Horrid 0-4 weekend last Sunday/Monday. I lost three of those games by a combined total of two and a half points - ouch. That put me down for the season by far, so this week's picks come with more hope than expectation...
Cincinnatti @ Atlanta
The Falcons have had the good fortune to play Arizona, San Francisco, Cleveland and the Benless Steelers. They've still allowed almost 70% pass completions and a close-to-league-worst 7.74 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan's reputation as an elite QB is beginning to look razor-thin (see what I did there?). The Bengals can be a hard team to trust, but off a mortifying home loss to Tampa and a bye week to brew on it I fancy this as just the kind of game where they get it done.
5 units Bengals +3.5
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San Francisco @ Carolina
I seem to have some sort of sick addiction to supporting the Panthers. In my defence this week, you could say "The 49ers squeak past Oakland at home and then they're favoured travelling to the east coast?". Or perhaps "The Panthers run the Saints close a couple of weeks ago and now they're home underdogs to a 1-5 team?". For what it's worth, Carolina boast the best defensive passer rating in football at the moment. They also 'boast' the league's worst yards-per-pass-attempt themselves. Still, with Steve Smith's likely return a minor boost, I take home advantage here and perhaps the Panthers will finally see an opponent miss a field goal or two (11-for-11 so far this season).
8 units Panthers +3
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St Louis @ Tampa Bay
The Rams road resume reeks. It consists of losses both times out, at Oakland and Detroit. I fancy Freeman and co in 91-degree Florida. No vig on this bet also appeals.
8 units Buccaneers -3
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New England @ San Diego
Looks like a passing shoot-out and while Patriots pass 'D' has been sieve-like the Chargers boast the NFL's second-best defensive passer rating. That may be deceptive since they haven't faced even one top-tier QB. Still, New England failed to win when heading west last season and may have more than one eye on next week's meeting with their own mephistopheles, Mangini. So, San Diego to finally avoid errors or bad luck and record a desperately needed win.
5 units Chargers -3
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Have a great weekend
Cincinnatti @ Atlanta
The Falcons have had the good fortune to play Arizona, San Francisco, Cleveland and the Benless Steelers. They've still allowed almost 70% pass completions and a close-to-league-worst 7.74 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan's reputation as an elite QB is beginning to look razor-thin (see what I did there?). The Bengals can be a hard team to trust, but off a mortifying home loss to Tampa and a bye week to brew on it I fancy this as just the kind of game where they get it done.
5 units Bengals +3.5
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San Francisco @ Carolina
I seem to have some sort of sick addiction to supporting the Panthers. In my defence this week, you could say "The 49ers squeak past Oakland at home and then they're favoured travelling to the east coast?". Or perhaps "The Panthers run the Saints close a couple of weeks ago and now they're home underdogs to a 1-5 team?". For what it's worth, Carolina boast the best defensive passer rating in football at the moment. They also 'boast' the league's worst yards-per-pass-attempt themselves. Still, with Steve Smith's likely return a minor boost, I take home advantage here and perhaps the Panthers will finally see an opponent miss a field goal or two (11-for-11 so far this season).
8 units Panthers +3
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St Louis @ Tampa Bay
The Rams road resume reeks. It consists of losses both times out, at Oakland and Detroit. I fancy Freeman and co in 91-degree Florida. No vig on this bet also appeals.
8 units Buccaneers -3
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New England @ San Diego
Looks like a passing shoot-out and while Patriots pass 'D' has been sieve-like the Chargers boast the NFL's second-best defensive passer rating. That may be deceptive since they haven't faced even one top-tier QB. Still, New England failed to win when heading west last season and may have more than one eye on next week's meeting with their own mephistopheles, Mangini. So, San Diego to finally avoid errors or bad luck and record a desperately needed win.
5 units Chargers -3
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Have a great weekend
