Frankly, I don't feel like I have quite got my head into the game yet this season, although I am slightly in profit. It was nice to hit my max bet last week with Denver's win over Seattle, but this week I'm keeping stakes pretty small. Here goes:
Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay
Tampa's home win over Green Bay was one of my more satisfying bets last season, and I'm baccing the Buccs again here, despite my annoyance with their reluctance to break out the orange outfits more often.
As far as this game goes, I note that the Steelers contrived to lose to Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland last year, and they haven't pulled up any trees in going 2-0 this season; a home win in overtime and a victory last week in which they made just seven first downs. Yes, seven, as they racked up all of 127 yards and ONE yard per passing attempt, winning the turnover battle 7-1 yet only winning the game by eight points. Does this sound like a team you want to support on the road for a second week, in a non-conference game?
Sure, it's only Tampa, but they knocked off 2009's top-seeded NFC team last week and I give them a decent chance of knocking off the 2009 champs, with QB Freeman's mobility a plus.
Buccaneers +2.5 for 4 units, ML 4 units (2.2)
Atlanta @ New Orleans
I and my mysterious math consider the Atlanta defense 'over-rated'. They've faced QBs Denis and Derek, but Drew is different. The Falcons are allowing league-worst yards per carry, having given up two TD runs of fifty yards or more. Even off a short week of rest/prep, I like Brees at home a lot more than Ryan away from home, and consider dome advantage to be a big factor.
Saints -4 for 5 units
San Fran @ Kansas City
A teeth-gritting pick, with the Niners travelling off a short week, and a loss no less. Still, at 0-2 this non-conference road game takes on a whole new level of importance and facing a Chiefs team with a false sense of undefeated security might be just what the doctor ordered. Would still be a no-bet game if not for my secret-recipe stats which insist that Chiefs/Niners have been on extreme opposite ends of the luck mirror thus far.
49ers -3 for 3 units
Cleveland @ Baltimore
Statswise these teams are ostensibly, surprisingly close after two weeks - but they've faced very different opposition. For the Ravens this is a home opener at last, and the chance to go 2-1 with a division win under their belts against an opponent they manhandled last season. Still, I fancy that Seneca Wallace might represent a little preparation problem for Baltimore ("are we spelling his name right, coach?") and the Browns are a team I will be playing on a certain amount this season based on certain factors and I'm prepared to make a small play on the backdoor cover here at such a high line.
Browns +10.5 for 3 units
Philadelphia @ Jacksonville
I'm an animal-lover (no, not like that!) but Vick's done the time and I'm enjoying seeing him back in action. Still, as the Eagles head south for a non-conference road game with the McNabbington Redskins next on deck, I note that they didn't really outperform Detroit in any area last week and took a surprising/worrying five sacks.
Jack Del Rio has coordinated defense against Vick before, and there's a Jags DB's coach with first-hand experience of the QB. Minor points if points at all. Anyway, I fancy Jacksonville to make a muscular point on their home field.
Jaguars +3 for 3 units
Denver +5.5 over Indianapolis
Broncs outyardaged Colts in December in a 28-16 loss, picked Manning off three times and could easily have won but for costly miscues. That was on the road, so despite red flags over both teams at the moment in my too-complex-for-NASA handicapping matrix, I'll support Denver at home here.
Broncos +5.5 for 3 units
Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay
Tampa's home win over Green Bay was one of my more satisfying bets last season, and I'm baccing the Buccs again here, despite my annoyance with their reluctance to break out the orange outfits more often.
As far as this game goes, I note that the Steelers contrived to lose to Kansas City, Oakland and Cleveland last year, and they haven't pulled up any trees in going 2-0 this season; a home win in overtime and a victory last week in which they made just seven first downs. Yes, seven, as they racked up all of 127 yards and ONE yard per passing attempt, winning the turnover battle 7-1 yet only winning the game by eight points. Does this sound like a team you want to support on the road for a second week, in a non-conference game?
Sure, it's only Tampa, but they knocked off 2009's top-seeded NFC team last week and I give them a decent chance of knocking off the 2009 champs, with QB Freeman's mobility a plus.
Buccaneers +2.5 for 4 units, ML 4 units (2.2)
Atlanta @ New Orleans
I and my mysterious math consider the Atlanta defense 'over-rated'. They've faced QBs Denis and Derek, but Drew is different. The Falcons are allowing league-worst yards per carry, having given up two TD runs of fifty yards or more. Even off a short week of rest/prep, I like Brees at home a lot more than Ryan away from home, and consider dome advantage to be a big factor.
Saints -4 for 5 units
San Fran @ Kansas City
A teeth-gritting pick, with the Niners travelling off a short week, and a loss no less. Still, at 0-2 this non-conference road game takes on a whole new level of importance and facing a Chiefs team with a false sense of undefeated security might be just what the doctor ordered. Would still be a no-bet game if not for my secret-recipe stats which insist that Chiefs/Niners have been on extreme opposite ends of the luck mirror thus far.
49ers -3 for 3 units
Cleveland @ Baltimore
Statswise these teams are ostensibly, surprisingly close after two weeks - but they've faced very different opposition. For the Ravens this is a home opener at last, and the chance to go 2-1 with a division win under their belts against an opponent they manhandled last season. Still, I fancy that Seneca Wallace might represent a little preparation problem for Baltimore ("are we spelling his name right, coach?") and the Browns are a team I will be playing on a certain amount this season based on certain factors and I'm prepared to make a small play on the backdoor cover here at such a high line.
Browns +10.5 for 3 units
Philadelphia @ Jacksonville
I'm an animal-lover (no, not like that!) but Vick's done the time and I'm enjoying seeing him back in action. Still, as the Eagles head south for a non-conference road game with the McNabbington Redskins next on deck, I note that they didn't really outperform Detroit in any area last week and took a surprising/worrying five sacks.
Jack Del Rio has coordinated defense against Vick before, and there's a Jags DB's coach with first-hand experience of the QB. Minor points if points at all. Anyway, I fancy Jacksonville to make a muscular point on their home field.
Jaguars +3 for 3 units
Denver +5.5 over Indianapolis
Broncs outyardaged Colts in December in a 28-16 loss, picked Manning off three times and could easily have won but for costly miscues. That was on the road, so despite red flags over both teams at the moment in my too-complex-for-NASA handicapping matrix, I'll support Denver at home here.
Broncos +5.5 for 3 units
