I'm very, very marginally in profit on a record of 15-18 so far this season, two stupid 'parlays' not having helped.
This week, between finally losing my dearly loved cat and having a friend over from England, I've not had the usual time to devote to (cough) analysis - so there you go, I've got my excuses in early on this quartet of questionable picks:
Kansas City @ Houston
Kansas performed quite kreditably in their kontest at Indy last week, but still failed to kover. The Colts chose to run far more than usual and probably should have put the ball in Peyton's hands more often. The Texans may not go that route, but if they do then they at least have a running game worthy of the name, currently boasting a remarkable 5.12 yards per carry. For the Chiefs this is a second consecutive away game, and the suspicion remains - backed by my secret numbers - that they are a team still waiting to get found out.
5 units TEXANS -4.5
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Baltimore @ New England
New England can crave revenge as much as they like, and boast as formidable a home record as they, um, do - but Miami's special teams meltdown two weeks ago merely served to deflect attention from the Pats' defensive problems. Of course nobody would be monster surprised to see Brady and co make a point with a win here, but there are just too many red flags (eg: 32nd in the league in percentage of completions allowed, 32nd in the league on defensive 3rd downs) to bet on a win over a strong, balanced Baltimore.
5 units RAVENS +2.5
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Dallas @ Minnesota
Dallas got duped in losing to the Titans last week, deflected interceptions and all. They lost the turnover battle 3-0 yet were still tied at 27-27 late in the game. There's usually little value in backing the Texan media darlings, but losses like that may mask the surprising fact that on close examination the Cowboys appear to be simply better than their hosts this Sunday. Brett Favre looks awfully like the physically struggling QB with whom the Jets faded away two years ago, and a short week off a Monday Night trip can hardly help.
5 units COWBOYS +1.5
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Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Most people would say that Tennessee are the better of these two somewhat similar AFC South rivals. I wouldn't especially disagree. However, my special statistical model says that the Titans have over-achieved so far this season (last week's win at Dallas was constructed with a large helping of good fortune), and in struggling to follow those numbers I am comforted by the fact that this is a second road-trip for Vince and co. and the knowledge that the Jags won both meetings last season by more than two TDs.
3 units JAGUARS +3, 2 units JAGUARS moneyline
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This week, between finally losing my dearly loved cat and having a friend over from England, I've not had the usual time to devote to (cough) analysis - so there you go, I've got my excuses in early on this quartet of questionable picks:
Kansas City @ Houston
Kansas performed quite kreditably in their kontest at Indy last week, but still failed to kover. The Colts chose to run far more than usual and probably should have put the ball in Peyton's hands more often. The Texans may not go that route, but if they do then they at least have a running game worthy of the name, currently boasting a remarkable 5.12 yards per carry. For the Chiefs this is a second consecutive away game, and the suspicion remains - backed by my secret numbers - that they are a team still waiting to get found out.
5 units TEXANS -4.5
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Baltimore @ New England
New England can crave revenge as much as they like, and boast as formidable a home record as they, um, do - but Miami's special teams meltdown two weeks ago merely served to deflect attention from the Pats' defensive problems. Of course nobody would be monster surprised to see Brady and co make a point with a win here, but there are just too many red flags (eg: 32nd in the league in percentage of completions allowed, 32nd in the league on defensive 3rd downs) to bet on a win over a strong, balanced Baltimore.
5 units RAVENS +2.5
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Dallas @ Minnesota
Dallas got duped in losing to the Titans last week, deflected interceptions and all. They lost the turnover battle 3-0 yet were still tied at 27-27 late in the game. There's usually little value in backing the Texan media darlings, but losses like that may mask the surprising fact that on close examination the Cowboys appear to be simply better than their hosts this Sunday. Brett Favre looks awfully like the physically struggling QB with whom the Jets faded away two years ago, and a short week off a Monday Night trip can hardly help.
5 units COWBOYS +1.5
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Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Most people would say that Tennessee are the better of these two somewhat similar AFC South rivals. I wouldn't especially disagree. However, my special statistical model says that the Titans have over-achieved so far this season (last week's win at Dallas was constructed with a large helping of good fortune), and in struggling to follow those numbers I am comforted by the fact that this is a second road-trip for Vince and co. and the knowledge that the Jags won both meetings last season by more than two TDs.
3 units JAGUARS +3, 2 units JAGUARS moneyline
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