Some plays I like with some thoughts. Figured I'd toss out some games that haven't been beaten to death yet. Feel free to offer your thoughts, although I'd prefer "I'm going the opposite way because of [explanation and evidence]" instead of "Den -3 is a lock and I'm betting my kids on them."
Raiders +3.5 (-110)
Risk 2u to win 1.81u
My second favorite line of the year came back in my first week of doing this. Raiders +3.5 vs the Bears. 80% of public money was on the Bears, the Raiders were at home, I had the 3, I got reduced vig, and oh yeah, the Bears sucked. I still say if Griese hadn't gotten hurt which allowed Rex Grossman to forget he was Rex Grossman and hit Berrian for a 50-yard TD against a solid pass defense I would have won that bet. Alas, I lost it, and now amazingly enough, almost the exact same situation has presented itself to allow me to redeem myself. The facts:
Denver is not a good team. They're not terrible, but they're not good, and they're certainly not nearly a TD favorite over the Raiders (who actually are a terrible team) on a neutral field. Also, Oakland matches up great with Denver. Their strength on offense is running, and their strength on defense is against the pass. Denver's strength on offense is the pass and their strength on defense is the pass. This levels the playing field a little bit. Toss in the HFA and I'm loving the Raiders to cover and...gasp....win?
Raiders 20-17
Total suggestion: Not a play for me (yet), but this game should feature a lot of running much like last game when the teams combined for a crazy 381 yards. Running drains the clock, and if one team takes a big lead, expect the running to persist for the winning team and the inept pass offense/staunt pass defense of the Raiders to prevent the ball being moved fluidly down the field through the air. Take the under 41.5
Panthers -2.5 (-120)
Risk 2u to win 1.67u
The 49ers getting less than 3 points on the road to anybody is a complete and utter joke. Them beating the Cardinals last week is not evidence that they don't suck, but rather that the Cardinals have a nasty habit of inconsistent play. (#1 in variance according to DVOA). This 49ers team is the worst team in the NFL and it's not even remotely close. They can't pass, they can't stop the run, and they can't stop the pass. They can't really run the ball either, but with the worst pass offense in the league (an embarrassing 5.12 yards per attempt and 51.1% completion percentage), you wonder if they'd be better off having Michael Robinson take the snap from shotgun and running the option with Gore every single down. Carolina isn't a good team, but they are clearly better than SF, and they are at home. They win this game easily.
Panthers/49ers O35
Risk 1u to win 0.91u
Totals like 35 should be reserved for games that feature teams like the Ravens, Chiefs, Titans, and Redskins. These teams have poor offenses and good defenses. No game that features two bottom ten defenses should ever have a total this low. I don't care how pathetic the offenses are.
Panthers 24-17
Vikings -3.5 (-110)
Risk 1u to win .91u
I'm a little wary of this pick, only because the Vikings are very one-dimensional on both sides of the ball. They run, and they stop people from running. Rumor has it the Vikes are petitioning the league to put a net 7 feet over the field to prevent the ability to throw the ball. Anyways, Detroit's strengths are through the air, and they are actually pretty solid at stopping the run. Still, the Vikings are a much better team than the Lions, and a win at home would make them heavy favorites to claim the 6th and final playoff spot.
Car Team Offense:
YPG - 290.9 (25th)
RYPG - 113.2 (14th)
PYPG - 177.7 (28th)
PPG - 15.7 (27th)
3rd down % - 34.6 (28th)
1st downs - 178 (28th...car is 3rd in the league however in first downs due to penalties w/ 22, so if you give them the league avg in 1st downs due to pens,11, they would be tied for 30th in first downs)
take away carolina's first game of the year against stl, & they drop to 30th in ypg, 17th in rypg, & 30th in ppg
carolina is also 7th in the nfl in pen yds
SF Team Offense:
YPG - 235 (32nd)
RYPG - 89.1 (26th)
PYPG - 145.9 (32nd)
PPG - 13.6 (32nd)
3rd down % - 27.3 (32nd)
1st downs - 147 (32nd)
in your defense, both teams rank in the bottom half of the league defensively in ypg, rypg, pypg, & ppg
You know, there's a reason I only put a single unit on this game. The more I looked at stats and whatnot, the less I like my bet. The Panthers are averaging 12.25 points a game since Delhomme got injured, and are just 3-4-1 on the total 35 since then.
Meh, I think it's possible the suckitude of the offenses might be enough to outweigh the suckitude of the defenses. Please to be a 20-17 game?
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Some plays I like...
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