I'm laying the wood fellas!

[pavyracer]

I have to admit I am not a numbers guy. As an ex-player though I know that emotion is what wins games. I know teams have a hard time covering big spreads at superbowls. I know it's very hard to go 19-0 just like the last strikeout is the hardest to get in baseball (just ask the Yankees). I knew that the Giants were stress free and that everyone wanted to beat the Pats. The Pats were under immense pressure to win it all.

Now if my reasoning is flawed because I'm not a statistician but a psychologist then let it be since I am winning my bets and grow my bankroll. In sports, not the best team wins. The team that wants it more always wins.

[BuddyBear]

Basically you feel that the Patriots would win greater than 4/5 of the games they play which is in itself flawed thinking, I feel at the very least the Giants pull off 1/5 of these. You just stated yourself the Patriots were at most 10 pt favorite (I disagree and said in REALITY they were around 7 pts better, this is how I felt before, during and after the game) after the fact I could say they were 3 pt dogs to NY but that would be intellectual dishonesty in any event giving you the benefit of the doubt and saying that they are 10 pt favorites at best -440 would still not be of any "value" to bet especially considering they faced them only a month ago and escaped with a 3 pt victory further supporting that they were no more than 7 pt favorites in reality and that the last 10 games they were simply overrated which is why if you took the dog in the last 10 games against NE you just went 9-1, where is the value in this bet, taking NE -900 against the Chargers also had no value whatsoever b/c the Chargers will pull off the upset at least 1/10th of the time. Either way you blew your money and I won so take your worthless 2200 to win 500 ticket and flush it and I'll take my lock win 400/312 NY +14, as Willy Wonka would say "Good Day Sir"

Right...nice intro to SBR. Your 4/5 if a qualitiative jugment. The power ranking would have NE on a neutral field much higehr than -7. And I said that if they opened it up at -7 it would quickly be steamed to -10 at least. The Patriots would in my opinion beat the Giants 9 out of 10 times, not just 4 out of 5 times. You are talking about a team that was 18-0 having beaten everyone all year long against a team that beat virtually nobody. I'll take my chances with the Patriots ML -400 anytime undert that situation. All the sharps guys on here (and other forums) were on NE ATS and ML. LT Profits, BigBollocks, BBD, ME, SBRJohn, etc... I don't regret my bet one bit and quite frankly I felt that -400 was stealing. Every pro gamlber I heard on the radio the past week predicted Pats win and about 75% predicated a blowout. Of course they lost but really -400 was a good bet it just wasn't a winning bet. What if the Pats play USC and I bet -400 are you going to say, don't lay -400 b/c that is too much juice. There are just times you have to swallow it and lay the chalk. Yeah, laying that much chalk is undesirable don't get me wrong and I don't do it often but -400 for a team that should have been -800. Where were your posts about this before the game started...only after the fact do you come out of the woodworks and give us this lesson. All of us on here are pretty well acquanted with the horrors of laying big ML chalk.

Anyway, every single break had to go for NYG in order to win that game. The missed fumbler recovery by NE, the miracle scrammble and miracle catch, the bonehead decision my BB to go for it on 4th and 13 instead of the FG, etc. Not saying the NYG was ever in doubt but surely, when one looks back, the Patriots have no one to blame but themselves.

Lastly, who said I bet $2200. Not sure where you are getting that number from. And I don't think it is your business to know how much I bet nor do i want to know how much you bet. Regardless of how much one bet, the principles are all the same. Also, you keep saying -440. I took it -400 and so did BBD. That is a big difference. Even -440 is not a bad price but surely -400 is better. I took -400 while it was -525 on Pinnacle and -550 on the Greek too.

Best of luck...i am going to basketball practice.

Later fellows....

[awhitejackson]

I was rooting for you bud hate seeing people lose with the wood

[bettilimbroke999]

Every break went their way huh, on the 10 yrd line on Giants 2nd drive they throw an INT turning guar. fg/potential td into 0 pts, on 3rd drive they are at the 25 yr line and get a 20 yr penalty on 3rd down turning highly likely fg into punt, everything went the Giants way on THE DEFENSIVE LINE, Brady was eating so much turf I thought they had a cow at QB. If you can't see that the Giants defensive line decided this game then you shouldn't be allowed to wager on football, b/c 17-14 was the minimum Giants should've won this game by they completely outplayed NE and forfeited every possible opportunity to score, the only opportunity NE forfeited was turning down a 50 yrd field goal attempt which their 2nd year kicker who is absolutely one of the worst in the league would've probably missed anyway given his questionable ability, it being only his 2nd season and pressure of the Super Bowl (hence that's why BB didn't even attempt it), if everything went their way they would've gotten at least 9 pts in their first 3 drives for 3 fg's or we could say 21 pts for 3 td's instead of 3 instead of having scored only 3 going into 4th qtr), anyways get your head out of your azz you took the dump end of it and got shit on its all good we all make mistakes, amazing you are claiming this is a lock bet after they only beat NY a month ago by 3, what was that yet another fluke (NY is apparently the luckiest team on earth against NE according to you, the get a fluke every time they play). I feel -400 is much more reasonable and is probably about the true line given that NE would win 4/5 you would break even, that however has no value and I was specifically referencing the guy laying 2200/500 and posting "Easy Money" in my posts

[The Seer]

Brady was eating so much turf I thought they had a cow at QB.

that's an instant classic

the only opportunity NE forfeited was turning down a 50 yrd field goal attempt which their 2nd year kicker who is absolutely one of the worst in the league would've probably missed anyway given his questionable ability, it being only his 2nd season and pressure of the Super Bowl (hence that's why BB didn't even attempt it),

I totally agree here. I am famiiliar with this kid during my time coaching in Memphis. Great leg but no Vinateri nerves of steel.

[SexyMit]

If Asanti Samuel would have intercepted that pass the game would have been over. NE would have kneeled on the ball and we wouldn't be having this discussion. But since he missed the ball which he doesn't do very often because I think my little 8 yr old could have caught that INT but hey it is football and I always look forward to next yr. Of if Eli would have gotten sacked instead of scrambling away and Tyree making a catch that I am sure he will never make that same catch 2 times in a row, more than likely he would never make that catch 2 times in his LIFE. But every DOG has its day and it was the Giants turn so ok. For anything else I don't have a specific team but I do like to see upsets and Sunday that was what I saw so I was HAPPY! Gl with everyone and until next yr.