C-Gold Week 6 Breakdown, 6-1 in Week 5

Cris_from_Europe · 10-13-10, 08:13 PM

I'm liking the Pitt play .... like you say it should be a blowout ... Colt Mccoy vs Steelers D# jeez bad time to start you NFL career

also having a week off gave them enough time to get Big Ben ready for this one .... although its a division game laying this much might worry some cappers but rest assured Steelers will cover this spread !
I also like Indianapolis to cover Sunday night ... never bet against Payton Manning on a Sunday Night or Monday Night Game !
Another game I like and would like to hear your thoughts on is KC @ Houston -4.5 ... I think we are on different sides here because I believe Houston will cover this one ... Walter from walterfootball.com has this one as his GOM and he usually hits those ...
BOL

C-Gold · 10-13-10, 08:27 PM

Good, I want to hear the arguments against, No need to stroke my already overly inflated ego, I just want to know who has the best shot at winning the game as I believe in detailed analysis and don't want to miss anything...

I get the "divisonal rival" argument and the Browns have actually covered a good percentage of their last 10 or so games... They are actually better this year. My biggest worry would be Josh Cribbs returns and field position. I usually don't like playing a favorite that is more than -7 or so. I mean, you lay 10 points, the underdog takes that 7-0 lead in the first quarter and you say ****, is my bet over already????

Two different people I know have close friends that played for Eric Mangini, neither guy liked him and that backs up everything I hear in the Media. But Holmgren talked to him and saw something in him. I don't know man. Mangini coaching Colt Mccoy against the Steelers D on the road? Like I said, if the score was 28-14 I'd say it was "closer" than what I would have guessed. I mean, doesn't 30-10 sound more about right? How about a beat down like when the Steelers went into Tampa and whooped them. That Tampa team with Freeman is probably a good comparison and the Steelers worked them.

I'd love to hear Walters thoughts on Houston. I was actually impressed with the Chiefs Pass rush/Corner play and that's good to stop the pass... Houston is a passing team with above average to average running the ball despite ripping the Colts. I haven't see much of KC though...

Jakoby87 · 10-13-10, 09:43 PM

Good Luck this week Gold !!!

Cris_from_Europe · 10-14-10, 06:37 AM

This is Walter's arguments for taking Houston -4.5 :
.
"KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: This is a really great matchup for Houston's defense. The Texans' secondary has had major issues this season, ranking 31st against the pass. Despite Hakeem Nicks' monstrous numbers, they were better last week, limiting the Giants to a 7.1 YPA (they're at 8.3 YPA for the year).

However, Matt Cassel is pretty terrible. He's just not good enough to take advantage of Houston's weakness. Cassel played poorly against the Browns' secondary, and Cleveland can't defend the pass.

Kansas City's offensive strength is running the ball, but that's what Houston excels against. The Texans are eighth versus the run, as they've surrendered just 3.8 yards per carry to opposing backs this season.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans couldn't click last week. It seemed like Matt Schaub was trying to force passes into Andre Johnson, who wasn't 100 percent. On the first drive, a pass toward Johnson fell incomplete, bringing up fourth down. On the next possession, Schaub tossed an interception while targeting his top wideout again.

Johnson said he felt no soreness afterward and will definitely be healthier this week. Jacoby Jones could be back as well. This is not good news for a shaky Kansas City secondary that has allowed at least 229 passing yards to each opponent it has faced, including Alex Smith and Seneca Wallace. Cornerback Brandon Flowers has been absolutely awesome this year, but rookie safety Eric Berry is really shaky in coverage.

Like Johnson, Arian Foster appeared to be pretty banged up as well last week. He appears to be fine now; he ran with the team on Monday. This is great news for Houston, as Kansas City showed some susceptibility to the run last week once Mike Hart took over for an ineffective Joseph Addai.

RECAP: I absolutely LOVE the Texans in this spot. In fact, this is my October NFL Pick of the Month. Aside from the fact that Houston matches up really well against Kansas City, I have a variety of reasons for liking the host so much:

1. Last week was Kansas City's Super Bowl. The players and coaching staff had two weeks to prepare for the Colts. It was their chance to prove to everyone how good they were; for their entire bye week, they listened to the media constantly laugh, "Can you believe the Chiefs are the last undefeated team?"

Kansas City brought the kitchen sink against the Colts. There were onside kicks, creative defensive schemes and attempts on fourth down. Everyone on the Chiefs (except for Dwayne Bowe) played their hearts out. It looked like they had a great chance to win, but just ran out of gas in the fourth quarter. Indianapolis eventually wore them down, and when Mike Hart scored a late touchdown, everyone on the Kansas City sideline looked defeated.

Now, the Chiefs have to travel again to play a Houston squad that looked awful last Sunday. How can Kansas City possibly get up for this game? It's not like they even need to win because everyone else in their division is 2-3.

2. Speaking of the Texans, they were awful against the Giants. As mentioned though, the fact that Andre Johnson and Arian Foster weren't healthy really screwed up the game plan. In the wake of Houston's big loss, this line has dipped down to -4.5. Had the Texans won, we may have seen -5.5 or -6 on the board. We're getting solid value here with the host.

3. Houston is coming off a huge loss. So, what does that mean? Well, for one thing, they have a 72.3-percent chance of covering according to a trend I mentioned in the Chargers-Rams game. Teams that lose the point spread by 25 or more points are 74-36 against the spread the following week. But here's the catch - if they are favored, they're 34-13 against the number. Gary Kubiak is 1-0 in this dynamic.

The explanation behind this trend is simple. First, no one wants to bet on a team that looked inept the previous week, so that drags the line down (and as you can see below, most people are betting on the Chiefs). And second, teams that humiliate themselves have extra motivation to rebound the following week after hearing the national media bash them ad nauseum.

4. More cool numbers: Kubiak is 4-1 against the spread when favored after losing as a favorite. Kubiak is also 4-1 versus the number after losing at home by 10-plus points. And finally, Kubiak is a flawless 3-0 against the line going into the bye. The Hello, Goodbye Trend would apply if Houston were -6.5.

Again, I love the Texans here. I eyed this contest prior to last week's games. My plan was to bet Houston big if the Chiefs lost a close game to the Colts. Little did I know that the Texans would embarrass themselves against the Giants to garner extra motivation."

305GURU · 10-14-10, 09:01 AM

Great post Gold im liking the texans at home...indy should cover...dont know aboit pitt...and also leaning Oakland BOL

C-Gold · 10-14-10, 06:09 PM

Crisis, fantastic post, I'm glad to share well thought out info, but here's my devils advocate argument...

The Texans are eighth versus the run, as they've surrendered just 3.8 yards per carry to opposing backs this season.

But are the Texans 8th against the run because they have a strong run defense, or are they strong against the run because it's soooo damn easy throwing the ball on their secondary. Remember, the offense gets 1 choice per play... Pass or run... Remember the 1999 Rams were #1 in the league in rush defense... Were they #1 because they had a bruising run defense or were they #1 because opposing offenses were down by 17 points and had to pass to catch up? I like Demico Ryans, I like getting Cushing Back, I like their D-Line, and don't disagree that they are better at stopping the run than the pass but that doesn't mean I think they have a good run D.

a shaky Kansas City secondary that has allowed at least 229 passing yards to each opponent it has faced, including Alex Smith and Seneca Wallace

I'll admit I've only seen the Chiefs play 1 game, but I was impressed with their pass Defense in that game. Both corners looked good especially Flowers. Their D-Line looked good too with Jackson, and Hali was pass rushing strong too. The reason why their Pass D gave up 229 yards to the 49ers is because they were blowing them out ( and I am guessing playing back some if not prevent). It's not because their pass D is weak. They looked good against Manning last week and in all honesty the Chiefs should have won the game. You know why they didn't though... Matt Cassell couldn't move the ball, but I wouldn't even pin it all on him. I saw him put the ball where he needs to and have 3 dropped balls in a row ( 2 by Dwayne Bowe). So poor WR play and a QB that the jury is still out on... I did think they were well coached by Todd Haley and Romeo Crenell though and that's important to me.

Houston's big loss, this line has dipped down to -4.5. Had the Texans won, we may have seen -5.5 or -6 on the board. We're getting solid value here with the host.

I agree with your point, but is 1.5 points really value? I mean the 49ers are laying 6.5 against the Raiders and they should be laying at absolute most 3 points and probably not even that... That's 3.5 points of value right there so there are better games if you are looking strictly for value.

The explanation behind this trend is simple. First, no one wants to bet on a team that looked inept the previous week, so that drags the line down (and as you can see below, most people are betting on the Chiefs). And second, teams that humiliate themselves have extra motivation to rebound the following week after hearing the national media bash them ad nauseum.

I like that trend a lot, and was thinking about fading KC after they "looked good in their loss" to the Colts, and yes, Houston must have looked awful vs the Giants but I haven't watched that yet so you'd THINK there was a lot of value there but what did we say, there's about an extra 1.5 points worth of value? That's really not that much. 4.5 is not a key number, but 6 is a secondary key number.

I don't doubt you are right, I just see better games out there. I'd say neither team is elite, neither team is terrible, you could be right, but I don't really feel that edge there but I wish you good luck.

C-Gold · 10-14-10, 06:12 PM

Nothing locked in yet, but here are my leans...
Pittsburgh -13.5
Chicago -6
Indy -3
Baltimore +2.5

piecemaker · 10-14-10, 06:50 PM

So far you have 3 of the same as me. I haven't gone ahead with Pittsburgh yet, but i just might end up doing that also. Here's some controversey. I picked Raiders for a simple reason, 49ers don't know how to close games and even if they do win its not gonna be by a TD. I also like the UNDER 42, i cant imagine this game being anything other then a Defensive game. Give me Texans to cover -4.5 . The giants made them look really bad closing both their run game and passing. If you saw the game you could see their was no timing between Johnson and Schaub and they were both struggling. Chiefs gonna slow Foster down maybe a little but the chiefs young corners cant cover johnson, walter and daniels. I think Owen Daniels has a big game. I have a wierd feeling Cassel is gonna have a 3 turnover game...

C-Gold · 10-14-10, 07:08 PM

Pittsburgh
On Paper the Steelers don't look like 13 point favorites...
Browns offense: 301 yards per game ( but 15.6 ppg)
Steelers offense: 269 yards per game ( but 21 ppg)
- Browns offense moving the ball more!

Browns give up 19.4 ppg ( but 343 yards on defense)
Steelers give up 12.5 ppg ( but 289 yards on defense)
- Only a 7 point gap in points allowed!

That doesn't look like a 13 point spread right???

Steelers won their games by 6, 8, 25 ( and lost by 3) ... That means they've coverd 13 once in 4 games
Browns lost their games by 3, 2, 7, 10 ( and won by 3)... That means they've not coverd 13 in 5 games

But the Steelers beat the 1 weaker opponent they had bad...
The Browns have kept their games close, and they are actually 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games

But this is going to the the Steelers BIGGEST win or 2nd BIGGEST WIN.

We know we can throw some of those above stats out... This Browns team will be led by a freaking ROOKIE, and the Steelers will probably have their best QB play on Sunday. So you are probably getting the Steelers BEST and the Browns WORST.

Division rivalry? Sure, but the Steelers beat them by 13 in Pittsburgh last year, and they beat them by 31 in Pittsburgh two years ago... Some rivarly games are close, but some turn into bad blood beat downs... Rivarly Divisional games can go the other way too...

The Steelers are #2 in the NFL in the turnover battle
They are tied for #3 in take aways
There is no way in hell Colts Mccoy is ready for this Steelers defense that will be at HOME

For the Steelers, my biggest worry is special teams, Josh Cribbs... The Steelers had weak return coverage last year, but seem to be better this year and the Browns are dead last in Kickoff Return yards, and the Steelers have had 9 kick returns and they ran one back for a TD.

Lastly, if the Steelers are up late in the game, I think Big Ben and the offense has something to keep playing for... They keep trying to score points to ( get in a groove). They want to look good at home, they want to get fans excited. You tell me, if the Steelers win 28-14, you'd say the game was closer than you thought right? I think this game probably looks more like the Steelers/Tampa game that they won by 25 points than any other game.

C-Gold · 10-14-10, 07:23 PM

Chicago
Seattle O, 18.8 PF
Chicago O, 18.4 PF
Seattle D, 19.2 PA
Chicago D, 14.8 PA

but why look at aggregate Stats? We already know Seattle is a HOME Team and Shitty ROAD team

Seattle O, 8,5 PF on the road
Seattle D, 25.5 PA on the road

I know, I know, small sample size, but they played a horrible Rams team and an alright/decent denver team.

Chicago wants to pass... Seattle's pass defense sucks give up 302 passing yards per game
Chicago D is good at stoping the run, and only gives up 5.6 per pass... Trouble for Hasselfag

Seattle already has 2 Offensive Tackles injured, and they are trying to block Julius Peppers..

Seattle lost their 2 games by more than 10 points... Blew out the 49ers, and beat the Chargers...
Chicago won some close games against decent teams, lost to the Giants, and then rebounded and beat down a weak carolina team...

This isn't a west coast team traveling east for a 1PM start, but I think you still get some of that in this game... With that being said Chicago is good at forcing turnovers...In fact they are #1 in the NFL. Chicago also turns the ball over with their Martz offense and Cutler, but can Seattle's weak pass D take advantage? Trufant is hurt for an already weak unit.

Seattle has 2 KR touchdowns and the #1 return team by avg return, but Chicago is 6th... With Hester I still think I'd rather have the Bears Special teams but Leon Washington is somebody who could help... Two teams with good return games are good for an over, but I like sides over totals.

The line is -6, and I think Chicago wins by at least 7, and then of course there is always that chance Seattle doesn't wake up for the game and gets blown out by 3 TD's.

C-Gold · 10-14-10, 09:06 PM

Watched the Giants/Houston game from last week on tape... here are some thoughts...

- Houston had holding calls on about 3 of their first 4 returns... The Giants had 1, and I think they refs overall did call a tight game, but on Houston's next 2 returns they got 16 and 17 yards ( very weak for kick returns). I like Jacoby Jones and think he's underrated, but the return game really struggled.

- Giants run blitz a LOT on defense in 1st downs. It's obvious.
- At one time the announcers aid " it's like the Giants know what they are doing". They did have very good defensive play calling early in the game, but is it that hard to guess? Run Blitz on 1st downs ( most teams run), they blitzed hard on 3rd downs and watched for screens... It worked well but I'll keep a better eye on Perry Fewells play calling.
- Giants MLB Jonathan Goff improved a LOT. Last year he was EASILY the worst MLB in the NFL... Now he's looking a hell of a lot better. He deflected a pass, and had a nice TFL and is much better vs the run.

Houston's Pass D sucks, but Pass D is two things... Pass rush & Pass coverage
Houston's Pass D sucks because of Pass COVERAGE. They have a rookie corner and the other guy sucks too. Terrible ball skills
Houston's pass rush isn't bad with Mario Williams, Smith, Cody, Okoye but mostly Super Mario...

This game was really over at some point in the 2nd quarter...

C-Gold · 10-14-10, 09:31 PM

Ravens

Baltimore has gained more yards than their opponent in all 5 games ( that's big to me)*
The Patriots have been outgained yardage wise in all games but 1 ( Buffalo) *

Baltimore ran over the Pats last year and their defense might even be worse
Pats drop Randy Moss and bring in a much weaker Deion Branch

Pat's book of work
Patriots beat an overrated Cincy team
Lost to the Jets by 2 TD
Got into a shoot out with a weak Buffalo team, couldn't stop Buffalo's offense
Beat Miami with Special teams

NE had good special teams, but Baltimore's coach is a special teams coach, I wouldn't count on winning this game on special teams, and The Ravens ran all over the Pats in the last meeting.

Baltimore's D is good against the Pass 156YPG 5.6 PP
The offenses put up similar yardage, but the Patriots score a lot more
New England gives up about 130 more yards per game and 10 points per game

I've seen the Patriots defense and it's not very good
I'm not Flacco fan, but if they keep it simple, they are good enough to score on the Pats Bellicheck or not

This should be a good game, but I think the Ravens win outright, if not, they could lose by 1, 2 or 3.

C-Gold · 10-14-10, 09:56 PM

Colts

Too tired and lazy to post too many stats/thoughts but here is some summary
- The Redskins's opponents outgained the Redskins every game... Redskins are 0-5 in yardage war
- Redskins play up/down to their competition

- Colts have Injuries, but Manning MAKES it work. Sometimes I feel like he could score with any offense. I mean who are the breakout guys on offense? They seem more like possession guys that execute... Sometimes I feel like they need to add some FREAK playmakers that turn nothing into something, instead of always having to execute that offense.
- Donald Brown should play, that means Mike Hart ( worst RB in the NFL ) won't

The Redskins secondary is not very good and won't be able to stop Manning... The Colts are vulnerable vs the run, but the Redskins haven't been a great running team. ( shocking since shanny is their coach)

PhilliesPhan · 10-14-10, 10:21 PM

Love the texans, chi, indy, pitt this week .. loved bmore at first glance b.c i think they match up well with the pats but bellichek and brady off a bye are shady to bet against .. if i had to bet it i agree with you but im thinkin stay away.

C-Gold · 10-14-10, 10:28 PM

Originally posted by PhilliesPhan

Love the texans, chi, indy, pitt this week .. loved bmore at first glance b.c i think they match up well with the pats but bellichek and brady off a bye are shady to bet against .. if i had to bet it i agree with you but im thinkin stay away.

Baltimore is probably my lowest rated play, but I'm thinking of taking them anyway. But it is two good teams and could go either way but I just think the Pats D is that weak, and they are a dog that won outright ( huge win) that is favored the following week.

Baltimore has outgained their opponents every week blah blah blah.

757sFinest · 10-15-10, 07:05 AM

Agreed with the colts here. They get it done in primetime. Ravens win by 7. Their team is to well rounded. Big running day for rice, willis and mcclain. If for some reason pats gameplan for that, flacco eats them up through the air. The more I look at this game I don't think its close.

C-Gold · 10-16-10, 06:20 PM

Locked in...
Bears -6
Pittsburgh -14 ( wish I bought it earlier)
Ravens +2.5 ( not buying the hook, -130 is too expensive)
Colts -3

All for 2.5 units

HuBu · 10-16-10, 06:28 PM

locked in for TB +4. thanks.

C-Gold · 10-17-10, 07:38 AM

Considering Green Bay -3 too. I wish that game was at 4 PM

jackmyhoggoff · 10-17-10, 10:07 AM

Packers or not ? I want to C-GOLD!!! THANKS & GLA

ebbearsfb1 · 10-17-10, 10:19 AM

love the right up c-gold.. good stuff..

hotshotz3 · 10-17-10, 10:28 AM

nice post, I was on all 4 of those myself

314cashes · 10-17-10, 10:36 AM

lovin the steelers

C-Gold · 10-17-10, 11:13 AM

ADD
Locked in Green Bay -3 for 2.5 units

C-Gold · 10-17-10, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by jackmyhoggoff

Packers or not ? I want to C-GOLD!!! THANKS & GLA

Post that wager and at about 4:10 today you will see some muthafuckin gold

eatdust11 · 10-17-10, 11:16 AM

Interesting post

C-Gold · 10-17-10, 11:18 AM

ADD

Tampa Bay +5 ( 1 unit)

C-Gold · 10-17-10, 11:24 AM

Add

Eagles -1 ( 2.5 units)

C-Gold · 10-17-10, 11:33 AM

Week 6 updated Card
Pittsburgh -13.5, 2.5 units
Chicago -6, 2.5 units
Indy -3, 2.5 units
Baltimore +2.5, 2.5 units
Packers -3, 2.5 units
Eagles -1, 2.5 units
Tampa Bay +5, 1 unit

C-Gold · 10-17-10, 12:01 PM

Depending on how the Early games go, I'll look at making some additions for the 4PM, but the Card is already pretty full. Good luck all.

jackmyhoggoff · 10-17-10, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by C-Gold

Depending on how the Early games go, I'll look at making some additions for the 4PM, but the Card is already pretty full. Good luck all.

ON them C let's rock some A$$

C-Gold · 10-17-10, 04:41 PM

ADD
San Fran 2nd half -5 ( 1 unit)
Denver 2nd half +3 ( 1 unit

jackmyhoggoff · 10-17-10, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by C-Gold

Post that wager and at about 4:10 today you will see some muthafuckin gold

PACK GOT US !!

C-Gold · 10-17-10, 06:42 PM

Lost 2 in Overtime.
The Ravens got the lead, and shut down their offense.
The Packers game I really feel duped on the bad call. Their rookie backup LB lined up over the center on a punt? The guy was 5 yards off the ball! Come on man. Miami gets a 1st down, scores, then GB scores at the end of regulation on what should have won the game, then Miami wins the coin toss and wins in OT. No way Henne would have marched down Miami in regulation for a game winning td. I was pissed at how that one shitty call changed the whole game.