C-Gold's Week 5 Breakdown of the card

[C-Gold]

Week 4 we saw dogs BARK LOUD and win games outright... Let's take a look at week 5 and work together...
Home Dogs ( traditional plays)
Cleveland +3 vs Atlanta
Carolina +2.5 vs Chicago
Washington +2.5 vs Green Bay
Oakland +6 vs San Diego
San Fran +3 vs Philly

Dogs that won that straight up that are favored the next week ( traditional fade)
Baltimore -7 over Denver
Dallas -7 over Titans ( although Dallas had a bye inbetween)

West Coast teams traveling East for 1pm starts
None

Jeff Sarigan ratings
I took a look at HIS lines and what the Lines SHOULD be and looked at the games with biggest discrepancy...
Best Bets according to his ratings
#1 Jets
#2 Titans
#3 Arizona
#4 Atlanta
#5 Philly

So for example, according to his ratings system, the Jets at home SHOULD be 10.81 point favorites against the Vikings but are really only 4.5 point favorites so there is a 6.31 point discrepancy which is the largest in the league...

Jets: Why are the Jets the biggest favorites? Minnesota had a bye, and my gut instinct is that Minnesota is NOT a 1-3 team... The Jets like to run the ball, and Minnesota has a strong interior run defense with the Williams boys and to be honest I thought the Jets were overrated coming into this year...

Dallas: SHOULD be 1.8 point favorites to the Titans according to the system but are 7 point favorites for a 5.2 point discrepancy. How come? Dallas was a dog that won outright and is favored (2 weeks later) and Dallas also had a bye... In general, I think fans OVER RATE the bye week. Yes, some teams come back rested and reloaded and ready to go, but some teams also come out flat. I think Fans over estimate the value of the BYE... especially in week 4 of the season. I mean week 11 or something maybe the body recovers some, but after 4 weeks?

Arizona: This is interesting because Arizona got blown out last week and they got blown out a few weeks ago but they won their other 2 games close... The Saints have won 3 games but they were close, their RB's are hurt and their offense hasn't clicked yet.... The system says Arizona should be a 4.33 point dog, but they are getting 7... I guess it's mostly due to the blowout and the fact that the saints have been underachieving.

Atlanta: The system says Atlanta should be favored by 5.84, but are only laying 3 vs the Browns for a 2.84 point discrepancy. My guess is because a lot of people got BURNED by the Sucker bet Browns last week, and because Atlanta seems to be more of a traditional dome team that will be out in the cold on the grass.

Philly: The system says Philly should be laying 5.61 as San Fran is the lowest rated team in the league, but they only lay 3... It's probably due to the 49ers keeping it close vs the Saints, People chasing the 49ers thinking they won't go 0-5, and the Eagles QB Change.

Already bet
I've already bet the Packers -3 vs Washington. Washington is my home team and I know them very well and their pass D sucks. They lost to the Bradford Rams, and they will lose to Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is a QB who plays just as well on the road as he does at home, and if anything GB has under performed this year. Washington is coming off a big emotional win, where they beat the Eagles in the 1st quarter and just existed and floated along for 3 more quarters. Their pass defense matches up horribly against GB, and the Packers defense is strong ( Matthews, Woodson) in particular.

Strong Leans
I actually like the Titans but haven't locked anything in yet.
I think Dallas's D is decently built to stop the Titans run game but...
- I like Vince Young coming "home", he's the kind of guy to give it something extra
Jeff Fisher is the 2nd best coach in the NFL hands down, BB is #1, #3 isn't even close
Wade Phillips is an average at best coach with an underachieving team

The Titans are a well coached, hard working team... The Giants gained 200 more yards than the Titans 2 weeks ago but LOST by 19 points... The Titans play hard and are well coached. How the hell does the other team move the ball down the field on you like that and you win by 19???... On the other hand Dallas is a LAZY, UNDERachieving type team and they are NOT well coached. The Titans are a LIVE 7 point dog in this game. I hate the type of team that "turns it on, and turns it off". People like that Dallas is coming off a bye but what if they come out of the gate "slow"? Dallas may have just "turned it on" in their "mini must win" game vs Houston, but they also lost at home to the Bears, and lost to Washington. Dallas has maybe the most talented team in the NFC, they outgained their opponents in all 3 games, but are only 1-2? Jeff Fisher is a MUCH MUCH better coach than Wade Phillips and I'll fade Dallas coming off a bye and a win...

Jets
The Jets D is legit, and Revis Island will be playing... I know people will lean the Vikings and I thought about them instantly but a LOT of this depends on Favre... Did you see the Saints game? No Sidney Rice meant a bunch of throws to Shancoe... well Shancoe is hurt... Yeah yeah Peterson won the game vs the Lions but PLEASE don't expect for him to run all over that Jets defense... Favre will be bet because it's Monday Night and the NFL won't let his 1-2 talented Vikings go 1-3 right???? Well shit happens. What happens when he's challenging receivers locked up by Revis and Crow bar??? Turnvoers...

Favre 2 TD Passes, 6 INT's so far, 60 rating
Pancho Sanches, 8 TD Passes, 0 INT, 105 Rating

I could see the Jets getting the lead... Playing Martyball on offense, and the Vikings in a HARD match up on offense and Favre starts FORCING IT and commiting more turnovers... The Jets SHOULD win the turnover battle in this game and Jeff Saragain says they should be favored by nearly 11 points, yet they are favored by 4.5...

Arizona
Who wants to bet on this shitty team? They got blown out in 2 games true, but they also won 2 games. They played 2 weak teams and won, played 2 good teams and got smoked...but they were both road games and I'm sure that beat down in SD is on the public's mind.

It's as much a fade of the Saints as anything... They may be SB champs but they don't look it now... You say they are going to win by more than 7 on the road?
Game 1: Won by 5 at home
Game 2: Won by 3 on the road
Game 3: Lost by 3 in OT at home
Game 4: Won by 2 at home

So yes, the Saints are 3-1 but they haven't been that impressive and they haven't won a single game by more than 7 and have only played one road game... The Cardinals got blown out twice on the road but are historically a shitty road team and a much stronger home team...

I taped the Arizona/San Diego game and would actually like to watch it tomorrow night to see them play...

Let me know your guys thoughts???

[C-Gold]

So I watched the Denver/Titans game and here's what I have to say...

- Titans Rookie 4th round LCB out of UCLA Verner played VERY Well
- I liked the Titans 8 man rotation on their D-Line. #97 Brown is the only really good player, the other guys are all decent but high effort and rotated in to get max effort out of all of them. I like what Fisher/Cecil are doing on D there. I wish they'd blitz more, but even under Schwartz they relied a lot on front 4 pressure.

- On offense I like Ahmad Hall and he's an awesome blocker on the wedge on kick offs
- I like how they try and manufacture yards with plays, but Vince is NOT there as a passer
- I think Michael Rooes LT #71 is the best offensive lineman in the NFL and probably the NFL's most underrated player

[C-Gold]

Packers -3 ( 2.5 units)
Colts ML ( 5 units)
Colts -1, Carolina +7.5 Teaser ( 2.5 units)

I'm going to add The Titans and Eagles but will place my bet based on the 1PM money... I'm also looking for 2nd half plays

[C-Gold]

Opps, I mean Chicago +7.5

[C-Gold]

ADD

Titans +7, 2.5 units

Glad I waited and got the line at 7 instead of 6.5

[C-Gold]

Arizona +7.5, 1 unit

[C-Gold]

So I am looking at taking the eagles later tonight

[C-Gold]

So I watched the Denver/Titans game and here's what I have to say...

- Titans Rookie 4th round LCB out of UCLA Verner played VERY Well
- I liked the Titans 8 man rotation on their D-Line. #97 Brown is the only really good player, the other guys are all decent but high effort and rotated in to get max effort out of all of them. I like what Fisher/Cecil are doing on D there. I wish they'd blitz more, but even under Schwartz they relied a lot on front 4 pressure.

- On offense I like Ahmad Hall and he's an awesome blocker on the wedge on kick offs
- I like how they try and manufacture yards with plays, but Vince is NOT there as a passer
- I think Michael Rooes LT #71 is the best offensive lineman in the NFL and probably the NFL's most underrated player

Strong Leans
I actually like the Titans but haven't locked anything in yet.
I think Dallas's D is decently built to stop the Titans run game but...
- I like Vince Young coming "home", he's the kind of guy to give it something extra
Jeff Fisher is the 2nd best coach in the NFL hands down, BB is #1, #3 isn't even close
Wade Phillips is an average at best coach with an underachieving team

The Titans are a well coached, hard working team... The Giants gained 200 more yards than the Titans 2 weeks ago but LOST by 19 points... The Titans play hard and are well coached. How the hell does the other team move the ball down the field on you like that and you win by 19???... On the other hand Dallas is a LAZY, UNDERachieving type team and they are NOT well coached. The Titans are a LIVE 7 point dog in this game. I hate the type of team that "turns it on, and turns it off". People like that Dallas is coming off a bye but what if they come out of the gate "slow"? Dallas may have just "turned it on" in their "mini must win" game vs Houston, but they also lost at home to the Bears, and lost to Washington. Dallas has maybe the most talented team in the NFC, they outgained their opponents in all 3 games, but are only 1-2? Jeff Fisher is a MUCH MUCH better coach than Wade Phillips and I'll fade Dallas coming off a bye and a win...

[C-Gold]

- Titans Rookie 4th round LCB out of UCLA Verner played VERY Well
- I liked the Titans 8 man rotation on their D-Line. #97 Brown is the only really good player, the other guys are all decent but high effort and rotated in to get max effort out of all of them. I like what Fisher/Cecil are doing on D there. I wish they'd blitz more, but even under Schwartz they relied a lot on front 4 pressure.


That's why you do your homework during the week!

[C-Gold]

Eagles +3.5 1 unit

[C-Gold]

Packers -3 ( 2.5 units)
Colts ML ( 5 units)
Colts -1, Bears +7.5 Teaser ( 2.5 units)
Titans +7, 2.5 units
Arizona +7.5, 1 unit
Eagles +3.5, 1 unit

I'm plus 6 units and I will be taking the Jets today... The Vikings can't start out 1-3? Well people thought San Fran wouldn't start out 0-5 right? Favre on MNF right? He lost on prime time to start the NFL season. You know why the Jets are going to win? Turnovers.


Jeff Sarigan
#1 Jets
#2 Titans
#3 Arizona
#4 Atlanta
#5 Philly

[Cris_from_Europe]

Nice run man ... too bad I didn't catch your thread earlier ... good write-ups ... I was leaning Vikings but I am now gonna take the Jets -4.5 tonight thanks to you and other well written threads ... BOL .... lets cash on the Jets tonight

[C-Gold]

Yeah man, I used to have 1,000 to 4,000 hit posts over at C****S but I left that site and was a little dissapointed to only see 100 people read my stuff here.

I also post a weekly FOOLS GOLD SUCKER BET post where I fade the "easy pick" of the week.

For example this week I took the Arizona Cardinals +7.5 when everybody was on the Saints
Last week I took the Browns to beat the Bengals +3
The week before it was the Rams against the Redskins

[C-Gold]

Jets -4.5, 1 unit

[canepole]

good job cgold will be following you thanks

[Cris_from_Europe]

do you also have an College Football thread ? or just NFL ?

[C-Gold]

do you also have an College Football thread ? or just NFL ?

I haven't made threads for college, I'm a pro at NFL but don't know all the teams in college yet.

[rsnnh12]

Very nice CGold

Great analysis. I like the Jets tonight too. Favre is too unreliable this year, and Moss hasn't exactly burned Revis in the past, so he shouldn't be the reason the Vikes win. Jets are solid this year, and Tomlinson has found some younger legs.

BOL

[kidcd]

Nice info C-gold gonna tail the Jets pick tonight good luck

[C-Gold]

Glad to see you guys aboard.

[sportcap]

great thread and anylsis! love when there is some real thinking behind ther picks. def will mark the thread. gl tonight go jets

[C-Gold]

great thread and anylsis! love when there is some real thinking behind ther picks. def will mark the thread. gl tonight go jets

Yes and it's even better when you WIN MONEYYYY

[haserfauld]

Will definitely be keeping an eye on this thread. That said, I can see either team winning, although I like the Jets to win (even though I HATE the Jets). However, I'm playing Minny +14.5 in a teaser, rather than Jets +5.5, simply because +14.5 is an awfully large window in a game I could see go either way. Opinions?

[C-Gold]

Will definitely be keeping an eye on this thread. That said, I can see either team winning, although I like the Jets to win (even though I HATE the Jets). However, I'm playing Minny +14.5 in a teaser, rather than Jets +5.5, simply because +14.5 is an awfully large window in a game I could see go either way. Opinions?

Jeff Sarigain says the spread should be Jets -10.8, and they are his top play... The Jets are favored by 4.5... I wouldn't want Minny +14.5, you could find better things to tease than a team that should lose by 10 or 11.

Favre is high risk high reward.
Most TD's ever
Most picks ever

If the Vikings are losing, this guy will go down with a fight. You won't see the Jason Campbell ( my team is down by 2 touchdowns so I am going to throw a 2 yard check down to my RB... You'll see Favre trying to thread the needle into double coverage.



I used to wait until Saturday or Sunday to post plays, but in the old days at C****S I used to post my "thoughts" earlier in the week and see if any of the other strong cappers had anything to say. I think this is a better format as I can see the best arguments against my ideas and plays. It's like an IN GAME thread but for capping for the week and I'll be sure to do that Tues/Wed/Thur of this week.

[C-Gold]

In my day off I took a look at one of the games on my DVR, Dallas/Houston

- Dez white looked very impressive as a rookie, Larry Fitzerald like ball skills
- Roy Williams looks A LOT better than last year
- Keith Brooking must have had 3 dpi penalties

When Dallas plays well they can beat anybody, but how motivated will this team be on a day to day basis? During the game they said Dallas held a players only meeting and they came out and played strong, but then they lose at home the following week to the Titans? Now what, another players only meeting? Inconsistancy can drive a gambler crazy.

Houston's secondary was unimpressive.

[jackmyhoggoff]

NICE PAL! THANKS ALOT!! Keep it up.

[C-Gold]

No problem, thanks for coming along for the ride

Funny how I talked about Favre & Turnovers... Favre throwing a late pick for the cover. Do I get extra points for that?

[FOOTBALLER18]

It was a weekend of the dogs!

[officepoolguy]

Great job love the analysis using sarigan and home dog trends. Keep up the good work.

[Cris_from_Europe]

What are your picks for week 6 ? My favorite one so far is Houston -4.5 ...

[4TH AND STUPID]

did you try using the discrepancies between jeff sarigans theoretical lines and the actual line in the previous 4 weeks? what was the record in the previous 4 weeks ? ?

(man did it WORK AWESOME IN WEEK 5 , 5-0)

[C-Gold]

did you try using the discrepancies between jeff sarigans theoretical lines and the actual line in the previous 4 weeks? what was the record in the previous 4 weeks ? ?

(man did it WORK AWESOME IN WEEK 5 , 5-0)

The ratings JUST came out, he took 4 weeks of analysis to come out with his "ratings". It would be too small of a sample size to post them for example after 2 weeks.

Jeff Sarigan doesn't post "picks", but I used his ratings to see where the spread differed from the rankings the most. IN the Jets game, the real spread was about 6 points different than "his spread". If you looked at it you could make sense of it... People saw the Vikings coming off a bye... People saw a 1-2 Vikings team that wasn't bad that would be "hungry for a win", and you could literally see why some of these teams were "over valued" to Gamblers.

The Titans have a more or less no name defense
Dallas is better than their record
Dallas had a bye
San Fran lost some close games etc.

So the lines were shaded...

If you looked at other games for example, the spread might be 1 point away or .5 away from what the "spread should be"....

I'll look at some of the games tonight and start a thread. Thanks for coming along for the ride. It was fun making money this week.