NFL Betting: Saints Host Falcons in Big Easy
The NFL betting spread set by the oddsmakers for the Sunday matchup at the Superdome has been a point of debate all week. The Falcons and Saints met on this very field last November with New Orleans taking a 35-27 win. There's been very little change in the personnel since then for both teams, so why is the line just a 3½- to 4½-point spread? FOX has the broadcast for this battle starting at 1 p.m. ET.
NFL oddsmakers have set a seemingly sharp line for Sunday afternoon’s matchup between the New Orleans Saints (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) and Atlanta Falcons (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) at the Superdome (1 p.m. ET, FOX).
What’s interesting about the 3½- to 4½-point spread is just how much of a disparity there is between this number and the line that was available when the Saints hosted the Falcons in the Big Easy last November.
Before the spread was released following New Orleans’ last-second 25-22 win over San Francisco (+4½) on Monday night, I figured the number would be in the vicinity of Saints -5.
After all, New Orleans was 4½-point chalk on the NFL betting odds board heading into its Week 1 win over Minnesota, and saw the same number on the road against the 49ers.
The Saints should be able to beat the Falcons at home straight up, but by a touchdown? New Orleans managed to defeat the Vikings by five, and it was lucky to get past San Francisco on the road.
Atlanta can surely hang with Drew Brees and company after thrashing Arizona 41-7 last week, but can it keep the game within a field goal? Again, the Saints at -3½ to -4½ will have squares scratching their heads all week.
My problem? New Orleans was an 11-point favorite when it defeated Atlanta 35-27 in the teams’ meeting at the Superdome last season. Has that much changed between now and then to justify such a drastic shift in public opinion? Not a chance.
Consider the Saints were 10-point faves when they defeated the Falcons 26-23 at the Georgia Dome last December. Yes, Atlanta covered with Mark Redman under center in place of injured starter Matt Ryan, but that still doesn’t account for the disparity.
Let’s be generous and say Ryan is worth six points to the spread. If that were the case, the Falcons would have been 4-point underdogs at home to the Saints last season. For Sunday’s game on the road, Atlanta is getting the same four points from New Orleans. It doesn’t make any sense.
The rosters are virtually the same as last season, and there’s no empirical evidence through two weeks to suggest the Saints aren’t anything but a Super Bowl contender, and that the Falcons aren’t a possible, if not likely, playoff team.
I’m not suggesting NFL oddsmakers are wrong, because they’re offering a number that’s a reflection of public opinion. My premise is public bettors are off in their perception of both teams. New Orleans is in the range of a 4-point fave against Atlanta, but it should be laying a touchdown.
The good news is the Saints aren’t giving a TD to the Falcons, and that’s why you should jump all over them in this game.
Look, I understand Atlanta cashed in both games last year, but like I said, it was getting 11 points in the matchup at the Superdome, not the four points it’s getting right now.
New Orleans won by eight in this spot last season, and I see a similar outcome on Sunday.
The Saints had trouble with the Niners in the Monday nighter, and I’d suspect that has some bettors shying away from them. The Falcons, on the other hand, destroyed the Cardinals as 7-point chalk at the Georgia Dome.
I’ll be the first one to tell you New Orleans was fortunate against San Francisco, which shot itself in the foot to help Saints backers. But bettors shouldn’t be surprised it was a close game.
The 49ers have one of the best defenses in the NFC, and it was helped big-time by the howling winds at Candlestick Park. I suspect San Francisco’s loss at Seattle in Week 1 was an outlier.
Keep in mind Atlanta couldn’t get past a Ben Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh team in its opener, and while it pounded Arizona, this isn’t the same Cards squad now that Kurt Warner is retired.
Reggie Bush (fractured right fibula) is out 4-6 weeks after leaving in the second half of the Monday nighter. New Orleans averaged 38 points per game in going 2-0 SU and ATS last season in games that Bush missed.
The total for Sunday’s game is available between 49 and 50. Atlanta is 1-7 O/U in its last eight games.
The NFL betting spread set by the oddsmakers for the Sunday matchup at the Superdome has been a point of debate all week. The Falcons and Saints met on this very field last November with New Orleans taking a 35-27 win. There's been very little change in the personnel since then for both teams, so why is the line just a 3½- to 4½-point spread? FOX has the broadcast for this battle starting at 1 p.m. ET.
NFL oddsmakers have set a seemingly sharp line for Sunday afternoon’s matchup between the New Orleans Saints (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) and Atlanta Falcons (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) at the Superdome (1 p.m. ET, FOX).
What’s interesting about the 3½- to 4½-point spread is just how much of a disparity there is between this number and the line that was available when the Saints hosted the Falcons in the Big Easy last November.
Before the spread was released following New Orleans’ last-second 25-22 win over San Francisco (+4½) on Monday night, I figured the number would be in the vicinity of Saints -5.
After all, New Orleans was 4½-point chalk on the NFL betting odds board heading into its Week 1 win over Minnesota, and saw the same number on the road against the 49ers.
The Saints should be able to beat the Falcons at home straight up, but by a touchdown? New Orleans managed to defeat the Vikings by five, and it was lucky to get past San Francisco on the road.
Atlanta can surely hang with Drew Brees and company after thrashing Arizona 41-7 last week, but can it keep the game within a field goal? Again, the Saints at -3½ to -4½ will have squares scratching their heads all week.
My problem? New Orleans was an 11-point favorite when it defeated Atlanta 35-27 in the teams’ meeting at the Superdome last season. Has that much changed between now and then to justify such a drastic shift in public opinion? Not a chance.
Consider the Saints were 10-point faves when they defeated the Falcons 26-23 at the Georgia Dome last December. Yes, Atlanta covered with Mark Redman under center in place of injured starter Matt Ryan, but that still doesn’t account for the disparity.
Let’s be generous and say Ryan is worth six points to the spread. If that were the case, the Falcons would have been 4-point underdogs at home to the Saints last season. For Sunday’s game on the road, Atlanta is getting the same four points from New Orleans. It doesn’t make any sense.
The rosters are virtually the same as last season, and there’s no empirical evidence through two weeks to suggest the Saints aren’t anything but a Super Bowl contender, and that the Falcons aren’t a possible, if not likely, playoff team.
I’m not suggesting NFL oddsmakers are wrong, because they’re offering a number that’s a reflection of public opinion. My premise is public bettors are off in their perception of both teams. New Orleans is in the range of a 4-point fave against Atlanta, but it should be laying a touchdown.
The good news is the Saints aren’t giving a TD to the Falcons, and that’s why you should jump all over them in this game.
Look, I understand Atlanta cashed in both games last year, but like I said, it was getting 11 points in the matchup at the Superdome, not the four points it’s getting right now.
New Orleans won by eight in this spot last season, and I see a similar outcome on Sunday.
The Saints had trouble with the Niners in the Monday nighter, and I’d suspect that has some bettors shying away from them. The Falcons, on the other hand, destroyed the Cardinals as 7-point chalk at the Georgia Dome.
I’ll be the first one to tell you New Orleans was fortunate against San Francisco, which shot itself in the foot to help Saints backers. But bettors shouldn’t be surprised it was a close game.
The 49ers have one of the best defenses in the NFC, and it was helped big-time by the howling winds at Candlestick Park. I suspect San Francisco’s loss at Seattle in Week 1 was an outlier.
Keep in mind Atlanta couldn’t get past a Ben Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh team in its opener, and while it pounded Arizona, this isn’t the same Cards squad now that Kurt Warner is retired.
Reggie Bush (fractured right fibula) is out 4-6 weeks after leaving in the second half of the Monday nighter. New Orleans averaged 38 points per game in going 2-0 SU and ATS last season in games that Bush missed.
The total for Sunday’s game is available between 49 and 50. Atlanta is 1-7 O/U in its last eight games.
