Hey guys, new to the forums. I've been lurking for a couple of days, figured I'd sign up and post my thoughts/plays and see what people think.
For me, I don't bet too much per game... A combination of some bad play so far and limited budget has me betting smaller amounts. A unit = $100. I will post my thoughts on the games I like, and my plays as well.
Denver +7 @ Baltimore
The Ravens are coming off a huge, emotional win vs the Steelers. It's very well known that teams coming off close in-division wins often come out flat the next week. The Broncos have played very well this year (tough win vs Titans [cost me a parlay], close game vs the Colts) and I think that Kyle Orton and this offense can keep inside of the Ravens. Without Ed Reed, the Ravens secondary isn't amazing and McDaniels' offense should hold up vs the pass rush pretty well. I don't think they'll win, but Denver staying inside a TD is one of my top plays this week.
Denver +7 1 unit ($100)
Jacksonville +1.5 @ Buffalo
Jacksonville just won their biggest game of the season. They are leaving Florida to visit upstate New York. Although it isn't that cold yet, it still isn't a trip many people like to make. The Bills have been horrible this season, but this bet is more of me not liking the Jags than it is liking the Bills. I'd be very surprised if the Bills lose this one, which is basically all the 1.5 is asking (yes, 1 point wins happen but it'll easily be a FG or more). Plus, not having Lynch to steal carries from Jackson/Spiller is a positive for me.
Buffalo -1.5 1.25 units ($125)
St Louis +3 @ Detroit
The Lions defense is horrible. Sam Bradford has played beautifully this season, and Steven Jackson has yet to really get it going... But he should against this horrible Lions run defense (29th). The Rams have played very well, and although the Lions have as well in many close games, I really don't think the Lions will get up to play the Rams after their deflating losses so far this year. I like the Rams within 3... I like the Rams by 3... I like the Rams by 7, too.
St. Louis +3 1 unit ($100)
Chicago +3 @ Carolina
Let me start by saying that I am a Carolina Panthers fan. I know that Jay Cutler isn't playing, but Carolina is not a very good team this year. The Bears match up pretty well with the Panthers - they have a very good run defense to stop our run offense (which has been unimpressive this year). Clausen is not going to do anything big this year, especially without Smith. Even though we usually play well at home, I still think Chicago has enough to be inside a field goal, even win. Carolina will be flat after losing a close in division game (see the trend here?) and Chicago should win this one.
Chicago +3 .5 units ($50)
Tennessee +7 @ Dallas
Although I was very anti-Chris Johnson coming in to this season, it's hard to fathom that he hasn't made a big impact yet. I think it's about time for that to happen. Dallas has some tough games coming up after this one, so perhaps they have been looking ahead and the Titans haven't played up to their potential this season. This won't be a huge play from me, but I don't think Dallas will beat the Titans by more than a TD.
Tennessee +7 .5 units ($50)
Philadelphia +3 @ San Francisco
I have been a big supporter of San Francisco this season...
But now, I think this is the perfect situation for them to win... But are they really as good as the Eagles after taking out the 3 pt home field advantage? I don't think so. This may be a product of me hating Mike Vick, but I really do think the Eagles with Kevin Kolb are severely underrated. I think this line is a product of people hopping on the Mike Vick bandwagon, and on the Kolb sucks wagon. McCoy may be hurt, but Kolb with the speed the Eagles have on the outside is enough for me to cover the spread and win the game. This won't be a big bet from me, because it always seems like when I give up on a team they win, but I really think Kolb is better than what people give him credit for. Also, the 49ers are coming off a very tough loss (not in division.. but still).
Philadelphia +3 .5 units ($50)
Besides what I've posted above, I also love the Raiders-Chargers game to be go under 45. The Chargers have sucked, and the Raiders haven't been that bad on D... But without McFadden, they probably won't score more than 14. Will the Chargers top 4 TDs on Nnamdi and company, without V-Jax? I don't think so.
Raiders - Chargers under 45 1 unit ($100)
Small parlay/teaser: (placed 10/7, lines may not be updated)
Parlay: (placed 10/7 in the morning)
Jags - Bills over 41 (where's the defense in this game?)
Rams +3
Chargers - Raiders under 45
Titans +7
Eagles + 3.5
Eagles - 49ers over 38
Bet: $5.50 to win $250.20
6 point Teaser: (placed 10/7 in evening)
Bills +8
Rams +9.5
Packers +3.5
Chargers - Raiders under 51.5
Titans +13.5
Eagles +10
Bet: $9.09 to win $50
Note: I have been horrible with parlays/teasers. I won a parlay week 2 of college football and got very cocky, and have lost it all back on some relatively high risk parlays. I do not recommend playing them, but figured I'd post them. Also, I realize I didn't really spread my bets too much so it's kind of all-or-nothing.
I have been in the negative (slightly) this year, so perhaps you guys should avoid this... But I'm looking for some opinions, and thoughts on my writing style. Let me know if you agree/disagree, want me to clarify a pick, etc. I'd be glad to give you my opinion on any game. PLEASE post
For me, I don't bet too much per game... A combination of some bad play so far and limited budget has me betting smaller amounts. A unit = $100. I will post my thoughts on the games I like, and my plays as well.
Denver +7 @ Baltimore
The Ravens are coming off a huge, emotional win vs the Steelers. It's very well known that teams coming off close in-division wins often come out flat the next week. The Broncos have played very well this year (tough win vs Titans [cost me a parlay], close game vs the Colts) and I think that Kyle Orton and this offense can keep inside of the Ravens. Without Ed Reed, the Ravens secondary isn't amazing and McDaniels' offense should hold up vs the pass rush pretty well. I don't think they'll win, but Denver staying inside a TD is one of my top plays this week.
Denver +7 1 unit ($100)
Jacksonville +1.5 @ Buffalo
Jacksonville just won their biggest game of the season. They are leaving Florida to visit upstate New York. Although it isn't that cold yet, it still isn't a trip many people like to make. The Bills have been horrible this season, but this bet is more of me not liking the Jags than it is liking the Bills. I'd be very surprised if the Bills lose this one, which is basically all the 1.5 is asking (yes, 1 point wins happen but it'll easily be a FG or more). Plus, not having Lynch to steal carries from Jackson/Spiller is a positive for me.
Buffalo -1.5 1.25 units ($125)
St Louis +3 @ Detroit
The Lions defense is horrible. Sam Bradford has played beautifully this season, and Steven Jackson has yet to really get it going... But he should against this horrible Lions run defense (29th). The Rams have played very well, and although the Lions have as well in many close games, I really don't think the Lions will get up to play the Rams after their deflating losses so far this year. I like the Rams within 3... I like the Rams by 3... I like the Rams by 7, too.
St. Louis +3 1 unit ($100)
Chicago +3 @ Carolina
Let me start by saying that I am a Carolina Panthers fan. I know that Jay Cutler isn't playing, but Carolina is not a very good team this year. The Bears match up pretty well with the Panthers - they have a very good run defense to stop our run offense (which has been unimpressive this year). Clausen is not going to do anything big this year, especially without Smith. Even though we usually play well at home, I still think Chicago has enough to be inside a field goal, even win. Carolina will be flat after losing a close in division game (see the trend here?) and Chicago should win this one.
Chicago +3 .5 units ($50)
Tennessee +7 @ Dallas
Although I was very anti-Chris Johnson coming in to this season, it's hard to fathom that he hasn't made a big impact yet. I think it's about time for that to happen. Dallas has some tough games coming up after this one, so perhaps they have been looking ahead and the Titans haven't played up to their potential this season. This won't be a huge play from me, but I don't think Dallas will beat the Titans by more than a TD.
Tennessee +7 .5 units ($50)
Philadelphia +3 @ San Francisco
I have been a big supporter of San Francisco this season...
But now, I think this is the perfect situation for them to win... But are they really as good as the Eagles after taking out the 3 pt home field advantage? I don't think so. This may be a product of me hating Mike Vick, but I really do think the Eagles with Kevin Kolb are severely underrated. I think this line is a product of people hopping on the Mike Vick bandwagon, and on the Kolb sucks wagon. McCoy may be hurt, but Kolb with the speed the Eagles have on the outside is enough for me to cover the spread and win the game. This won't be a big bet from me, because it always seems like when I give up on a team they win, but I really think Kolb is better than what people give him credit for. Also, the 49ers are coming off a very tough loss (not in division.. but still). Philadelphia +3 .5 units ($50)
Besides what I've posted above, I also love the Raiders-Chargers game to be go under 45. The Chargers have sucked, and the Raiders haven't been that bad on D... But without McFadden, they probably won't score more than 14. Will the Chargers top 4 TDs on Nnamdi and company, without V-Jax? I don't think so.
Raiders - Chargers under 45 1 unit ($100)
Small parlay/teaser: (placed 10/7, lines may not be updated)
Parlay: (placed 10/7 in the morning)
Jags - Bills over 41 (where's the defense in this game?)
Rams +3
Chargers - Raiders under 45
Titans +7
Eagles + 3.5
Eagles - 49ers over 38
Bet: $5.50 to win $250.20
6 point Teaser: (placed 10/7 in evening)
Bills +8
Rams +9.5
Packers +3.5
Chargers - Raiders under 51.5
Titans +13.5
Eagles +10
Bet: $9.09 to win $50
Note: I have been horrible with parlays/teasers. I won a parlay week 2 of college football and got very cocky, and have lost it all back on some relatively high risk parlays. I do not recommend playing them, but figured I'd post them. Also, I realize I didn't really spread my bets too much so it's kind of all-or-nothing.
I have been in the negative (slightly) this year, so perhaps you guys should avoid this... But I'm looking for some opinions, and thoughts on my writing style. Let me know if you agree/disagree, want me to clarify a pick, etc. I'd be glad to give you my opinion on any game. PLEASE post
)? Cardinals are good at home I guess... But the Saints this week should seek to remind everyone what a dominant team they were last year, and still could be.
