Can you hear that YELP YELP YELP? Joe public kicking his dog after losing his paychec

head_strong · 10-23-10, 11:59 PM

There are only 2 road favorites out of the 13 games, the Steelers and the 49ers over the winless Panthers. Leaning Steelers in this one...gl

thechaoz · 10-24-10, 12:10 AM

This line is really fishy to me. Seem likes steelers should be more then -3, almost a bait here. Under should be solid.

pittmatt80 · 10-24-10, 12:37 AM

I don't think you should take Miami the public does win some every now and again otherwise they wouldn't bet at all. I really like the Ravens though. Also the Browns are not as bad as their record is a late turn over is only reason Steelers covered last week with rookie QB in. Good Luck

rsnnh12 · 10-24-10, 01:52 AM

The Dolphins have pretty much abandoned the Wildcat.... it hadn't been effective at all recently. And since when are Minnesota and a banged-up GB team good?

I think the Steelers roll here, and set out to prove that they are the best team in the NFL. I think the Dolphins will be lucky to score more than 17 points, which I think the Steelers should definitely be able to hit.

Steelers 24, Dolphins 14

Like your other picks though. BOL

khaden · 10-24-10, 02:05 AM

I think your reasoning on the Pitt game is off. Miami will struggle to score against pitts d and Pitt should win by a touchdown or more

sideloaded · 10-24-10, 03:58 AM

Hope your right about Miami.

todd24kb · 10-24-10, 04:30 AM

Feel the same way for all bets xcept Carolina.

Yes, I think Miami wins the game SU

mikejamm · 10-24-10, 04:32 AM

Nice insight C gold, but you forgot about one thing..... a healthy Hines Ward and the big kuhuna quarter back killer..... Troy Polamalu! Nuff said! Steelers win this one easy bro!

statnerds · 10-24-10, 04:58 AM

You realize that Pit played four games without their starting QB right? Are you seriously going to use the Steelers' team that played the first 4 games with the one that played last week?

I bet Miami on Tuesday at -110, just so we are clear. As long as Miami comes out throwing against a D-line with one guy under the age of 30. Overall Steelers defense is old and can be thrown on.

The Wildcat is fukkin dead in the NFL, unless the guy running can throw the ball. Otherwise, defenses just attack as if they know it is a run 99% of the time. If Brown runs it today, there will be 10 Steelers up his ass, got to leave one guy in coverage.

I really thought Baltimore would be 16.5 point favorites. Buffalo is terrible. However, you do understand DD Faves in the NFL are under 45% ATS winners right?

No feeling on the Car game, but man they suck. How many garbage teams can there be in the NFL?

Probably end up on the Over in the Dallas game, although their pass protection is balls and the Giants D-line is on fire.

and to get more off topic, why aren't the Broncos favored by 10?

Poppa Catfish · 10-24-10, 05:40 AM

Originally posted by statnerds

You realize that Pit played four games without their starting QB right? Are you seriously going to use the Steelers' team that played the first 4 games with the one that played last week?

I bet Miami on Tuesday at -110, just so we are clear. As long as Miami comes out throwing against a D-line with one guy under the age of 30. Overall Steelers defense is old and can be thrown on.

The Wildcat is fukkin dead in the NFL, unless the guy running can throw the ball. Otherwise, defenses just attack as if they know it is a run 99% of the time. If Brown runs it today, there will be 10 Steelers up his ass, got to leave one guy in coverage.

I really thought Baltimore would be 16.5 point favorites. Buffalo is terrible. However, you do understand DD Faves in the NFL are under 45% ATS winners right?

No feeling on the Car game, but man they suck. How many garbage teams can there be in the NFL?

Probably end up on the Over in the Dallas game, although their pass protection is balls and the Giants D-line is on fire.

and to get more off topic, why aren't the Broncos favored by 10?

SHHHHHH, most teams can beat the Ravens with their third string qb. Steelers are just average

Just for the record, Dolphins could end up winning this game, but the reasons put here are questionable.

And I believe the Raiders are smaller dogs than you expect due to their history in Denver. Even with horrific qbs like J Russel, they still compete year in year out.

pat venditto · 10-24-10, 05:54 AM

Good writeup pal I like the picks.

jonmic · 10-24-10, 06:54 AM

Nice analysis, the line is looking low which makes me think Miami is the play

TheCommish · 10-24-10, 07:18 AM

Can't see Miami doing anything against the steelers D. Ben should have most of the rust off now. Sorry, but no matter how I look at it, I cannot see Miami winning this.

Like the Baltimore pick though.

SF/CAR -- wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole. two bad teams. flip a coin.

C-Gold · 10-24-10, 08:32 AM

But the point is that everybody that knows anything about football knows this...
- The Steelers have maybe the best defense in the NFL
- The Steelers fared very well to go 3-1 without big ben.
- Big Ben is better than Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon

But it's not that freaking simple.
A) The Steelers blew out two bad teams but keep in mind they were two bad teams ( Yes, Colt Mccoy Browns are bad) and it took a late 4th quarter touchdown to cover last week. I was on the right side of Pitt the last 3 weeks in a row, trust me, the book want action on Pitt this week.
B) The Steelers had close games with the "decent/good" teams they played. Did you see them vs the Ravens? Their offense didn't do shit. They had to win in freaking overtime vs Atlanta, and their defense is nothing special.
C) Big Ben is going to be god and will come in in mid season from and transform an offense averaging 291 YPG... Yeah maybe eventually, but this is his 2nd game back... he wasn't overly impressive last week and this will be a tough road game in Miami. I actually wanted to fade him his first game back because I knew EVERYBODY wanted to take him and that the books would probably shade the line... Last week was bet on Big Ben week again, this week there is no gift on him.

You say the Wildcat is dead, but Miami started it and is the best at running it. Ronnie Brown and Rickey Williams are ideal for it, and they execute it the best. The whole point of the Wilcat was that Miami had a shitty offensive line a couple of years ago and didn't want to run the ball on 1st down get 1 yard, run the ball on 2nd down and get 1 yard, and then be stuck in 3rd and 8... They figured by trying this gimmeck out they could get 3-4 or more yards by running the "wildcat". Then instead of being in 3rd and 8, they could be in a much more managable 3rd and 3... It's been a smashing success.

and with Pittsburgh so good at stopping the run and applying pressure on 3rd and long, I actually like Miami's unconventional offense vs Pitt more so than an equally talented conventional offense vs Pitt.

I think Pittsburgh has been doing well this far, and has exceeded expectations without Big Ben, but the people that think that right now him coming back will make their team 50% better are foolingthemselves... THERE IS NOT A DOMINANT TEAM IN THE NFL RIGHT NOW so stop trying to make Pittsburgh that team. They were freaking 8-8 with a poor offensive line that almost got Big Ben Killed last year. 3-1 was nice, they did beat a decent Tennesse team and a decent Atlanta team in overtime... Now they go to play a decent Miami team who is battle tested. I do think Minnesota is a good team, New England, the Jets, and I do think the Packers are a good team and Miami fought and went 2-2 with those guys, dominated the Patriots minus special teams... Miami is going to "shock" people because everybody is soooooooo sold on the Idea that Pittsburgh is the best team in the NFL ANDDDDDDD they get Big Ben back so their offense will magically be 50% better.... It's a lock right? Nope. Everybody thinks that and when everybody thinks something they are usually wrong. I could see some big ben turnovers when he dances around behind that line and Cameron Wake is chasing him around. The Books opened at Pittsburgh -3 and haven't even moved the line because they WANT YOU to bet on Pittsburgh. Just don't cry fix when this game is over and don't say somebody didn't warn you.

Peace

Richkas · 10-24-10, 08:36 AM

Originally posted by C-Gold

The books have been cooking this year and Joe Public has had a blood bath. If you simply played all dogs in the NFL you'd be ahead and the books are killing it this year as teasers are being ripped up and favorites are getting smacked. Here's the fade the public picks this week.

#1 sucker bet is the Pittsburgh Steelers.. FOOLS GOLD SUCKER BET
Take Miami +3!

- The Steelers defense looks good ( I agree)
- The Steelers did well to go 3-1 without Big Ben ( I agree)
and everybody in America agrees they are a contender...but that doesn't mean they win every game!
- I took Pitt over Tampa ( that was a gift), I took them last week to beat the Browns ( that was nice) but faded them against the Ravens ( you want to fade them this week)

Pitt beat a bad CLE team by 18
Lost to a good Ravens team by 3 at home
Destroyed a weak Tampa team by 25
Beat the Titans by 8
Beat the Falcons in OT

So Pitt beat two crappy teams, and had close games with decent teams....

Miami beat a bad Buffalo team by 5, and went 2-2 vs good teams... Jets, NE, GB, MINN... That's NOT an easy schedule..

Everybody is hyping up big ben, but I actually wanted to fade him last week to be "rusty". The Steelers offense hasn't be impressive without him, and he's still coming back and the Miami Defense is underrated, and the offense matches up decently vs Pitt.... You can't run on Pitt, nobody can but the wildcat will get them in better 3rd and short situations. Miami will fight in this game and might even win outright and kill the public.

#2
San Fran is a West Coast team traveling East for a 1 PM Start... Nuff said
San Fran is a dog that won outright that is favored the following week
Alex Smith is a bad QB
Mike Singeltary is a bad coach
A Healthy Matt Moore gives Carolina a better chance to win.... Both defenses are statistically similar, Carolina has a good O-Line and 2 solid backs and Matt Moore is honestly better than Alex Smith... Smith can do some things that Moore can't do but Moore is a better game manager that should produce less turnovers... Carolina stuns the big underachaieving San Fran team.

#3
Ravens Blow out a bad Buffalo team. Buffalo will struggle to get 1st downs, and the Ravens will just keep running the ball and keep a big lead. It will be a defensive oriented blowout. Don't let laying all those points scare you, it's a huge mismatch.

#4
The Giants are bad, the Giants are good, the Giants are....?
Dallas is good, Dallas is bad... Dallas is...?

Dallas is a lazy, undisciplined, underachieving team severly lacking leadership... They thing they can just show up to games and win because they have "talent", and then end up losing. They are a 1-4 team that still celebrates Touchdowns like they won the freaking superbowl. They are a big sad joke, but America is going to get whipsawed around with the Giants. The Public wants to take the Giants with the FG, but the turn it on turn it off cowboys will turn it on this game and win.

Miami +3 ( Fools Gold Sucker Bet)
Carolina +3
Ravens -13
Dallas -3

2.5 units on each of the picks.

Steelers and Ravens cover, sorry

C-Gold · 10-24-10, 08:41 AM

Carolina...
Yes, they haven't been good, but their starting QB has been out. I think Matt Moore is better than people think, I think their O-Line is better than people think especially if Jeff Otah plays, I think their running backs are good and people know that. Their defense has statistically been what San Frans has been.

on the other hand I think there are still people in denial that San Fran is a bad team... San Fran won't go 0-2, San Fran can't go 0-3, I'll chase because San Fran can't go 0-4 blah blah blah. How's that working out?

They have a bad QB and most people know it
Their offensive structure led by the head coach and OC is designed to fail... I blame some of Smiths failures on coaching
and the head coach is a shoddy mess... he should coach college football if he wants to coach

The 49ers have talent, but they have poor QB play and piss poor coaching and that weakens the entire team. Bad things happen to teams like that, teams with poor QB play and poor coaching fall short of expectations... teams with good coaching and good QB play beat expectations to the upside.

Carolina has two of my favorite trends working for them today, and I think they have a better than 50% chance of winning outright today so I'll gladly take the 3 points.

rsnnh12 · 10-24-10, 09:09 AM

But the Wildcat IS dead. They've run it only 16 times this entire season, averaging 1.7 YPC, and 1 throw that was incomplete. They didn't run it once last week in Green Bay. Also, the Dolphins didn't try it once the last time they played the Steelers.

Big Ben without a doubt makes this offense better. I don't think the Dolphins have an answer for Hines Ward, Mendenhall, and especially Heath Miller.

Sorry C Gold, but I don't see any reason why Miami wins this game, unless the Steelers decide not to show up

C-Gold · 10-24-10, 09:19 AM

Originally posted by rsnnh12

But the Wildcat IS dead. They've run it only 16 times this entire season, averaging 1.7 YPC, and 1 throw that was incomplete. They didn't run it once last week in Green Bay. Also, the Dolphins didn't try it once the last time they played the Steelers.

Big Ben without a doubt makes this offense better. I don't think the Dolphins have an answer for Hines Ward, Mendenhall, and especially Heath Miller.

Sorry C Gold, but I don't see any reason why Miami wins this game, unless the Steelers decide not to show up

Overall or this week? How's his timing and rythem going to be? Does timing between quarterbacks and receivers matter or is that all just a big joke? How good was Favre's timing when he came right back? How do you feel about being on the most public play of the week, betting with your money with some really stupid people? Does that scare you?

4TH AND STUPID · 10-24-10, 09:32 AM

well, naturally, all the suckers on pitts will come into this thread and say how shit your pick is.

what else would one expect? lol .

MIAMI wins this game. i love all your picks minus buffalo. i think that SURELY this pathetic team coming off a bye week and playing a 1pm game needs to have some sort of focus. fitzpatrick has this offense much more competitive than edwards. i think buffalo might give baltimore a random scare.

rsnnh12 · 10-24-10, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by C-Gold

Overall or this week? How's his timing and rythem going to be? Does timing between quarterbacks and receivers matter or is that all just a big joke? How good was Favre's timing when he came right back? How do you feel about being on the most public play of the week, betting with your money with some really stupid people? Does that scare you?

Overall, and this week. He was throwing 600 passes a week during his suspension, so his arm is fine. Look what happened with Brady and Branch last week... haven't played together in YEARS, and immediately had their chemistry back. Big Ben hadn't thrown to Hines and Miller in what, 2 months? And they've had almost 3 weeks to practice too.... the timing should be fine for the most part, although I do expect a couple of awful throws from Ben. Favre is 9000 years old, Ben is mid-20s. I'm okay with being on the most public play, because bettors don't decide the outcome of the game, the players do. The better team here is the Steelers, so they are who I will put my money on, and with confidence.

No matter what some people here like to think, no linemaker in the world knows what will happen on Sunday, so public plays/RLM are pretty useless to base a bet on IMO. Does it help? Sure. But I won't base my pick on that.

Better teams that match up well will win more often than not, and I will bet that with confidence

C-Gold · 10-24-10, 09:39 AM

but Buffalo's defense sucks... The Ravens offense doesn't do much as far as being creative, but Cam Cameron will just see it as what it is and just overpower the Bills with the run game and some timely passes. No need to do anything tricky.

On the other side of the ball Buffalo is a mess, and won't have much of a chance at Baltimore. It's going to be a Ravens win by 20+ points.

DennisT · 10-24-10, 09:47 AM

All over Baltimore. Will shut Buffalo out and cover the 13. lol all!

C-Gold · 10-24-10, 09:51 AM

Originally posted by DennisT

All over Baltimore. Will shut Buffalo out and cover the 13. lol all!

The Jocks will beat the Harvard nerd into submission.

Some guys gang banger types on the Baltimore Ravens defense that can't even spell or properly pronounce their names correctly will pummel a guy Ryan Fitzpatrick that went to Harvard and could probably work for NASA. AND we'll make money on it

Let's do this

ebbearsfb1 · 10-24-10, 09:53 AM

[quote][The Steelers had close games with the "decent/good" teams they played. Did you see them vs the Ravens? Their offense didn't do shit. They had to win in freaking overtime vs Atlanta, and their defense is nothing special.
/QUOTE]

did you see who their quarterbacks were????

obviously those games would be close, one was dixons first start

and against tennessee the score wasn't as close as the game play,

c gold what do you think the score will be then?

Rio DiNero · 10-24-10, 09:55 AM

I lean Miami also, Miami played Pitt tough last year. I think this game comes down to a field goal, and I would feel a lot better with +3.5.

ebbearsfb1 · 10-24-10, 09:58 AM

Miami played Pitt tough last year.

hard to compare to last year, cause troy and aaron smith didn't play in that game

C-Gold · 10-24-10, 09:58 AM

[quote=ebbearsfb1;7044145]

[The Steelers had close games with the "decent/good" teams they played. Did you see them vs the Ravens? Their offense didn't do shit. They had to win in freaking overtime vs Atlanta, and their defense is nothing special.
/QUOTE]

did you see who their quarterbacks were????

obviously those games would be close, one was dixons first start

and against tennessee the score wasn't as close as the game,

So tell me it's a lock... He's certainly better than those garbage black quarterbacks right? Because Ben Roethlisburger will be in mid season from after the rapist police let him go?

Charlie Batch actually filled in quite nicely. Dennis Dixon is a project, but how much more do you think Big Ben is going to give you over what Batch did in Tampa? Batch did alright and better than what he could have done or should have done.

This game should be more like that low scoring Titans/Steelers game in which the Titans killed themselves with penalties and lost 19-11 except Miami will do better and possibly even win outright.

Just don't bet your whole paycheck on the Steelers and Rape-lis-burger

C-Gold · 10-24-10, 10:02 AM

Looking at taking Arizona +7 at 4PM too. The Public is most likely going to lose on the Seahags Seacocks laying all those points.

brxbmbers42 · 10-24-10, 10:03 AM

just had a vision while i was in the shower. miami beats pitt.

ebbearsfb1 · 10-24-10, 10:04 AM

i am a huge steeler fan watch every game, and know when to bet them or just lay off,

why are you bringing up race? it has nothing to do with this...

and yes roethlisburger is a lot better than dennis dixon, and charlie batch

Lockitup1x · 10-24-10, 10:06 AM

Originally posted by TheCommish

Sorry, but no matter how I look at it, I cannot see Miami winning this.

So are you going to pound Pitt ML?

C-Gold · 10-24-10, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by ebbearsfb1

i am a huge steeler fan watch every game, and know when to bet them or just lay off,

why are you bringing up race? it has nothing to do with this...

and yes roethlisburger is a lot better than dennis dixon, and charlie batch

Why'd I bring up race, are they not black or something?
Why'd I bring up Rape? Did Big Ben not rape her or something?
Is Miami not in Florida?
Are you the PC police?
Is this not a gambler's forumn?

Are you Oprah or the white bitch who walked off set of the "View"? Does anybody watch the view? Is anything I said not true?

People that bet on Miami today will cash in, people that bet on the Steelers today will end up cursing Big Ben, or Mike Tomlin, or a Mendanhall fumble, or the referees, or some other guy... Bank it.

C-Gold · 10-24-10, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by Lockitup1x

So are you going to pound Pitt ML?

A lot of Joe Publics did pound the Pitt money line and you know what, the line still hasn't moved. What does that tell you? Who do you trust more... " PITTSBURGH CAN'T LOSE, THEY GET BIG BEN BACK, THEY ARE A LOCK" or Vegas?

The answer is simple.

rsnnh12 · 10-24-10, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by C-Gold

A lot of Joe Publics did pound the Pitt money line and you know what, the line still hasn't moved. What does that tell you? Who do you trust more... " PITTSBURGH CAN'T LOSE, THEY GET BIG BEN BACK, THEY ARE A LOCK" or Vegas?

The answer is simple.

.... I trust neither.... I trust the players. Vegas oddsmakers do not determine the outcomes of games, players do. Pitt is the better team, they should win. Sure, they could lose, but smart money is on the better team