I generally stay away from props but this seems like a reasonable prediction.
-
20Keven Boss (NY) +150000%1Ahmad Bradshaw (NY) +24890%0Tom Brady (NE) -1270%10Plaxico Buress (NY) +14950%0Kevin Faulk (NE) +24890%0Jabar Gaffney (NE) +200000%0Stephen Gostkowski (NE) +150000%0Brandon Jacobs (NY) +19930%0Eli Manning (NY) +7990%3Laurence Maroney (NE) +19930%1Randy Moss (NE) +11980%0Steve Smith (NY) +150000%1Donte Stallworth (NE) +49550%1Amani Toomer (NY) +29840%0Lawrence Tynes (NY) +200000%0Ben Watson (NE) +98250%0Wes Welker (NE) +21450%3Field +3000%0The poll is expired.
-
I have to go with Brady. I don't think I need to explain...though I'd love to see it go to Faulk, Welker or Gaffney.Comment -
For betting purposes i don't believe there is any value in Brady at this price even if he is most likely to win. At the price offered i'm going to go with Maroney, he always looks like he's one step away from breaking a long one!Comment -
I see value in Donte + 4955. I can see him having a deion branch type night in this game. With all the attention going elsewhere I look for Stallworth to be the forgotten one and catch some deep balls for scores. . .Comment -
I voted for Welker..he could do what Branch did..not bad value there.Comment -
Tom Brady (NE) -127 ... this is for sure the next Super Bowl MVP.
He has all the attributes to be the next... easy to predictComment -
On betjamaica you can request odds on any player to win mvp. The
longest shot on the board is pierce at +5000. I was thinking of seeing what kind of odds I can get on Rodney Harrison, maybe like +6000. I figure he has a ton of experience, always comes up with big plays in big spots and if manning is having a bad day he might be able to come up with some big INT'S. Might be worth a small bet in my opinion.Comment -
41 Super Bowls, here's the Super Bowl MVP breakdown:
21 QBs, 7 RBs, 5 WRs, 8 various defensive, 1 KR/PR.
(One year they had a co-mvp of two defensive players, so you can kinda deduct 1 from the total for defensive MVP. I doubt they'll ever have another co-mvp for the Super Bowl.)
So, even if you just pick QB X from the winning team, the true odds should be around +100. I think everyone on this board will agree that Brady is much better than QB X from a Super Bowl winning team. Then again, you must depreciate the number by 20%, factoring in the possibility of an upset. So +120 would be a fair number if, for example, QB X happened to be starting for the Patriots instead of Brady.
Now, you gotta add the "Brady factor" for this prop. He's already won 2 out of 3 Super Bowl MVPs. If he wins again, people are already talking about greatest QB of all time. This year is above and beyond the signature year in his career to this point. Capping it with a Super Bowl MVP almost seems like an afterthought, at least in my mind.
Add to the fact that Super Bowl MVP is basically a fantasy football contest. Pick the player from the winning team that puts up the biggest numbers. Unless Maroney gets 4 TDs, Brady will have more TDs. Brady's WRs have "some" value, but you gotta realize that Brady will have a TD toss for every WR TD reception. Unless Brady tosses a bunch of picks, it's tough to ignore him for MVP under most scenarios. Add to the fact that Brady DOES spread the wealth as far as his pass distribution. Unless you've got a unique angle about what the Giants are going to allow, to exclusion, it's tough to pick any of Brady's supporting cast to somehow overshadow Brady's performance.
Historically, Joe Montana won 3 of 4 MVPs, so if Brady really is the second coming, the writing is on the wall.
The Super Bowl MVP is really Brady's to lose, just the same as the game itself is there for the Patriots to lose. Sure, the Patriots may lose, but it will take something really special for that to happen. Same with the Super Bowl MVP. Sure Brady may put up some "pedestrian" numbers, such as 3 TDs, 2 ints, 220 yards, but Asante Samuel could trump him with 3 picks, running one of them back to the house. That's the kind of special circumstance I'm talking about, and even then it's probably still a coinflip. Last Patriots Super Bowl, I absolutely thought Rodney Harrison deserved the MVP because he really ran the defense that day, IMO, but somehow they gave it to Branch with his 11 catch, 133 yards, 0 TD performance. Brady was 23/33, 236 yards, 2 TDs for that one. So, in the end, any chump can win the MVP if he puts up some fantasy numbers. Funny, I just made a huge case for Welker, because he's bound to at least put up Branch-type MVP numbers. I woulda never have gave Branch the MVP that day, I still scratch my head about that one. Maybe they were hellbent to deprive brady the MVP that particular year. This year will be quite the opposite, IMO, for exactly the same reasons! Fire away getting Brady at -127!Comment -
eli at 8 to 1 isnt that badComment -
How about Wes Welker +2145? This one is very tempting.
One thing about Welker is that he will get plenty of touches (opportunities), as opposed to a guy like Moss who is more of a "home run" threat. Welker is the guy that's more like the leadoff hitter that will eat you up by always getting on base. Welker is a cinch to pile up some nifty fantasy numbers, and a threat to put up some very appealing numbers, if he gets into the endzone more than once. Add to the fact that he'll be doing some return duty, and he's a very solid MVP candidate.
Next is to consider the "Moss factor". Taken together with Moss, Welker/Moss should net the MVP better than 1 out of 10 times. Taken seperately, they should both be around the 20:1 range. Here's where it gets ticklish. Is Moss THAT much better than Welker, from a "fantasy football" standpoint, week in and week out? If you think Welker holds his own just as much as Moss, Welker is a great value at +2185. Otherwise it's a pass. As for taking Moss at +1198, you've gotta either think that Welker is an absolute nobody or that the Giants are somehow going to forget how incredible Moss really is and not gameplan for his unique talent. Personally, I think the Welker line has value at +2185, but it's not mind blowing, just a playable edge.Comment -
Let me break down Maroney, getting +1993, which seems like provacative odds at first glance.
From above, RB X from the winning team is a 5-1 dog, historically. Make it 6-1, if you factor in a Patriots upset.
So, who is RB X?! It's a HOF-stacked list. Riggins, Csonka, Franco, Emmitt, Marcus Allen, Ottis Anderson, Terrell Davis. Plus, nobody has done it since Terrell, which could be a bad sign for RB X backers. As for stats, Maroney needs to get at least 2 TDs, and even then he needs help of nobody else overshadowing him. That's a tall order for such a stacked team. Not to mention the fact that the Giants strength is in defending the run, as opposed the defending the pass, especially in pass-friendly conditions and a team that has unprecidented passing game weapons.
Picking Maroney for Super Bowl MVP is pretty ticklish. If it wasn't for guys like Moss & Welker on this team, getting anything better than +1000 would be excellent value. Adding Welker & Moss is like adding dynamite to a pitbull cage fight. Too many of Maroney's touches & TDs are going to go to Welker, Moss, Stallworth, Faulk, Watson, etc, etc.
If you're hellbent on taking Maroney, +1994 isn't a horrendous mistake. I just don't think there's tremendous value here, unless you really think Maroney has a HOF-type future. For me, it remains to be seen.Comment -
can I put a bet in on Belichick getting the MVP? The true MVP this year for the Patriots.Comment -
am I reading that right? 150-1 odds for Steve Smith?
I'll take it haha for 10 dollars to win 1500Comment -
He doesn't even have an NFL TD yet. If you add up all of his stats during the regular season, he still wouldn't have Super Bowl MVP stats. He's a rookie. He's a #3 WR, so he'll barely get any touches in this offense unless they are forced to throw. He doesn't even return kicks.
If you want to play an insane longshot try Lawrence Tynes or Keven Boss. At least these guys have the capacity to put points on the board.
I like Steve Smith, and don't doubt he may have a bright future in the NFL. I just don't see a breakout game happening in the Super Bowl. Not even at 150-1.Comment -
For 2145 I like Wes Welker, he is the grease that makes N.E. run smooth. Sucks he left Miami. He gets his on Sunday.Comment -
Randy Moss worth a shot at those oddsComment -
I agreeComment -
So now that the MVP has been declared let me ask you this:
How many of you saw that coming?Comment -
Scroll up and look at Junkyard Dog's post. Scroll down a little and see that I agreed with him.
Also, if the Pats pulled it out, it was probably going to Welker or Brady, both I thought were value bets in addition to Manning.
I pretty much nailed this prop on the head, IMHO.Comment -
Glad we hit it slacker
Comment
