's a pass play over and over and over and be able to work in some more exotic blitzes. Last year the Saints scored points but they were good at moving the chains on 1st and 2nd downs, they actually weren't as good as you'd think at converting 3rd and long. The Saints running game, offensive line, and defense aren't as good as they were last year. Instead of being a what, 14-2 team this years Saints would be lucky to go 10-6 while Pitt is about a 13-3 team this year.

Saints secondary is not what it was
Saints O-Line is not as good
Saints running game is not as good and will put NO in harder 3rd down situations
Saints weren't great at 3rd and longs last year, I expect a lot of 3rd and longs on MNF
Brees wasn't great vs the Browns or 49ers 3-4 this year, Pittsburghs 3-4 is much better

piecemaker · 10-28-10, 09:45 PM

Originally posted by C-Gold

I'm shocked my book doesn't even have a line up for the Vikings/Pats game yet... It's freaking Thursday. The world stops for Favre?

One thing I will admit is that both the Lions and Redskins are probably underrated by the public at this point, but Washington has a better coach, quarterback and defense than the Lions at this point and are getting 3 points if you buy the hook. More often than not you win when all 3 of those stars align. Mcnabb is not very interception prone, Stafford is still young and playing as a favorite at home and could create some turnovers.

Washington's defense sucks on paper, but they have played some top quarterbacks and offenses which push their paper ratings down... that happens when you play Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Dallas, Houston, teams with firepower. I'm not saying they are good, but they aren't as bad as they are on paper.

I still say Washington is about a 9-7 team and Detroit is about a 6-10 team and Washington is getting the points. I really don't care about bye weeks. Some teams do come out of them with energy, but some teams come out of them flat.

We will have to agree to disagree on this one... and my bookie doesnt have the vikings vs pats line up yet... guess they are waiting for official word on favre starting?

C-Gold · 10-29-10, 05:53 AM

Yeah but how often do we get to Thursday/Friday and not have a line for a game?

xxxvince · 10-29-10, 06:17 AM

good stuff.. thanks for the info

C-Gold · 10-29-10, 08:26 PM

Mike Greenberg from Mike & Mike is like 2-10 ATS and he picked San Diego -3.5. He said the Chargers are better than people think and the Titans are worse than people think. I couldn't disagree more. The Chargers are living off of their name from the last 5 years. Their receivers are injured and don't practice. A few years ago LT was still more in his prime and their O-Line was top notch and they had a dream coaching staff of Mary, Cam Cameron and Wade Phillips coaching the most talented team in the league. Last year their O-Line and running game got worse but they had a platoon of 6'5 receivers that were tough to match up against and they exploited you. Now those receivers are hurt and injured and Rivers is chucking passes to guys like Patrick Crayton.

Tennessee on the other hand has an underrated defense. They rotate 8 guys on their D-Line to stay fresh during the game. Cortland Finnegan is a pro bowl corner, and Verner is a front runner to win DROY and looks like a solid above average corner. The Titans have one of the 3 best offensive lines in the NFL, they have in my opinion the best Offensive Lineman in the NFL, they have the best running back in the NFL, and the 2nd best coach in the NFL.

The fact that 2-10 ATS Mike Greenberg took SD makes me feel better about the Titans pick.

RustedVegas · 10-30-10, 08:20 AM

DEN flew farther because SF left for London right after the game at Carolina. Both teams have been in London all week so their bodies have adjusted to the time change.

vboyt · 10-30-10, 08:46 AM

nice writeup

C-Gold · 10-31-10, 01:32 PM

St Louis 2nd half Pick em ( 1 unit)

I would have added them before the game but I didn't get home in time from Halloween.... It might end up costing me money.

C-Gold · 10-31-10, 01:51 PM

ADD
Green Bay 2nd half +5 ( 1 unit)

I was 8-2-1 in NCAA football yeterday!

ttrace35 · 10-31-10, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by C-Gold

St Louis 2nd half Pick em ( 1 unit)

I would have added them before the game but I didn't get home in time from Halloween.... It might end up costing me money.

No blackberry C?

C-Gold · 10-31-10, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by ttrace35

No blackberry C?

No blackberry and no iphone, I'm C(heap)-Gold

but looks like this STL 2nd half will give me some money... I'm probably going to do New England too.

C-Gold · 10-31-10, 03:01 PM

ADD

Patriots -6 ( 1 unit)

ebbearsfb1 · 10-31-10, 03:13 PM

awesome write ups good luck today

ebbearsfb1 · 10-31-10, 05:54 PM

Can't get a break, not looking good for these games

ebbearsfb1 · 10-31-10, 06:00 PM

God can't win a damn bet today.... blown covers by pats and titans d is trash now

C-Gold · 10-31-10, 06:42 PM

Yeah tell me about it, my worst week yet.