A lot of my bets have to do with not only stats but philosophy.
Not that I want to bet on all these games but there are a few that I think are worth looking at:
KC +1 (believing in themselves after a huge win vs SD, Cleveland meanwhile just lost a game they were confident they could win. KC D should be able to hold Cleveland and the offense should be able to out score the browns)
Green Bay -13.5 (Playing the Bills D and now with Grant gone, they should throw more. The weakness of the packers is there pass D, but when facing mediocre wr's, there secondary becomes a strength for them because they are ball hawks (woodson, collins, williams). You gotta think the Packers will beat them 14-0 in one of the quarters and if they do the bills will have to outscore them the other three quarters, can they? Green Bay most likely will put up at least 31, can the Bills score 17? I say no)
Tennessee -220 (I don't see this being a blowout by any standards, and I would stay away from the -5.5, if you saw the game last week, Pitt simply cannot score because Dennis Dixon is not good. For me I look at it this way, Vince Young is just about as good as Dixon, so it comes down to Johnson vs. Mendenhall. I'll take Johnson and Titans offense.)
Seattle +3.5 (Very risky play but based on last week they looked good. Playing on the road is a worry but the 3.5 points could save them and could be good value)
Houston -3 (Texans not only beat the Colts last week but they made a statement. Confidence high as ever, and you know they are being told this week that, that win means nothing without a win this week. They will be focused and ready to go. That being said the redskins got lucky. Bonehead plays by dallas gave them the win, and lets not forget this is the same bad redskins team last year they just have a new qb and coach. I'll take Houstons offense vs. Redskins (6 points))
St. Louis +3.5 (Yes the rams, this one is also very risky and if Jackson is out, I would not touch this one. One the road in California is a concern, but the first thing that jumps out at me is the raiders line. If the rams can get pressure they can shut down the raiders offense. The Rams success on offense will be handing the ball off. Stephen Jackson is still a beast and can run all over the raiders, but only if they give him a chance. If Bradford throws 50 times again, he will make mistakes and they will lose.
Atlanta -7 (At home, dissapointed from last week they know they have to bounce back. Arizona is traveling across the nation, and with Anderson leading the way I think this could be their statement week. Arizona scored 17 last week againest the lowly Rams. I know Fitzgerald had a rough game, but if the Falcons score in the 20's they will most likely cover)
Colts -240 (Colts 0-2...I don't think so. Peyton is the better brother, and not happy about last week. Colts usually dick around with teams until the fourth quarter then come back. Last week they did, and it didn't work. From opening kickoff to the end of the game, I think you will see a more consistent Colts team.)
Saints -5 (You see the 49ers last week? That was awful, and people that think Singletary will have them ready to go this week, did he not have them ready for week 1? He might be angry with them and practice probably wasn't fun this week for them but all that will do for them is scrutinize there performance. Meanwhile the saints, getting a week and half off are nice and rested. Going to the west coast could hurt them, but don't forget Brees played in San Diego. World champs beat the vikes by 5 last week, and will beat SF by more this week)
Not that I want to bet on all these games but there are a few that I think are worth looking at:
KC +1 (believing in themselves after a huge win vs SD, Cleveland meanwhile just lost a game they were confident they could win. KC D should be able to hold Cleveland and the offense should be able to out score the browns)
Green Bay -13.5 (Playing the Bills D and now with Grant gone, they should throw more. The weakness of the packers is there pass D, but when facing mediocre wr's, there secondary becomes a strength for them because they are ball hawks (woodson, collins, williams). You gotta think the Packers will beat them 14-0 in one of the quarters and if they do the bills will have to outscore them the other three quarters, can they? Green Bay most likely will put up at least 31, can the Bills score 17? I say no)
Tennessee -220 (I don't see this being a blowout by any standards, and I would stay away from the -5.5, if you saw the game last week, Pitt simply cannot score because Dennis Dixon is not good. For me I look at it this way, Vince Young is just about as good as Dixon, so it comes down to Johnson vs. Mendenhall. I'll take Johnson and Titans offense.)
Seattle +3.5 (Very risky play but based on last week they looked good. Playing on the road is a worry but the 3.5 points could save them and could be good value)
Houston -3 (Texans not only beat the Colts last week but they made a statement. Confidence high as ever, and you know they are being told this week that, that win means nothing without a win this week. They will be focused and ready to go. That being said the redskins got lucky. Bonehead plays by dallas gave them the win, and lets not forget this is the same bad redskins team last year they just have a new qb and coach. I'll take Houstons offense vs. Redskins (6 points))
St. Louis +3.5 (Yes the rams, this one is also very risky and if Jackson is out, I would not touch this one. One the road in California is a concern, but the first thing that jumps out at me is the raiders line. If the rams can get pressure they can shut down the raiders offense. The Rams success on offense will be handing the ball off. Stephen Jackson is still a beast and can run all over the raiders, but only if they give him a chance. If Bradford throws 50 times again, he will make mistakes and they will lose.
Atlanta -7 (At home, dissapointed from last week they know they have to bounce back. Arizona is traveling across the nation, and with Anderson leading the way I think this could be their statement week. Arizona scored 17 last week againest the lowly Rams. I know Fitzgerald had a rough game, but if the Falcons score in the 20's they will most likely cover)
Colts -240 (Colts 0-2...I don't think so. Peyton is the better brother, and not happy about last week. Colts usually dick around with teams until the fourth quarter then come back. Last week they did, and it didn't work. From opening kickoff to the end of the game, I think you will see a more consistent Colts team.)
Saints -5 (You see the 49ers last week? That was awful, and people that think Singletary will have them ready to go this week, did he not have them ready for week 1? He might be angry with them and practice probably wasn't fun this week for them but all that will do for them is scrutinize there performance. Meanwhile the saints, getting a week and half off are nice and rested. Going to the west coast could hurt them, but don't forget Brees played in San Diego. World champs beat the vikes by 5 last week, and will beat SF by more this week)