Atlanta @ Cleveland
Atlanta recorded home wins against Laurel (week 2) and Hardy (week 4). A road game at Cleveland, conquerors of comparable Cincinnatti last week, represents a sterner test. I have the Falcons defense down as over-rated, not hugely surprising after facing the Steelers, Cardinals and 49ers, while the Browns have performed creditably with Seneca Wallace at the joystick. The major concern in backing the Browns here is certainly in pass defense, although amazingly Cleveland actually boasts a higher yards-per-attempt this season than leading razor-salesman Ryan.
3 units Browns ML @ 2.4 + 3 units Browns +3
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Denver @ Baltimore
I like the Broncos as a team and had a gratifying bet last week when they won as underdogs at Tennessee. However a second consecutive trip, further East, raises alarm bells. I reckon the Ravens are going to emerge as serious contenders this season, and feel fairly confident they have the defense (league-leading on third down) to cope with the Broncos passing game. I have the Broncos down as 'under-rated' on offense in my secret statistical almanac, but suspect that will continue until Kyle Orton adds red-zone efficiency to his otherwise strong game. I was on the right side of the Broncos schellacking here last season and expect a similar outcome.
5 units Ravens -7
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Chicago @ Carolina
This week's "I shoulda got my bet on earlier" pick, as a line I liked immensely at 1.5 has been bet to 3 in some places. It's easy to query Carolina's prospects with a rookie QB and an absent Steve Smith, but the Panthers defense has really impressed me thus far, even while getting dropped in a hole repeatedly during Matt Moore's early struggles. I struggle to see where Chicago is going to get offense from with a back-up QB taking the reins of a Mike Marz offense and a rushing attack that is yet to get going.
On top of all that, this is a second straight road game for the Bears, off a "sort-of" short week (they were in New Jersey at midnight Sunday) AND they have benefitted so far from an unsustainably low number of points conceded for the yards they've given up. Just make sure you cover your punts and kickoffs, Carolina.
6 units Panthers -2.5
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St Louis @ Detroit
The Rams were a Max Bet winner for me last week in handling Seattle, but there's no room for sentiment. They have one enormous statistical bullseye on their helmets based on one of my key betting factors, and this road game against a winless opponent may be time to fire an arrow. This isn't a hugely confident pick - the Rams won here last season after all - but Detroit have competed well all season, match up reasonably well in many categories against these visitors, and have a desperation to get over that hump and record their first 'W'.
5 units Lions -3
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Philadelphia @ San Francisco
The hapless, winless 49ers are favoured? Well, it is Philly travelling the breadth of the country and it is Kolb not Vick at the helm. There may be reasons to worry that Philly won't exactly show up for this, but I like to think that last week's botched effort against the McNabbskins will have them on their mettle. If that's the case - if, if, if - then I find it hard to make a case for Singletary's men
4 units Eagles +3
Atlanta recorded home wins against Laurel (week 2) and Hardy (week 4). A road game at Cleveland, conquerors of comparable Cincinnatti last week, represents a sterner test. I have the Falcons defense down as over-rated, not hugely surprising after facing the Steelers, Cardinals and 49ers, while the Browns have performed creditably with Seneca Wallace at the joystick. The major concern in backing the Browns here is certainly in pass defense, although amazingly Cleveland actually boasts a higher yards-per-attempt this season than leading razor-salesman Ryan.
3 units Browns ML @ 2.4 + 3 units Browns +3
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Denver @ Baltimore
I like the Broncos as a team and had a gratifying bet last week when they won as underdogs at Tennessee. However a second consecutive trip, further East, raises alarm bells. I reckon the Ravens are going to emerge as serious contenders this season, and feel fairly confident they have the defense (league-leading on third down) to cope with the Broncos passing game. I have the Broncos down as 'under-rated' on offense in my secret statistical almanac, but suspect that will continue until Kyle Orton adds red-zone efficiency to his otherwise strong game. I was on the right side of the Broncos schellacking here last season and expect a similar outcome.
5 units Ravens -7
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Chicago @ Carolina
This week's "I shoulda got my bet on earlier" pick, as a line I liked immensely at 1.5 has been bet to 3 in some places. It's easy to query Carolina's prospects with a rookie QB and an absent Steve Smith, but the Panthers defense has really impressed me thus far, even while getting dropped in a hole repeatedly during Matt Moore's early struggles. I struggle to see where Chicago is going to get offense from with a back-up QB taking the reins of a Mike Marz offense and a rushing attack that is yet to get going.
On top of all that, this is a second straight road game for the Bears, off a "sort-of" short week (they were in New Jersey at midnight Sunday) AND they have benefitted so far from an unsustainably low number of points conceded for the yards they've given up. Just make sure you cover your punts and kickoffs, Carolina.
6 units Panthers -2.5
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St Louis @ Detroit
The Rams were a Max Bet winner for me last week in handling Seattle, but there's no room for sentiment. They have one enormous statistical bullseye on their helmets based on one of my key betting factors, and this road game against a winless opponent may be time to fire an arrow. This isn't a hugely confident pick - the Rams won here last season after all - but Detroit have competed well all season, match up reasonably well in many categories against these visitors, and have a desperation to get over that hump and record their first 'W'.
5 units Lions -3
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Philadelphia @ San Francisco
The hapless, winless 49ers are favoured? Well, it is Philly travelling the breadth of the country and it is Kolb not Vick at the helm. There may be reasons to worry that Philly won't exactly show up for this, but I like to think that last week's botched effort against the McNabbskins will have them on their mettle. If that's the case - if, if, if - then I find it hard to make a case for Singletary's men
4 units Eagles +3