I went 3-4 on my bets last week, 7-7 on my picks overall... Meh didn't like last week too much, but I like this week much better!
Please, I really enjoy when people post responses so I'd appreciate some conversation here!
Firstly, I'll post my plays. Then, I will post my other thoughts and have my leans/picks for every game.
Falcons +1.5 @ Eagles
Last week, I was on the Eagles and I won. My reasoning was that Kolb was better than people make him out to be, and felt that the value was good last week. This week, it seems like people are jumping back on the Eagles bandwagon (or off of the Falcons one). Why? Beats me... Michael Turner has been having a good year... The Eagles have a bad run D. Broderick Bunkley is out for the season. Matt Ryan is coming home to play in front of his family, and I think the Falcons pull off the win vs the Eagles.
Falcons ML (Even) - 1 unit [will wait to see if I can at least get them +105 or something]
San Diego -9 @ St. Louis
The Chargers are coming off a very tough loss vs Oakland, meanwhile the Rams are coming off a big blowout vs the Lions... Which will be more impactful? I think the Rams can rebound - teams that get blownout tend to cover the next game, meanwhile the Chargers lost in division which tends to stick with teams moving forward. Although the Chargers have lost in all flukey ways, the fact remains that they have lost to the Raiders, Seahawks, and Chiefs (Chiefs aren't that good guys... but that's neither here nor there). The Rams will be pumped up to play at home and redeem themselves after a horrible loss vs Detroit, and I think they'll cover against the Chargers who have yet to be truly tested this year... Maybe the Rams aren't a great test, but maybe that'll make the Chargers overlook them? Ah well, I'm delving in to too many unrelated things that probably have no baring on the game...
Rams +9 (1 unit)
Chiefs +4.5 @ Texans
The Chiefs finally lost. Their reign as the NFL's hottest topic has ended... And now they will get beat to the ground. The Chiefs just lost the biggest game of their season... And are playing a Houston team that they just saw get massacred by the Giants. So what does this mean? The Chiefs could come out flat here - they are sitting on a division lead and are playing an opponent who they probably think aren't very good after last week. See what I mentioned about the Rams earlier? Teams that get blown out tend to cover the next week. I don't have the exact statistic, but there was some sickening statistic that showed that teams who get blown out but are favored the next week tend to cover a very high percent of the time. Count me in.
Texans -4.5 (2 units)
Colts -3 @ Redskins
This is just an example of talent winning out. The Redskins have been playing out of their minds, and the Colts have been underwhelming so far. Coming in to this game, the Colts are getting some players back (the Colts are never truly healthy... But Collie and Garcon should be better now) so their offense should be fully clicking. Peyton Manning is amazing under the lights. Peyton Manning is great heading in to the bye. Peyton Manning will win by more than a field goal against an overrated Washington team.
Colts -3 (1 unit)
Other games (no money on them as of now, could change)
Chicago -6 vs Seattle - Seattle has been very lucky this season. They suck. Cutler is coming back, he should be able to lead the Bears to win by at least a TD at home against one of the worst teams in the league.
Baltimore ML (+120) @ New England - the Ravens raped the Patriots (with Randy Moss) last year in the playoffs... Sure, no Ed Reed so let's forget about that... But the Ravens have been one of the best teams in the league this year, meanwhile the Pats have been god awful defensively and are losing their best offensive option. Bill is good off the bye, but the Ravens are too good this year and the Pats are not good enough.
Giants -10 vs Detroit - I'll keep this one short. The Giants are somehow looking good, and the Lions have been playing some very lucky football.. And now are going to be missing Calvin Johnson... How will they score without Megatron?
Steelers -14 vs Cleveland - I like Colt McCoy... But I like the Steelers defense, Big Ben coming back with something to prove, and Mike Tomlin off a bye. And oh yeah, the Browns suck.
Packers -3 vs Miami - Rodgers is supposed to play now.. Sure, the Dolphins are a cute team to pick but I'll take Aaron Rodgers at home vs a middle of the pack team any day of the week. The Packers need to remind people that they are still an elite team in the league, even with the injuries (Matthews is playing I heard?) so they should be able to stop the Dolphins... And I'll take Rodgers + Jennings + Driver to win at home by a good amount (over a TD)
Saints -4 @ Tampa Bay - the Saints need to prove to people that they are still the reigning champs. Tampa Bay is overrated, and they haven't been great at home lately. Saints by a TD.
Raiders +7 @ San Francisco - I like the 49ers, I really do... But people are getting ahead of themselves by placing them as 7 point favorites while being winless. They will win, but the chances of them winning by more than a TD aren't great. Oakland hasn't played poorly at all this year, and San Fran hasn't done anything of note.
Jets -3 @ Denver - the Broncos D has played very well this year... The Jets D is one of the best in the league. Which of those is more of a fluke? Jets should be able to continue to play great offense against this mediocre Broncos D, and win by a TD.
Cowboys +1.5 @ Minnesota - Favre is not a robot. He is aware of the circus that is going on around him. Tuesday, there is a meeting going on to see exactly what the league will do about this... And I can't help but think that this will effect Favre in some way. The Vikings are very good on paper, but why aren't the Cowboys seen as such? Cedric Griffin tore another ACL, so Romo (who hasn't been as bad as stats may suggest) should carry the Cowboys this week.
Jaguars +3 vs Titans - The Titans have looked good lately, but I've learned my lesson in betting against in-division underdogs... And the Jags are at home. I thought they were horrible, and got bit in the ass last week. Now I'm hopping aboard the bandwagon - just for the time being. Hard to find a team that is playing well, at home, in-division, as underdogs.
Recommendation: FADE MY PICKS. I am in the negative this year
. I do hope I will turn it around, but I enjoy posting my picks [even if they are bad]. Please comment on my picks and writeups!
Please, I really enjoy when people post responses so I'd appreciate some conversation here!
Firstly, I'll post my plays. Then, I will post my other thoughts and have my leans/picks for every game.
Falcons +1.5 @ Eagles
Last week, I was on the Eagles and I won. My reasoning was that Kolb was better than people make him out to be, and felt that the value was good last week. This week, it seems like people are jumping back on the Eagles bandwagon (or off of the Falcons one). Why? Beats me... Michael Turner has been having a good year... The Eagles have a bad run D. Broderick Bunkley is out for the season. Matt Ryan is coming home to play in front of his family, and I think the Falcons pull off the win vs the Eagles.
Falcons ML (Even) - 1 unit [will wait to see if I can at least get them +105 or something]
San Diego -9 @ St. Louis
The Chargers are coming off a very tough loss vs Oakland, meanwhile the Rams are coming off a big blowout vs the Lions... Which will be more impactful? I think the Rams can rebound - teams that get blownout tend to cover the next game, meanwhile the Chargers lost in division which tends to stick with teams moving forward. Although the Chargers have lost in all flukey ways, the fact remains that they have lost to the Raiders, Seahawks, and Chiefs (Chiefs aren't that good guys... but that's neither here nor there). The Rams will be pumped up to play at home and redeem themselves after a horrible loss vs Detroit, and I think they'll cover against the Chargers who have yet to be truly tested this year... Maybe the Rams aren't a great test, but maybe that'll make the Chargers overlook them? Ah well, I'm delving in to too many unrelated things that probably have no baring on the game...
Rams +9 (1 unit)
Chiefs +4.5 @ Texans
The Chiefs finally lost. Their reign as the NFL's hottest topic has ended... And now they will get beat to the ground. The Chiefs just lost the biggest game of their season... And are playing a Houston team that they just saw get massacred by the Giants. So what does this mean? The Chiefs could come out flat here - they are sitting on a division lead and are playing an opponent who they probably think aren't very good after last week. See what I mentioned about the Rams earlier? Teams that get blown out tend to cover the next week. I don't have the exact statistic, but there was some sickening statistic that showed that teams who get blown out but are favored the next week tend to cover a very high percent of the time. Count me in.
Texans -4.5 (2 units)
Colts -3 @ Redskins
This is just an example of talent winning out. The Redskins have been playing out of their minds, and the Colts have been underwhelming so far. Coming in to this game, the Colts are getting some players back (the Colts are never truly healthy... But Collie and Garcon should be better now) so their offense should be fully clicking. Peyton Manning is amazing under the lights. Peyton Manning is great heading in to the bye. Peyton Manning will win by more than a field goal against an overrated Washington team.
Colts -3 (1 unit)
Other games (no money on them as of now, could change)
Chicago -6 vs Seattle - Seattle has been very lucky this season. They suck. Cutler is coming back, he should be able to lead the Bears to win by at least a TD at home against one of the worst teams in the league.
Baltimore ML (+120) @ New England - the Ravens raped the Patriots (with Randy Moss) last year in the playoffs... Sure, no Ed Reed so let's forget about that... But the Ravens have been one of the best teams in the league this year, meanwhile the Pats have been god awful defensively and are losing their best offensive option. Bill is good off the bye, but the Ravens are too good this year and the Pats are not good enough.
Giants -10 vs Detroit - I'll keep this one short. The Giants are somehow looking good, and the Lions have been playing some very lucky football.. And now are going to be missing Calvin Johnson... How will they score without Megatron?
Steelers -14 vs Cleveland - I like Colt McCoy... But I like the Steelers defense, Big Ben coming back with something to prove, and Mike Tomlin off a bye. And oh yeah, the Browns suck.
Packers -3 vs Miami - Rodgers is supposed to play now.. Sure, the Dolphins are a cute team to pick but I'll take Aaron Rodgers at home vs a middle of the pack team any day of the week. The Packers need to remind people that they are still an elite team in the league, even with the injuries (Matthews is playing I heard?) so they should be able to stop the Dolphins... And I'll take Rodgers + Jennings + Driver to win at home by a good amount (over a TD)
Saints -4 @ Tampa Bay - the Saints need to prove to people that they are still the reigning champs. Tampa Bay is overrated, and they haven't been great at home lately. Saints by a TD.
Raiders +7 @ San Francisco - I like the 49ers, I really do... But people are getting ahead of themselves by placing them as 7 point favorites while being winless. They will win, but the chances of them winning by more than a TD aren't great. Oakland hasn't played poorly at all this year, and San Fran hasn't done anything of note.
Jets -3 @ Denver - the Broncos D has played very well this year... The Jets D is one of the best in the league. Which of those is more of a fluke? Jets should be able to continue to play great offense against this mediocre Broncos D, and win by a TD.
Cowboys +1.5 @ Minnesota - Favre is not a robot. He is aware of the circus that is going on around him. Tuesday, there is a meeting going on to see exactly what the league will do about this... And I can't help but think that this will effect Favre in some way. The Vikings are very good on paper, but why aren't the Cowboys seen as such? Cedric Griffin tore another ACL, so Romo (who hasn't been as bad as stats may suggest) should carry the Cowboys this week.
Jaguars +3 vs Titans - The Titans have looked good lately, but I've learned my lesson in betting against in-division underdogs... And the Jags are at home. I thought they were horrible, and got bit in the ass last week. Now I'm hopping aboard the bandwagon - just for the time being. Hard to find a team that is playing well, at home, in-division, as underdogs.
Recommendation: FADE MY PICKS. I am in the negative this year
. I do hope I will turn it around, but I enjoy posting my picks [even if they are bad]. Please comment on my picks and writeups!