C-Gold's Week 4: FOOLS GOLD Sucker bet

[C-Gold]

I used to post these picks with raging success so I'll bring them back. Last weeks pick shoulda woulda coulda been the Rams for an example.

I looked at the Yahoo Pick'em and see 89% on the Bengals, 11% on the Browns
The line opened at Browns +3.5 but moved down to Browns +3

You think the Bengals are so much better than the Browns????
Team A Offense 328 ypg
Team B Offense 314 ypg
- The offense produce similar yardage and point totals, Team A scores about 4 more ppg

Team A's QB 56% Comp percentage, 3TD, 3INT, 71.3 Rating
Team B's QB 62% Comp Percentage, 2TD, 1INT 86.2 Rating
Neither QB has played particularly well thus far

Team A Gives up 300 ypg, 4.5 per carry against the run
Team B gives up 321 ypg, 3.8 per carry against the run
Both defenses give up about the same point total, and both give up rushing yards

Team B is at home, has the best Return man in the league and is getting 3 points... It is the Browns


- Nobody wants to bet on the Browns...
- If you've watched their games their wildcat actually looks pretty good.
- True, Cleveland is 0-3, but they lost by 3 on the road, 2 at home, and by 7 @ Baltimore... They kept them close

- This is as much a fade of Cincy as anything else... Carson Palmer has NOT looked good with his 71 QB rating and 56% completion percentage. True he has new weapons, but that's added pressure and added responsibility and TO is not what he was 5 years ago today.
- Jordan Shipley you can argue has been better than TO and Shipley is even questionable to play in this game.
- A lot of the Bengals excitement is about an over the hill 35yr old WR with poor hands

Trends
Cincy 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on gras
Cincy is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall
Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs the AFC
Cleveland is 8-2 in their last 10 games overall
That means the Bengals are NOT as good as you think, and the Browns (keep it close) and are better than you think...

Picture this... Cleveland has good special teams... Senecca Wallace and the Browns run the wildcat, move the ball some keep it close... The Bengals are trying to work a complex passing game, turn the ball over some, and the Browns exploit that. I actually like the Browns version of the Wilcat. The Bengals have too many ego's, and too much going on... They don't play well on grass and are going to lose this game.

89% like the Bengals to win and the oddsmakers dangled this one out there because they know the odds are actually that the 0-3 Browns play hard in front of the home crowd and win the game.


What out Bengals Backers
Browns +3

[LV420]

Im thinking about the browns also. Maybe the broncos+7 too. Still not 100% sure yet but good luck.

[sweetjones55]

Great analysis, well done.

[sweetjones55]

Only thing you have to wonder is the effort Cleveland will give now being 0-3. They may not play as hard as they did those first 3 games.

[C-Gold]

Only thing you have to wonder is the effort Cleveland will give now being 0-3. They may not play as hard as they did those first 3 games.

Cleveland is 0-3, They lost 2 games by less than 3 points, and they lost to a pissed off Ravens team by 7 points. They are at home playing against a hated division rival that has had trouble playing on Grass. Take the Browns and the points and thank me later.

[sweetjones55]

Cleveland is 0-3, They lost 2 games by less than 3 points, and they lost to a pissed off Ravens team by 7 points. They are at home playing against a hated division rival that has had trouble playing on Grass. Take the Browns and the points and thank me later.

Not arguing with you, I am on the same page. I like the Browns ML, it's definitely the play.

[frpm00]

BOL this weekend with you on this play for pretty much all the same reasons you listed. If this line would of opened higher I would of suspected something but with the line where it is Vegas has everyone right where they want them all over the Bengals.

[C-Gold]

Not arguing with you, I am on the same page. I like the Browns ML, it's definitely the play.

See you at the pay window.

[C-Gold]

BOL this weekend with you on this play for pretty much all the same reasons you listed. If this line would of opened higher I would of suspected something but with the line where it is Vegas has everyone right where they want them all over the Bengals.

Thanks

[C-Gold]