Anyone gonna take a chance on the Browns on the ML?

Ricki Roma · 10-20-10, 11:03 PM

I say the saints dont cover here maybe win but only by 7 points or less

eberetta1 · 10-20-10, 11:14 PM

I think the Saints are mad losing 2 games in a row. I think they have, I could be wrong. So, they definitely want to take it out on a team not in their caliber. It won't take back the 2 losses, but it will make them feel better, anyhows. I would take the Saints on the moneyline when it hits under -600.

terpkeg · 10-20-10, 11:15 PM

I have Ravens and Saints open in my survivor pool and didnt even think twice about taking the Ravens. Saints scare me.

lakerboy · 10-20-10, 11:15 PM

Originally posted by eberetta1

I think the Saints are mad losing 2 games in a row. I think they have, I could be wrong. So, they definitely want to take it out on a team not in their caliber. It won't take back the 2 losses, but it will make them feel better, anyhows. I would take the Saints on the moneyline when it hits under -600.

Saints won there last game versus the Bucs.

Lockitup1x · 10-20-10, 11:33 PM

Couldn't that just be a correction because they opened too high based on what the pointspread was doing?

secret007 · 10-21-10, 11:03 AM

I'm not gonna take them on ML. I'm taking them ATS....

mebaran · 10-21-10, 11:45 AM

I just don't like the Browns here at all. I looked at the lines like you did and have been trying to come up with some angle to make a case for the Browns, but I can't haha:

Browns have a rookie QB in McCoy starting.
Browns have some serious injury problems.
Saints run defense is tight right now.

Browns gameplan is to keep the game close, which I think they will do, but I'm just not seeing a win here. +13 would be my play if any.

JMUplayer · 10-21-10, 11:57 AM

Clev ML is like playing the lottery...you don't take +13 point dogs in the NFL on the ML.
You do take them vs. the spread.

rockaflocka · 10-21-10, 04:46 PM

browns have been competitive all year, seemingly they always play hard. They played the chiefs, bucs, falcons all tough. I think they cover but they're too banged up to take the ML. I like Hillis to hit over 100 rushing easily though

D3 Mighty Ducks · 10-21-10, 10:49 PM

Wow didn't even see this thread. I have Cleveland ML +516 for 200 hundos

stikymess · 10-21-10, 11:44 PM

Saints besides last week have played down to the competition, I would take the 13 or maybe wait and see if it crawls to 14 by game time.

zmas13 · 10-22-10, 11:39 AM

Originally posted by D3 Mighty Ducks

Wow didn't even see this thread. I have Cleveland ML +516 for 200 hundos

castle · 10-22-10, 11:48 AM

Browns ML? Nah. I don't play the lotto.

D3 Mighty Ducks · 10-22-10, 11:51 AM

Definitely worth a shot

slacker00 · 10-22-10, 11:54 AM

I made a small play on Browns +575 earlier in the week. Too much value to ignore. Saints getting too much love in this spot.

BettingWizard · 10-22-10, 05:23 PM

I don't see Colt Mccoy ever beating a legit team in the NFL, I don't care about his 281 yds passing last week. Browns are just crippled with injuries too. They barely moved the ball after Cribbs went out.

boscokid · 10-22-10, 05:34 PM

Good luck!

TheSportsBaron · 10-22-10, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by D3 Mighty Ducks

Wow didn't even see this thread. I have Cleveland ML +516 for 200 hundos

Are you saying you bet $20,000 on the Browns ML?

I don't see why all you people that like the Browns ML don't just take the 14 points they are getting.

Chance that the Browns win = .1%

Chance the Saints win but don't cover = A shit ton better

Baxter Man13 · 10-22-10, 06:09 PM

This is why i stayed away BUT...how can you go off of moneyline movements in the nfl when the lines are SOO high?

People are not going to bet -600 favorites, they are going to take a risk in value and attack a +600 underdog.....

In hockey the line movements works, but in the nfl with the lines being so high i dont see it being a factor....

...thoughts

Baxter Man13 · 10-22-10, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by slacker00

I made a small play on Browns +575 earlier in the week. Too much value to ignore. Saints getting too much love in this spot.

Proves my point...

rockaflocka · 10-22-10, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by BettingWizard

I don't see Colt Mccoy ever beating a legit team in the NFL, I don't care about his 281 yds passing last week. Browns are just crippled with injuries too. They barely moved the ball after Cribbs went out.

steelers are much better team than the saints, colt played well against very legit Defense

8ArIvd5 · 10-22-10, 07:21 PM

I'd take the points. It'd take 7 or 8 games for the Browns to beat the Saints.

hitman2010 · 10-22-10, 11:27 PM

good luck who ever bet on Browns ML.

onlooker · 10-22-10, 11:36 PM

No. But will take the Browns +13.

JR007 · 10-23-10, 12:04 PM

"SHARPS QUIET WITH SO MANY GAMES NEAR KEY NUMBER OF THREE
It's been a strange week in Las Vegas and Reno for NFL bettors. There are question marks at quarterback in a few places because of injuries. And, a full EIGHT games are either sitting on or within a half point of the magic number of 3 as we go to press.
As I've mentioned many times in the past, sharps (professional wagerers) will generally fade public action at a line of three because so many games land there. If squares (the public) support the favorite so much that the line goes to 3.5, then sharps will play the dog. If the squares for some reason line up on a high profile underdog, then sharps will take the favorite at 2.5
The public generally doesn't bet until the weekend. So, there hasn't been any action to fade!
A game I will make note of is Minnesota/Green Bay in the prime time matchup Sunday on NBC. That one opened at Green Bay -3. Sharps hit Minnesota plus the points early, driving the line down to Green Bay by 2.5. Otherwise, the three's are mostly sitting there waiting for something to happen.
That will force me to adjust my normal format. I don't want to say "here's another game at three, nothing's happening yet" over and over again. Let me list the games that are at three right now, then I'll only talk about other line moves and totals as we run through the schedule in rotation order.
First, here are the games at three at press time.
Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami
Atlanta (-3) vs. Cincinnati
Tennessee (-3) vs. Philadelphia
Chicago (-3) vs. Washington
San Francisco (-3) at Carolina
Tampa Bay (-3) vs. St. Louis
San Diego (-3) vs. New England
Remember that sharps tend to prefer underdogs. So, we may see sharp money on the 3-point underdogs Sunday in these highlighted games if the public doesn't act on the favorite. My sense from talking to sharps is that they're most interested in Philadelphia, Washington, and New England amongst that group.
Now, let's run through the card noting totals changes, or moves in games not on a three.
PITTSBURGH AT MIAMI: The opening total of 40 was bet up to 41, possibly with an expectation that Pittsburgh's offense will take steps forward each week as Ben Roethlisberger shakes off his rustiness.
CINCINNATI AT ATLANTA: An opening total of 42 is up a tick to 42½ Note that sharps bet Cincinnati (+4) on the opener down to the line of +3 that you're seeing currently.
JACKSONVILLE AT KANSAS CITY: It looks like Todd Bouman will quarterback the Jaguars...making this a tough game to put a number on. I'm seeing Kansas City -9 right now. Tough to lay that big a price with the Chiefs, and sharps aren't excited about investing in Bouman in a short preparation week.
PHILADELPHIA AT TENNESSEE: No move on the opening total of 42½. Tennessee's starting quarterback isn't locked in stone yet. Sharps will wait for news on that before acting.
WASHINGTON AT CHICAGO: No movement here either on the side or total since the openers. There's so much parity in the league right now that 3's are going to be common. And, oddsmakers have had several weeks to sharpen up their opening totals.
CLEVELAND AT NEW ORLEANS: Colt McCoy will get the start again for Cleveland. The Browns got early support at +14, and we're now seeing +13 everywhere. The total has dropped a point or 1½ points off an opener of 44½.
BUFFALO AT BALTIMORE: Big move on the total here, with an opener of 37 jumping up to 40. Baltimore tends to run up the score at home. Sharps didn't want to lay two touchdowns with them...but are basically investing in the Ravens offense anyway by betting Over the low total.
SAN FRANCISCO AT CAROLINA: The total is up a point from 34½ to 35½. I'm hearing this is a math move from the computer guys.
ST. LOUIS AT TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay is sitting at -3 right now because of early support at -1½ on the opener. The total hasn't moved.
ARIZONA AT SEATTLE: Some support for Seattle at -6 because of Arizona's poor road play. We're seeing 6½ now. Some of that was position taking though on the assumption the public would drive the line up to a touchdown. Wouldn't be surprised to see some buy back form sharps if the game moves to seven.
NEW ENGLAND AT SAN DIEGO: The total has dropped from 49 down to 47½. A lot of guys out here love betting Unders on anything at 48 or higher. San Diego's also had some trouble turning their stats into points because of turnovers and other issues.
OAKLAND AT DENVER: Denver was hit at -7, and is up to -8.5 because of skepticism about Oakland's quarterback situation. I wouldn't be surprised if this moves to -9 just because sportsbooks want to discourage two-team teaser action on Denver at less than a field goal. The total has dropped from 44 down to 41.5 on the same quarterback issues.
MINNESOTA AT GREEN BAY: No meaningful action on the total yet, which opened at 44.
NY GIANTS AT DALLAS: The total is down a tick in the Monday Night game, from 44.5 down to 44.
That's it for this week's look at sharp action. It's mostly been a look at non-action! You regulars know the game day drill. Sharps will fade the public. There will be a general trend toward dogs and Unders. If the public doesn't create any bandwagon line moves, we may see sharps step in on dogs and Unders on the lines you see above. "

hitman2010 · 10-23-10, 12:24 PM

broadway6 · 10-23-10, 12:47 PM

with that moneyline movement, how can you not take the Browns +13? public might even push it to +14

lakerboy · 10-24-10, 01:33 PM

Wish i took my own lean. They might not win but it looks good right now.

lyon804 · 10-24-10, 01:37 PM

Nice call LB. Wish I went with the Browns +ML but the +13 I already cashed it

$Burm$ · 10-24-10, 07:15 PM

FUNNY how when LB does these type of threads and loses everyone jumps in them and talks, but when he calls a +500 and over underdog winner there's not one person. Hell, people are still talking crap in his broncos one from last week and not in this one. What a joke.

LB

onlooker · 10-24-10, 10:49 PM

So who ended up taking it?. Nice lean LB. I hope you at least got on the spread.

tanner40 · 10-24-10, 11:09 PM

TheSportsBaron · 10-24-10, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by D3 Mighty Ducks

Wow didn't even see this thread. I have Cleveland ML +516 for 200 hundos

Don't spend that $1,032 in one place

Good call man

Shafted69 · 10-24-10, 11:14 PM

Didn't have the balls to play the ML, but I am still happy to have won with the points.

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